johnholmes

In terms of science I suppose one of the few links we have into what any met centre has is the Met O global/European model output at 2-6 months in advance. This attempts, note the word (!), to show what anomalies the model is predicting for 500mb heights, rainfall and 2m temperatures. So far, over the past 3 months its suggestions for 2m T is NOT what any cold lover would hope for, with the current September prediction available. link below, make of it what you want. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

the reason for being there, were occasional thunderstorms and being the stopoff point on the flight path to Falklands Not sure where you get that from Jo? During my time on Ascension and Falkland that was not true, but you may have more recent information? regards John

The anomaly charts, having been fairly consistent between the 3 I use show a change this morning, links below, with EC-GFS showing quite marked differences between one another and neither is that much like the NOAA 6-10 day issue from last evening. My own well known view is that when they differ then doubt has to be high over any predicted upper air pattern or any emphasis on either a settled or unsettled pattern to the weather. Even less can any credence, in my view, be put on the 2 major synoptic models past 5-6 days ahead. EC-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Cloudy yet again, no wind, dry with a low of 14.0C

at last sun today, plenty of warm sunshine with almost no wind this afternoon, a high of 22.3C

Is it possible to put the 'winter' outlooks in the winter thread please and keep this to model no further than 384h please?

Started dull, overcast and foggy, about 7-800m, no wind; it is thinning now with some form visible to the cloud, overcast low St, a low of 12.8C. Oh for the sunshine some folks have been having over the last few days.

on another topic=UK Met forecast system They appear to have started to change it since this morning. I suppose I will get used to it eventually. Not over impressed just now though. Anyone else had a look at their 'new' forecast pages?

that sums up how accurate any model is, even when a mix of models or ensembles are used by professional forecasters. They get it right some of the time but certainly not all of the time. But I suspect they are more right than some amateur ideas but then so they should be.

not a total favourite of Wilki but maybe this is a good enough explanation? see link below http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex

I would tend to back knocker up about the frequent use of the term PV and it is quite often not used correctly, again in my view. Using a term like a deep vortex over the N Atlantic, even perhaps with words like, seeming to be linked back to the main PV, would be better. A bit pedantic perhaps but it is very easy for specific terms in meteorology to get mis used, again in my view, others may of course disagree.

Another overcast misty start, just outside fog limits, 600m at the airport though, a low of 13.1C and very little breeze. It's now 4 days since I had a sunny start and as long since any lengthy sunshine.

much as hillybilly reports, little sign of any sun, even a few spots of rain this morning.

yet another cloud Sc morning, the cloud must have arrive around 2300 as that is when the temperature started to climb from the low of 10.1C at that time, no wind. A disappointing last 3 days here for cloud amounts.

so how far, where are you to the weather station at Dawley?

Conor I really think Telford must be the cloudiest place in the UK according to your daily complaints about how little sun you get. May I ask what is the nearest official site that records sunshine? odd- as I tried to reply it refused me that hence my post on its own, now I see his post is missing? Shawbury is some 18 miles by road, must have a look at the topography to see if Telford really is that much different in topography, weather etc,from what Shawbury report. Telford is on higher ground than Shawbury, hence the number of times Shawbury records lower overnight temperatures than surrounding areas. Its elevation may also create more cloud but it seems a bit odd that Telford is reported by Conor as so cloudy when the report from Shawbury, in pretty much any wind direcction does not support this view! Not sure how far this web site is from Conor=Dawley, Telford? http://www.dawleyweather.co.uk/

Cloudy start then overcast with fog for a short time, about 6-700m but down to 200m at the airport, a brief spell of sunshine with only half cover cloud but now complete cover of lowish Cu and Sc above it, a low of 10.5C before the cloud came in, accordng to the Davis temperature chart around 0030.

your post is very true phil, I never take any set of charts from one source without looking at how they relate to other outputs, although I rarely make any comment about any other set of data. The anomaly part is just one part of the information with the predicted contour pattern being at least as important as what any anomaly shows especially if it is lower than 60dm. Be that + or -. The main feature in the 8-14 set of charts over the past week is how the trough, to the west or initially SW of the UK, has been smoothed out with a more general flow from a more westerly point at 500mb being predicted. Apart from the Tropical Storm possibly upsetting the apple cart that would seem to be the most likely upper air pattern in the current 8-14 day time frame I think.

The 8-14 rarely does anything more than smooth out the 6-10 pattern and anomalies be they + or -. Only once in perhaps 20 issues maybe even more, does it keep the same intensities as the 6-10 or even rarer go for a definite change in pattern, so nothing unusual in what the above charts suggest.

IF that run turns out as predicted then the current Tropical Storm is the main feature behind the marked change at the end on those charts frosty shows current position and predicted track for the next few days see link below http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Neither of the 2 main models at that stage agree, EC below at 192h shows no major low http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html whilst GFS at the same time does http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html so an awful long time to go before we can see just what effect, if any, the latest tropical storm may have on the UK. As always NO model deals well with these features so best wait until T+xx is down to no more than 120-144 hours I would suggest. But remember how the last one more or less ended the heat of summer! Summer being 1 June-31 August in meteorological terms before some start to argue about the last week or so.

Overcast, no wind, a low of 8.8C prior to the Sc sheet arriving in the early hours.

another lovely day, IF only springs to mid=if would last into November, albeit with a slow fall in temperature and a day here and there with rain to keep the garden happy!

Clear at the moment but thick fog not far from here, mainly sunny with some patchy St and Sc floating around, a low of 9.5C

no problem mate, I agree and as PM has asked for gawds sake stop playing point scoring some of you, learn to live and let live!

A foggy start with the sun visible through low St most of the time, no wind and a low of 9.0C