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johnholmes

Retired Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by johnholmes

    Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    Quite a change on the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts this morning and not like the NOAA outputs last evening either. Too early to be confident for cold lovers but they certainly show what they want, see link below. These two, over the past couple of years have on a few occasions been the first to show a pattern change that turned out to be correct. However I would urge caution until they show continuity over at least 2-3 days and that the NOAA outputs also show similar.Nothing on the GFS MJO output suggests that the 500mb pattern is anything other than a short affair IF at all yet.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    the output from NAEFS also supports the above charts

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

    We will all know by this time next week if the above chart predictions were correct!

    • Like 6

    Tuesday 10th November General Weather Chat

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

    Autumn 2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

    Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    To me it seems the overall pattern for a couple of weeks is an unsettled westerly over the Atlantic and into Europe. So a mix of Tm and Pm air for most with the Pm air most noticeable and most frequent for more northern parts. If you like a nw-n/se-s split. Possibly some pretty deep lows passing between Iceland and Scotland at times so windy as well in association with them.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There are differences between the ECMWF-GFS upper pattern and that of NOAA. This in the ne Canada/Greenland area and further north. It is unclear just yet which pattern will be nearer the mark. It is not often that NOAA is wrong in these pattern changes but we have to wait and see.

    links below

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    • Like 1

    Starting at the bottom

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    don't apologise Paddy, we all have to learn and folk on here will be willing to help you. start with the most simple and gradually work up. Both with observing data and learning how to read the models. Try the Net Wx Guides for help with the models but don't leave. It's a fascinating hobby and almost all on here are 'weather nuts'

    regards

    John

    Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The anomaly charts still show a generally westerly 500mb flow out to day 14/15 and perhaps beyond. The 'kink' that ECMWF-GFS showed in the flow yesterday has gone this morning. NOAA has so far not suggested that option. The only possible glimpse of this is the smallish +ve heights shown NE Canada-western Greenland.

    Nothing substantial enough to really excite any cold watcher.

    links below

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    for slightly further ahead the MJO (GFS version)

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

    actual and predict show nothing more than 1-3.

    link to probable 500mb pattern for November for those below

    http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    Big call Bristle Boy. Its just another model Ian is using, so why should that be right?

     

    Bristle Boy's comment is a prime example of 'discussion killing'. A post from a person giving information from a source not available to members here.

     

    Because Ian has posted that comment, it now means people will be unwilling to discuss the GFS output.

    I take your point MPG but if we look at the statistics for 10 days, using the data seen when Gibby posts, or available off the NOAA site, then GFS and for that matter ECMWF are little better than a 1 in 3 to 4 chance of being correct. UK Met have a great deal we don’t see as you rightly comment but the input from Ian’s TV discussions with the senior man at Exeter do help throw some light on why they at times make subtle changes to their 6-15 or 16-30 day outlooks.

    Today is an example, yesterday no mention of any change today, link below

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    But the bit which may interest those wanting cold is

    ‘..though tending to turn somewhat colder in the north later.’

     

    All we have is the anomaly charts from various sources and looking at what the MJO, AO and NAO suggest. Within some bounds I find this input can be helpful to make me widen my checking of the data we have available to try and arrive at my own balanced view of how things may develop.

    • Like 4
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