johnholmes

The 500mb anomaly charts all favour a more westerly and somewhat less mild pattern, fairly unsettled much of the time with just quite brief interludes with surface high pressure the dominant feature. links NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Can we get one thing clear about synoptic models, be it GFS, ECMWF or UK. There is NO bias. Each model starts with the T+00 data and runs according to the programmes using the laws of thermodynamics out to the end. There is no bias fed into any run at synoptic level. link to Met O info re their computer models. I stand corrected if anyone does find text that shows their model has any bias in the sense of the post from rjbw http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model

Mainly sunny with patchy Ci and the odd patch of Sc, a low of 5.6C

I suspect that what you pay for their radar images is quite a lot by your/our Net Wx standards but is 'peanuts' to them Paul.

One wonders how the OPI would have been in autumn 1946 or 1962 to name just two. Anyone able to provide that data please?

ah well, breaking my promise This old chestnut about costs and not allowing everyone access to everything is not too dissimilar to the comments about the ODI. Folk will not carefully read how/what the ODI is about and what the team are trying to do. Likewise most on here are only interested in what they can get for their own back yard. Very few on here, perhaps 6 maybe 7 have the faintest idea what the Met O is allowed to do and not allowed to do. Most don't care, no problem there. But is it not a touch unfair to criticise when the facts have not been discovered by most of those chucking stones. Here I must admit I have not yet read the Met O press release about just what this latest Cray will do, grid lengths, number of layers, etc etc but I doubt many on here have really read it carefully. Do we want progress or not? If we do then trying to improve forecast not just for joe bloggs will it or not in my back garden, but for aviation, energy industry, commercial requirements of what to stock, how much and how long for, none of these users can get improvements without these huge sums. Read the Annual Reports of not just the Met office but cicil aviation and how much money they can save/lose if a 30-35000ft wind is +/- 10knots, or a predicted temperature 72-120 hours ahead is outside +/- 2C for Asda/Tesco, Gas/electric, the sums are enormous. The Met O does two things at once, provides the MOD data for anywhere in the world which is largely the main omputer costs and then the forecasts for all the commercial systems, for which it must show a profit, then lastly, the media, for which it is paid, perhaps rightly, peanuts, be that data for Net Wx or the BBC. When they do something wrong count on me to make a noise but it is fun for many to throw bricks with little knowledge of what is the reason for some of the very expensive decisions that governments of various political persuasions make about the Met Office. Having broken my promise I will shut up.

I'm saying nowt!

Having read through the last few pages including the Google translation of the post from the team investigating the possible links then maybe some should pay attention to this towards the end of their comments? It does not matter, because one thing must be clear: we're not ready to make predictions themselves, which is intended to predict something that has established a trust, otherwise it comes to guessing neither more nor less than to the alleged snowfall in Rome feared by some predictions agostani. What we will do is start a job verification and careful effort to correct any errors since the beginning of Decembe They themselves are NOT making predictions, many on here are, and that is the problem. They need to do a lot more work as they suggest before they will feel confident in their theory. Okay it looks that the OPI has a link with cold and quite snowy winters in my area but there are exceptions. Until they finish their research, even if what some have shown possible for this upcoming winter, turn out correct, the theory has yet to be scientifically proven and peer tested. It looks great but it needs time, something a number on here seem short of but to say 'back to square one' is unkind to say the least.

dry with variable cloud and sunny spells, a low of 12.8C

cloudy, dry and a low of 12.4C, not far from the August overnight value!

thanks as always Roger, I don't think anyone could really challenge those headlines. You can also be more accurate in your short term ideas than many over this side of the water. What I disagree with is the detail, I honestly feel it is impossible, no matter what system is used, to predict in any detail of even approximate dates for deep cold or very mild and changeable. Maybe a trend early, late or mid term in a 3 month cycle but I am at a loss to see how such detail can be given. I do have to admit that your system, in spite of trying hard to understand it some years ago when you went into a lot of detail to try and help those of us with an open mind, is still a bit of a blank in most aspects. Still hats off Roger you are known for taking time and a huge amount of effort to produce your forecasts, again thank you.

fairly consistently NOAA anomaly outputs have shown a +ve area of heights of SW Alaska, not coincident with any ridge. However this may be sufficient to help prolong the fairly mobile set up looking likely on these same anomaly charts for the Atlantic and into the UK. This does NOT of course mean the winter will be mild , wet and windy. But have a look back at October last year for the ridging and +ve heights around through much of October. It may well be simple coincidence.

see my other comments about this-I suppose there are libel laws!

seems a touch improbable unless they totally ignore their own seasonal models U would be amazed if he has

dry, cloudy the low so far another double figure value at 10.4C

why oh why use more than 1 output at such long time scales-it really is close to a waste of time and effort using multiple output times at time scales beyond even maybe 144h and certainly 240h. Simply look at how often EC shows differences in its 2 runs and how often at 240h is GFS is even similar on its 4 runs let alone identical. Close in by all means use all the data. I suggested at the beginning of this thread that using a forecast to predict what is another forecast to then predict something else was just going a bit too far.

ta-my mistake

stats can be made to show whatever you want to be fair. The figure Paul shows are the Net Wx version of the CET. That is fine but some parts may well diverge from that. For instance, here, not that far outside the area, and my figure, to the 20th stands at + 1.4C

I like simplicity whenever possible So to see what happened I took all the OPI indicators that showed a -ve value of 1.5 or more and then put the CET figures for Dec/Jan?feb with the coldest ones. This is what it showed OPI data for possible ‘cold’ winter months Year: OPI 1976: -1.75 1977: -0.95 1978: -1.8 1979: -0.5 1980: -0.05 1981: -0.4 1982: -1.1 1983: -0.3 1984: -1.8 1985: -1.9 1986: -1.3 1987: -0.45 1988: 1.45 1989: 0.25 1990: 0.55 1991: 1.1 1992: 1.75 1993: -0.15 1994: 0.7 1995: -0.65 1996: -0.75 1997: -0.75 1998: 0.1 1999: -0.2 2000: -0.75 2001: 0.45 2002: -0.9 2003: -0.7 2004: 0.3 2005: -0.7 2006: 0.85 2007: 0.75 2008: 0.25 2009: -3.15 2010: -0.85 2011: 0.65 2012: -1.65 2013: 1.6 The following winters after an OPI of -1.65 or lower 1976/7=2.0/2.8/5.2 19789=3.9/-0.4/1.2 1984/5=5.2/0.8/2.1 1985/6=6.3/3.5/-1.1 2009/10=3.1/1.4/2.8 2012/13=4.8/3.5/3.2 CET values for Dec/Jan/Feb 1971-2000=5.1/4.2/4.2 Winters not show up by OPI 1981/2=0.3/2.6/4.8 OPI=-0.4 1982/3=4.4/6.7/1.7 -1.1 1990/91=4.3/3.3/1.5 0.55 1995/6=2.3/4.3/2.5 -0.65 1996/7=2.9/2.5/6.7 -0.75 2010/11=only Dec Now you make of those figures what you want. How much statistical correlation there is between the lowest OPI values and the winter months I do not know. My statistical recall from my inter Bsc days has gone like snow on a hot oven! to add, someone might like to take each October CET preceding each CET 'cold' winter and see if that correlates with them. To be honest until you do a full statistical test on any work then it is possible that any apparent correlation is not what it seems. Lots of fun though especially as the cold lovers so obviously will almost die for a link to be true. Some way off that being proved I am afraid. from Steve Lol what a waste if time not sure which of us he refers to but a touch unkind Steve. Can you prove that your theory, which is what it is, is any sounder or more scientifically based than anyone else so far? To me, until this is peer reviewed it is interesting and allows us all a bit of fun?

good to get an update on what it actually means. We can each of course suggest what might be the most constructive way to do it. As now part actual part 10 day prediction, or just on the average of the actual data through the month. One thing that might help the reduction in swings I read about on here is to use just one GFS run. Over the years that is probably a toss up between the 00 and 12z. But choose one. Comparing the single output each day for D+10 days or so has almost always proved less volatile when using just one run each day. My views only and no doubt a number will disagree. But the daily up/down comments if you read the thread carefully do reinforce what most of us know if some don't accept fully, one run per day=less volatility in outputs and less of the same on the thread discussing it. To me using actual data and allowing that to accumulate to an average would be the best way. It would also allow anyone to see how the OPI ACTUAL index changes over the 31 days. There may be some relevance in how that changes to the outcome for the winter assuming that once peer reviewed it can be used as another predictor. Very helpful to have that post though so we now all know what is going on. Good luck with the work Guido, only by work such as this does any form of science move forward.

The first real snows of the winter for much of the Alps today, could stick around at height for a few days? web cams Jungfrau area Wengen village http://www.bellevue-wengen.ch/webcam-wengen.html top of the Lauberhorn run http://panocam.panomax.at/lauberhorn railway restaurant below the Lauberhorn start http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e

dry, partly cloudy, less wind and a low of 7.4C

the pdf with various things about using 500mb anomaly charts along with examples 500mb various posts in order of posting-21 oct 2014.doc

think its sorted thanks folks-old age is a sad affliction-buggers up the memory something rotten herewith 500mb various posts in order of posting-21 oct 2014.doc it has 16 pages so may take a while to download for some-free choice to look or ignore, will also post it into the technical thread although the contents are not at all technical

500mb charts, how to use them and a few examples. It is a very large pdf something like 14 pages long with charts to illustrate, hence as a pdf for folk to decide if they wish to download or not, copied into the technical area as it may be easier to find in the winter season. bugger! forgotten how to create a pdf file so can someone help the poor old fool please?