johnholmes

ta for that mate, not sure if I ever got round to doing part 2? Part 2 has been done along with other illustrations of using these charts. When/if I get time I will put them all into 1 post as a pdf with a heading to make them easy to find. Then it is not cluttering up the current model thread.

Be very careful about anomalies. It takes a lot of watching these charts to feel reasonably confident in using the anomaly part. Knocker explains the colours fine but be careful. The best thing is to look at the contours, if you like isobars at 500mb around 18000ft. They govern what happens at the surface rather more than the other way round. Watching the 'anomaly' charts will give a good feel for what the upper air pattern is likely to be 6-15 days down the line. As with all charts from whatever source, continuity and consistency are key to making a considered judgement on the upper air pattern. Over the years I have found them, with a lot of care and time analysing them each day, as more consistent and accurate than the 2x or 4x synoptic outputs from GFS/ECMWF etc. Somewhere in the Guides is a post from me about using them, not sure just where, you might find it useful. The really hard part is then trying to work out what the surface pattern will be beneath the 500mb pattern. Much more difficult but the upper pattern will give a good guide to the overall type of weather, settled or unsettled, or changeable, warmer or colder than average, wetter or drier than average. Hope that helps and if you want please pm me and I am happy to chat about them to you.

Using the 500mb anomaly charts it will be interesting to see which of them is closer to reality come the month end NOAA has slowly moved at 6-10 day time frames to what is shown below. This would suggest surface high pressure will develop beneath the upper ridge and +ve height anomaly. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php If you move to its 8-14 day outlook then this idea is persisted with. Indeed it was the 8-14 that showed a ridge and +ve heights before it got into the 6-10 day time frame. Below is the latest from EC-GFS, neither really support the NOAA version http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html When there is this divergence it is rare in the years I have been using these that they give a better handle on things than the NOAA outputs. This is especially so when both the 6-10 and 8-14 show similar patterns. So by month end do we have a mobile westerly with some decrease in that effect for the SE 1/4 of the UK or is the NOAA idea more likely giving more settled conditions over a larger part of the UK? Interesting to see how this plays out. My money is on the NOAA version. No sign of any major cold plunge in the next 2-3 weeks either in my estimation.

the sun is out after rain earlier, quite breezy as well, some lumpy looking C moving in from the west, a low of 11.9C overnight but still falling and now on 11.0C; the dewpoint also falling, this more quickly now on 6.9C from 11.7C at 0656

wonderful orange sunrise with a light SW breeze and a low, another double figure one, of 10.2C

lovely short walk in the breeze, sunshine at times and some lovely colours in the trees/shrubs around here, feeling very mild, maybe even use the word warm this morning even in the wind.

This thread, okay it is the moaning thread, but it is almost as bad as the one for the most boring months. Many of the entries in there are about years that none of the posters have experienced so reading either another persons' version or making up their own based on data. In this thread how anyone can say the weather is boring is a bit of a laugh. Perhaps they mean there is no sign of biting cold northerlies with the prospect of frost and snow? An ex hurricane is going to affect the country, its exact track not yet clear. Is that not interesting on a weather forum? The will the OPI or not be an indicator come 31 October for the coming winter. Have a look in the world wide weather for interest if you feel it is boring in your own back yard. There is always weather of interest somewhere now we have access to the web. Be it rain, wind, snow or whatever that is your favourite. Stacks of web cams to watch the weather around the world. Watch the snow advance south on them, all sorts of things to interest you if you are a genuine weather fan I would have thought. Do your own statistics for your area, either from your own weather station or the nearest one, when was the last time this or that occurred, how long since a particular event, I am never bored for very long with so much to play around with in terms of actual weather and statistics. Failing all else get outside in the garden, go for a walk, lovely round here this morning as the wind got up and started to blow the leaves down, many with lovely colours catching in the sun. end of jh sermon!

dry, mild again overnight, 3/4 cloud cover from Sc through Ac and Ci, the low just 14.6C, way above the average overnight vlaue for October

20C maximum today, I suspect not many more of those for a few months

a 'like' of 24 posts there Steve, well earned in my view, worth reading for anyone who has not read it along with the well ilustrated charts. We have our differences Steve come winter but if you post charts like that I could become a convert!

A cloudy and very mild start after some rain/showers in the early hours, a low of 15.3C, more like in a summer very warm spell than the 3rd week in October.

dry with half cloud coer giving a nice yellow/orange sunrise, a shower around 0400, another mild night with a double figure low of 11.7C

Glad to hear you are enjoying it Nick, temperature is of course only one aspect you will be forecasting for; others being rain and wind speeds, tidal surges, and no doubt frost and snow probabilities over the winter. The last two in particular should test you. Let me know when you finish a duty feeling as if you have been through a mangle (sorry as a youngster=used to be used for wringing out out clothes)!

Not a very scientific input. Of course winters over the last 100 years or so have been more mild than cold. Is that what you mean perhaps?

The last 2 posts sum up what I posted about UK Met model outputs to a large extent. As MH suggests the November outputs may give a more accurate assessment but this stage we have no idea whether that will be to continue their current ideas or to go for a more blocked set up. Currently we have most professional outputs suggesting not cold or at least no major signs of cold and the less qualified outputs, (no slur intended), suggesting something better, that is in terms of cold lovers hopes for the coming winter. It is a fascinating watch to see which is closer to the mark.

I am a bit unsure as to how you make that statement. Okay let's take just the one output. The EC version does indeed show +ve anomalies into southern UK but of more impact I would suggest is the contour pattern. This shows a broad fairly westerly flow and quite strong suggesting a rather unsettled type of weather pattern. Maybe less so for the SE quarter. It is just one output from one model and if you look at the GFS version it shows even less suggestion of any really settled weather. The EC version fits more closely with the trend over the past few days on all 3 main anomaly charts and often the NOAA turns out nearer to the actual pattern when there are differences. This has kept the idea of a strongish westerly flow originating from the northern end of the Gt Lakes which would suggest again unsettled for most and not especially feeling warm/mild particularly in wind and rain.

don't lose heart with just one output, and even then if the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 shows different again don't lose heart. As with ANY model output it is pretty useless just taking one output you have to watch them over several days for any consistent signals of the status quo persisting or what looks like a genuine change in pattern. Something that is a necessity with the 500mb anomaly charts. That being the case, my comments on my daily file on the anomaly charts has this comment which may be of interest, written yesterday evening, updated after seeing the morning output from ec-gfs Noaa 6-10 It is a similar chart to its last few, re trough having become more rounded, small +ve near azores, some indication of slight ridgining/+ve heights gt lakes and the continuation of ridging slightly and +ve heights w of the marked trough s of Alaska. Something that I commented on in net wx HAD been absent in the first part of October unlike much of last October. ?? Is it this responsible for the decreasing –ve OPI values=I am am not sure but it may be having some effect. The ec-gfs has also shown something along these lines over the past few runs 8-14 and as is often the case it continues the ‘smoothing’ out of troughs/ridges with its treatment of the far w of the chart, alaska and west

at last some blue sky and dry after rain overnight, no wind, current low is 11.2C, higher than the maximum on Sunday!

No one no matter how brilliant a scientist can predict 3 months in advance. All we have at the moment from a known scientific viewpoint are the models being shown, as with UK Met, that suggest no deep cold at any stage. The other side is the apparent links with northern Eurasian snow cover OPI etc that suggest otherwise. Being realistic, who knows, by the 1 March we will all know. For the time being it gives everyone an outlet for their views, cold or mild, in between, a bit of both or don't know-no one can ridicule anyone else or any model at this time in October.

then it goes against their current model outputs for the winter period, see link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob For what it is worth these signals have been consistent for Nov-Jan for the last 3 issues

it started dry and cloudy, slight drizzle at moment, a light 'drift' from ENE and a low of 10.2C

thanks for that, an interesting read although it is for N America and although the wavelength predicted looks more favourable for western Europe/UK it is not all that clear to me

Comparing the 500mb anomaly charts last year to this year so far in October. There are some similarities but also non similarities. Look just west of the western coast of N America at the +ve area of heights which shows in 2013 for much of the month. So far this year that has been largely absent. Just how much effect that subsequently had I am not able to say with any certainty. What it does set up though is a different wave length pattern. Maybe if we see little or no sign of this in the 500mb anomaly outputs then a somewhat different late October into November MAY result. Beyond that and I don’t pretend to be able to suggest anything. Perhaps the new favourite MIGHT help for a winter prediction? I tried to import the two files October 2013 and October 2014 but cannot get my pc to do it, no doubt it is my renowned non compatibility with anything computer related causing this, so sorry. Please take my word for the above being correct.

copying this para from the post by Gibby in the model thread and as PM suggests more relevant to this thread perhaps? That's not to say of course the UK won't have a cold Winter this year but it does indicate that the Jet Flow behaviour and synoptics to the West of the UK have far more bearing on UK weather at anytime of the year than anything happening a thousand miles or so to the East. In Winter we need a Jet flow exiting the States well South of normal and its continuation on this Southerly course over the Atlantic under the absence of the Azores High and the presence of Northern blocking. This would keep the UK on the cold side of the Jet Flow and encourage pressure to rise over Northern latitudes with relatively lower pressure over the UK possible within this setup increases our chances of snow significantly. I am rather surprised at this comment Gibby, one cannot dismiss effects well east or well west. Have you thought that perhaps the jet stream is affected by events both on the surface and through the whole atmosphere, wherever it flow in the northern hemisphere. To suggest that Eurasian snow cover has little effect and that the movement and intensity of the Azores high or jet stream are entirely independent of such factors is a bit naive in my view. In meteorology nothing is independent really of anything else. This is why even in synoptic meteorology models go wrong at even short time scales. Not enough weight perhaps given to one parameter or another. This is equally true for longer term forecasts or seasonal ideas.Many years ago no one understood many of the connections which we amateurs now take for granted so we learn something new each year. Just what the links are between SST's, Eurasian snow cover, AO,, NAO, ENSO or even the current flavour of the season OPI is still being researched. It does make for fascinating reading though.

Cloudy, quite breezy (N'ly) and ocnl light rain, a low of 10.7C