johnholmes

I understand it's only one tool in a big tool box used but we all know how much a blocked pattern can help us ?! so very very true If it was so good at predicting the winter months why is it not used by the major computer centres, or maybe they do? What did October last year show, did it predict the mobile westerly which is what the UK and parts of western Europe suffered while parts of NE America had deep cold. It would be interesting to see just what it showed 12 months ago or rather what it showed 31 october with all the October data in.

dry, mostly clear sky, isolated patches Sc and Ci/Contrails, slight breeze from the SSW, and a low of 10.6C quite early on, currently 13.1C

try the Wx Onlime site for air or ground min values? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmin&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1412283600&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=1 4 with an air frost and 17 with frost recorded at 5cm above the ground, which I guess is probably the grass min values or their equivalent?

as you say-interesting to muse over

interesting that two totally different models are relatively alike for amounts and areas predicted to be affected.

and another interesting statistic, one I am sure winter cold lovers will relish. I wonder just why this data suggests cold winters, something to do with blocking, but what has caused that? This might give a better clue to the meteorology/climatology behind what BFTV has shown. Also interesting if you look at the current long range computer output from Met, see link below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob that data, fairly consistent over the past 3 issues I think, does not support the BFTV suggestion. But why, surely Met would have what appears to be anomalous warmth and 500mb height anomalies that support this idea? All quite intriguing.

Dry and fairly cloudy (CuSc), very little breeze with the low at 8.9C

re the anomalies, all 3 show similar ideas in the 6-10 day time scale and NOAA has done this for at least 3 days now. A similar consistency also in its 8-14 day outlook. Some thought provoking posts above this as well. I do enjoy reading this type of post so much better than the hype we are almost certain to get come the winter frenzy.

an interesting post there

I find it absolutely fascinating when these kind of numbers come up, we will know how high the correlation is 1 March 2015. Fun to wonder about it and perhaps look at similar types of 'patterns'. Can you post the years both when the correlation occurred please T and when it did not. I am sure more than just me would be very interested to look at them?

my, this is a rare event, me with less rainfall in a month than TM! 13.8mm with 7.8 of that falling on the 6th, much of it after 1700 BST.

The anomaly charts, well the 3 I use, all point to the same idea byt this weekend and then out to day 15 or so, unsettled with an upper low over or close by the UK and the air sourced through much of that time (this is at 500mb) from the Gt Lakes area, so a big difference being felt by all. This especially so regarding temperature levels for the southern half of the UK compared to the past several weeks. How much rain is as always far more uncertain and has to be left to no further out that 72h for a general idea and closer to 24h for a more accurate idea on location and amounts. links to the 3 anomaly charts EC-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php for interest how close the various models are over the northern hemisphere at 500mb at day 6 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html for all the stick it gets at times, UKMO in the lead recently even beating EC.

sorry SR, work done on this idea, with full statistical checks has never revealed any workable link. As your data chart shows the scatter is wide and for each year that 'proves' it there is another one, as you have written of that 'disproves' it. I remember decades ago doing research in the middle of night duties on data over 100 years and it never showed any strong correlation. Nor did the Met O agree with any of the work I showed. A senior bloke at the old main office in Dunstable in those days said the statistical analysis showed there was no correlation. Fun doing it though as I am sure you found.

partly cloudy, dry after rain late evening, no wind and the 'low' was 14.3C

A cloudy misty start but now almost cloudless and no wind, a low of 12.3C

A cloudy start, no wind, the low is 12.7C

cloudy with no wind and a low of 10.6C before the cloud came in around 0200 looking at the Davis temperature graph

Certainly a cold start here, the lowest since 3 May at 5.7C and 4C showing at the airport, no wind, no cloud

this is what the Met O actually printed both today and you can look back at earlier outputs on the link Stu regularly posts https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/page-89#entry3045865

Partly cloudy with 4/8 Cu Sc, with sunny spells and a W'ly breeze, very warm overnight, the lowest was 15.3C, higher than many nights in mid summer.

yes but the NOAA anomaly of heights is 90 or less DM, only the EC version takes it higher than this away from the UK. How much that will distort the otherwise westerly flow is very difficult to decide, if any in my view. If we look at the contours predicted only, then there is little in the way of ridging other than to the east of the UK. So how effective will the ridging/+ve heights in this area be in keeping the fairly settled weather for the UK. Looking at the trend over the last few days and, as a result of the main wavelength, measured trough to trough, not being quite long enough, the charts over the last 3 days have shown a very slow movement east of this ridge. Will this continue? The 8-14 as it often does smooths out things even more so it is not that clear. But probably the form horse is for it to become slowly less settled away from the already not really settled far NW of the UK. For simplicity then not that different from the current Met O 6-30 day forecast.

I am not sure that the professionals,like cpc, quoted above, have ever gone for anything more than a relatively weak El-Nino? You can check this by looking at the previous issues, say over the last 8 or 9 motnhs.

this is the latest from the ENSO professional at NOAA Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome). full link http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

I wish I could find the photograph I took 30 years ago from the flight deck on a London-Aberdeen flight, quite rough as we descended through them from 12000-4500ft, and from a distance they looked like saucers stacked on top of one another.

dry but quite bright but a lot of cloud, a real mix, Sc, Ac Ci, a low of 9.2C