johnholmes

What a lovely end to meteorological summer, a light breeze, plenty of warm sunshine with a high of 23.5C the highest since 9 August.

mon apologies-I had 'forgotten' your good self!

From local input I think the higher areas within the city boundary, up to 1200ft asl, got about 60cm. The heaviest band of persistent snow 30Nov-1Dec was actually just south of Sheffield. Have a word with TM for his depth, I think 60+cm, closer to Matlock than Sheffield, and even 35cm here, the heaviest in any data sets for this area.

I have not seen many suggestions other than that mushy, so why highlight this? You are correct in that the 500mb anomaly charts, and both the predicted contour values/directions etc, along with a highish anomaly for heights within a similar area, do you suggest that a surface high is most likely to the W/NW of the UK. As to what temperatures may be experienced then a close look at the visual sat piccs, the skew-t relevant diagrams for the part of the country any of us live in and dropping the predicted 925mb wind direction/speed for about 12 h ahead should help see how close the synoptic model is likely to be. No point in looking for that detail until much closer than the 6-10 day overall pattern suggestion from the 500mb charts.

Currently with what seen since back I would say anomaly charts are not totally consistent as to how much ridging and ec has once shown a marked trough to sw of uk but other show no more than a weakness in the upper flow ec-gfs http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Sun 31aug Ec-gfs Today and ec has mostly got rid of the cut off low, only a suggestion of a minor trough beneath the ridge/+ve heights(actual high shown over uk Gfs is quite similar to its last issue and has a suggestion of a ‘weakness’ beneath the marked upper dige/+ve heights NOAA Noaa 6-10 = not sure, it is something of a change from the last issue, ridging/+ve area and position but will take closer look in morning. More pronounced +ve heights in similar area and ridge is back that it showed previously http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Cloudless with hardly any breeze with a low of 11.0C

Yes the EC anomaly chart had a cut off further east on its issue 00z Friday, this morning, see link below, is not a million miles from the chart mushy shows. Even NOAA 6-10 last evening gave a very slight 'nod' to the idea of a trough SW of the UK for the 6-10 day range. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

dry after some rain in the early hours, the sun shining through variable upper layers at the moment,with a very light W'ly breeze; a low of 12.8C

Been away for several days with an occasional peek at synoptic and anomaly charts. Certainly the anomaly types have changed in that time. Now much more towards a more settled set up, but not having got the whole set over the past 6-7 days I am not sure if this 'settled' upper pattern I've quoted is a short lived idea or longer term. I need to see 2-3 days of them to make any prediction but it is looking reasonably hopeful, for most areas, I would have thought, once this weekend is out of the way?

you get sadder and sadder but hey ho it takes all sorts. Live and let live, unless neighbours are causing a genuine nuisance.

Dry with a breeze from the SW and a low of 12.2C, about 7/8 Sc

I presume I did part 2! Sorry cannot search now as busy packing and away at 4am in the morning so I will take a look in my files when I get back in a week-sorry John

they certainly do require a lot of time spent before being able to use them even to get the idea of the upper air pattern, and the surface is even more difficult. Perhaps too much is made of the word 'anomaly'. This refers to the heights of the 500mb contours, how much they are expected to differ from the long term heights in that area of the chart.Shown as dashed lines on NOAA, blue for -ve and red for +ve. More easy to use are the 'actual' contour lines. These will indicate, with all the usual provisos I constantly go on about, what upper air pattern is expected 6, 10 or 14 days ahead. A simple way is to trace back the contour over, say central UK, to where it starts from. One starting out well south will exhibit tropical characteristics, be that a sea track or a land track sub definition. Likewise one from polar regions will be cold or very cold when it starts its journey. Obviously both source regions weather type will be much modified by the time they reach the UK area but the source and track will give a reasonable idea, along with what height is shown on the chart, of temperature levels, and an idea of weather type. The detail of surface weather can only really be given from the synoptic outputs, hence my suggestion of trying to 'link' if that is the correct explanation,the anomaly countour charts with the model outputs showing the surface pattern along with the temperature levels expected at 500mb. The temperatures are linked to what the heights are shown as on a 500mb chart. Google for more information on how this link works - this link is also a first class one for anyone wanting to read more about meteorology in a relatively simple way, but expect both mathematics and physics to appear! http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/

I don't pretend it is easy to do comparisons, it is not. One is not looking at like and like but variations of this. For instance using NOAA 6-10 to see how GFS, UK Met and ECMWF are comparing is not really like with like. Not a method for anyone wanting a quick look and any tendency to 'shoot from the hip' type of assessment. It does take quite a bit of time but it is worth it in my view. One or two posters do use this method now and then but I have no idea what they make of my idea; be nice to have any feed back, good or bad. Objective assessment may be a bit boring for some but others may prefer it in the winter season. Perhaps the technical thread might be a place to chat about these ideas as in winter it is far more quiet in there than the model thread. No disrespect to any of you in here. Come winter I will probably spend more time in there with just linking ideas I have in here to a post in the other thread. Not got time now and away then away until next weekend but when I get back I will make an attempt to illustrate my ideas, you never know it might work!

I would suggest that using the anomaly charts can be helpful when looking at the synoptic models as well. If the anomaly charts are consistent over several days both with one another and themselves then the upper pattern is very unlikely to be markedly different from what they suggest. Remember though that trying to predict one day on them is pretty difficult as they are 'means' of the upper pattern over a 5 day period. So a temporary ridge in the upper pattern and the surface may well not be too obvious unless you are keeping a very close eye on how they are changing and also have lots of experience and practice at doing this. So if the upper pattern looks pretty clear over a 5-6 day period then look at the synoptic models to see which is closest with its upper air pattern to them. That is then the model most likely to verify for the surface. It does not always work but with practice it can help pick out the most likely pattern if different synoptic models are showing different outcomes. Also it helps to be able to decide, with GFS for example, if any one run is more or less likely than other runs showing.

dry but cloudy with a SW breeze, a low of 9.7C before the cloud came in

Sunny with just 1 small patch of thin Sc, no wind and a low of 7.6C, the lowest since 6 June this year

dry with a light W'ly breeze, 3/4 cover of highish Sc and patches of other cloud above, a low of 12.6C

it would be a good idea if some folk actually looked at the figures for their area rather than prattling on about how bad August is. Of course it may get worse, or it may improve. But to say this month is the worst since whenever on the 17th of the month is a bit daft it seems to me. as to lashing it down with rain, the cumulative radar would hardly agree with that, it has rained in a good many places but not quite as bad as some imply? http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=hiradar;sess=d2be6136540de67bb519ddf2838a0dec

they are

you could be right in that they do look different but then probably taken from different data sets perhaps. I have never really used those you show K so I really cannot comment on them.

The anomaly charts are quite interesting at the moment. Not sure what to make of them really. All 3 are showing changes to their long held view of a marked trough near the UK with an upper ridge to the west. Have a look yoursleves, NOAA first then this morning from EC and GFS. I need a couple of more outputs from each of them to be sure, maybe not even then, as to what they are indicating. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Remember this change only occurred in the past 24 hours or so, thus their indications out to about the 3rd week or so of August are not affected, or that is how I would read them. below is the one previous to the last issue

variable Cu Sc amounts from 2/8 to 7/8 and a bit of a breeze has developed over the past hour from the west, a low of 12.3C

Something I have never experienced in this country in spite of living/working at various locations, including the far north and western coastal areas. The only instance for me was way way back, decades ago, in Cyprus-Nicosia airport in February 1959. The snow line came down briefly to about 500ft and for a few days hovered about the 1000ft mark. Not unknown apparently but not often.

' tha' nowt bur a lad, it gets worse believe me, hence my heating is actually on as I type, set at 21C winter and summer. The past 2 days are the first time it has come on for a good many weeks.