johnholmes
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Posts posted by johnholmes
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The fact, assuming it is fact, that the models (synoptic ones) are showing, at times, a more unsettled/changeable set up has zilch to do with any prospect of a cold regime, from Greenland-Arctic northern Scandinavia. What might happen mid month is beyond my scope but what little I understand about longer term teleconnections does not suggest any major pattern swing by then. Of course we simply do not know with the data we can access. UK Met with their access to huge amounts from any model centre they wish to access, including their own, seem dubious, at the moment, of any marked change to deep cold out to early December. But it is fun to try and outsmart them which is why so many of us scan the models and try to look for signs of white falling from the sky at our our own location.So long as we respect one another's point of view and keep of the personal digs etc the upcoming months can be enjoyable and interesting.
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overcast with spots of rain, a low of 10.0 now on 11.3C
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The mean ridge only becomes noticeable towards the end of the gefs run (day 13 onwards). The 8/14 day average output is hardly going to pick that up knocks?
And as such has a pretty low probability of being anything more than, IF it verifies, a 24 perhaps 48 hours burst of Pm air. Until the anomaly charts start to solidly show such development then what most folk on here want, lengthy cold is unlikely in my view.
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for Cantley
Cantley weather summary for October 2015
Maximum temperature 0.9C above average but the mean shows 0.3C due to slightly lower minimums. A fairly wet month overall but with 16 days showing no rainfall at all.
Mean=11.6 (11.3)
Avge Max=15.5 (14.6) Highest daytime=20.8 on the 2nd and the coldest day was 24th with 12.4
Avge Min=7.7 (7.9) the coldest night 25th with 3.2 and the warmest night was 6th with 15.0
No thunder hail or snow but fog on 3 mornings
Rainfall 63.4 mm with the wettest day 6th with 20.0 mm; 10 days with 0.2 mm or more and 8 with 1.0 mm or more
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Dull, damp, sky obscured in fog, a low earlier in the night of 9.3C, now 10.1C
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roll on the Atlantic having more say, more variety then, 2 days of dismal, misty, murky conditions for here. another day with single digit maximum
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not sure if the system will let me post this in the format I have created it.
If not I attempted to equate the post above by Frosty for the same date with the 500mb chart
Is the 06z for 12/11/15 that frosty shows, see below for 500mb chart anything like the 500mb anomaly for 6-10 days ahead?
12/11 GFS 500mb
Looking at the output below the GFS version is more westerly with a source zone from NE Canada/West Greenland.
The NOAA chart has the source from further south and a south of west flow over the UK.
Fairly minor really and it is possible for a temporary shift in the flow over a 24-48 hour period. So it is a possibility but about 50:50 I would think for now.
NOAA 6-10 current chart
Nope but you can check yourself if sufficiently interested with the links below
last evening from NOAA 6-10
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
and Net Wx Extra for 500mb for 11 Nov
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nothing showing on GFS data outputs which the link below use even at 8000ft out to the end of the forecast for my area of interest
http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/europe/switzerland/weather-lauberhorn/details/S067291/#trend
73 days to the race and nothing to show yet-last year was about the same around this time.
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Little sign to me on the anomaly charts I use of anything altering in a major way within the next 2 weeks.
links below
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
It would seem that anything changing is going to be beyond the 2 week period for it to have any marked change on the upper air pattern. Minor changes will obviously occur but, what most are looking for, a lengthy cold outbreak is not showing yet.
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cloudy, dry, no fog, this cleared in the early hours, a low of 7.5C
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Not understand what is that light on the horizon please?
lovely evening here, 150m says it all, got up to maybe 500m for a time, a mx of 9.4C, not far off my November average but looks sad at the side of 17.1C 24 hours ago!
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still foggy with sky obscured, this time yesterday sunny with clear blue sky after morning fog, temperature currently 8.5C from a high of 9.4C
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Thick fog with nil vertical visibility again and a low so far of 7.6C.
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Indeed I cannot see any major change over the UK from what is predicted by the anomaly charts. Obviously Atlantic weather systems will affect some parts from time to time but any sign of the major trough coming east seem unlikely for 2 weeks.
see 8-14 NOAA in knockers post above.
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The dull foggy morning finally cleared around lunch time and the afternoon is just lovely, no wind, blue skies, and a temperature at the moment of 17.0C
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Dense fog with sky obscured after a clear start with shallow fog patches around midnight, a low then of 7.7C, now on 9.9C
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6 days of snow in January with 3 days lying, 2 consecutive, not bad for this area
May was pretty wet with 15mm on one day along with a coolish month
June had a very warm end with a mean of 19.0C for the last 6 days and a high of 31.8C the last day
This continued into July with my highest value in 18 years on the 1st with 34.8C, and this has only once been exceeded, as far as I know in this area, RAF Finningley 3 August 1990 with 35.5C
August was very wet with 91.8mm and 22.1mm on 22 along with a fairly impressive couple of storms that evening.
September was notable for the number of consecutive mornings with fog=6, probably the highest in a very long time
so some notable weather for me so far
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A very interesting year its been as far as weather is concerned,
But at least my cobweb covered electric fan got a chance to do the twist and shout for two days on June 30th, hopefully next year it will be doing more of the same. But apart from that:
The dreaded North/South devide dominating all summer giving headache as im in the North.
Watching fantastic thunderstorms on July 1st
Sudden snow fall in Janurary
your weather means little to anyone else as you have no town in your avatar, so sadly we have no idea where you are?
any chance of you putting your location in your avatar please?
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It will be interesting to watch which model consistently and correctly predicts a change in pattern from the current set up. Will it be the anomaly charts or the synoptic models? That is within a 15 day time scale as the anomaly charts only go out that far.
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dry with a lot of cloud, mostly low St with Ci visible above, a low of 9.9C
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Clody with ocnl rain, 2.8mm so far and a low of 9.6C
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Im glad this Continental HP cell is here now and not deep in Winter.......Im looking forward to a Pattern change come end of November with a lovely backed West Scandi High cell allowing for fog frosts and colder weather, then migrating North North West for a lovely snowy Mid December NE to occur bringing snow and ice and cold...........Yum...and staying in place until March
I expect you believe in Santa Claus as well!
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see the last flight of XH558 made on Wednesday 28 October 2015
read lots about it and what the future holds for the aircraft and the Trust at
http://www.vulcantothesky.org/
link to the final flight video, not sure how long it will be available for
C:\Users\John\Pictures\final vulcan flight Wednesday 28 October 2015.htm
enjoy
John
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Dry but mainly cloudy, mostly St but some Ci above visible, a low early on of 6.6C now on 9.6C
Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by johnholmes
not really what he said, 'less mild, drier, was what I heard, no mention of a northerly unless I missed that?
the link see what you believe John Hammond said
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34741548