johnholmes

Dry with a white frost and mainly clear skies; an air frost lowest so far is -2.7 C; the lowest since 19 January!

A dry mostly cloudy start to Sunday, no sign of any ground frost in spite of a current low of 0.4 C

Cloudy and dry just now after 0.2 mm around 0100, a low of 1.9 C now up to 3.1 C

Dry with a lovely orange sunrise through Ci, white ground frost, current low is 1.1 C

Cloudy, dry after 0.4 mm of rain overnight; milder than for a about 9 nights with the current low on 8.7 C

Dry and mostly cloudy; current low is 3.7 C

Dry; lovely orange sunrise through high cloud, white ground frost with a low of 0.1 C, now on 1.3 C

Dry with variable cloud; Davis shows 0.2 mm at 0200, (need check radar for that), patchy white ground frost with a low of 2.3 C, on 5.2 C now yep could be true, a line of showers moving in from the coast

As you can see from the ECMWF, a 'cold' plunge is predicted on its latest, indeed its last couple of outputs, but no deep cold. It shows below zero C for the 850 mb temperature for the whole country but the -5 C only briefly clips the far north. With an upper low over the UK one would imagine that it could be quite showery so, perhaps, at last the Scottish ski resorts may do well?

I'd never heard of it but it looks gorgeous, tks for the lovely photos

Dry with mostly clear skies and a white air frost; current low is -1.7 C; first since 8 Feb

Dry with a white frost in parts, variable cloud and a low of 1.1 C

Cloudy and wet, 4.4 mm so far since midnight, the current low is 6.7 C

Overcast with light rain; 1.4 mm since midnight, gust to 23 mph; lowest temperature 4.9 C before cloud and rain arrived, now up to 8.3 C

Dry and mostly cloudy; current low is 6.7 C

Dry and mostly cloudy; current low is 8.3 C, my average daily max for February!

Well a long time since I created a post using the usual models ( 2 Feb the last times) In brief for approximately 23-27 February all 3 are on the same page. They show a marked upper trough over the UK edging slowly east and warming out slightly. On the surface ECMWF shows a deep low just south of Iceland on day 1 (27Feb), NOAA shows a marked 500 mb trough over the UK from a flabby sort of main trough NE Canada/NW Greenland by 26 February. UK Met 20-22 February shows a similar pattern with a marked upper trough and surface feature over the UK. NOAA has contours on its 6-10 over the UK from about 520-534 DM north to south over the UK. So cold by the average expected for late February. ECMWF shows a quite strong northerly pulling in the cold air, surface and at 500 mb. UK Met by its last date (22nd) shows a strong NNW’ly over the near Atlantic with a rather flabby low over the Northern Isles and a high west of the NNW’ly flow. Further ahead ECMWF indicates an upper ridge moving east into the SW along with a surface high a bit west of 20W at the same latitude as northern Spain. NOAA with its 8-14 day chart has a +ve height anomaly of 150 DM or so in about the same place as the ECMWF surface high. These charts would suggest that by the 27-28 February the cold air supply is being cut off. Probably by next Saturday ‘deepish’ cold air will be covering most parts, say -4 to -5 C at 850mb. I would think these conditions lasting until about month end? Just my take on the outlook! I'll try and post the charts I used to arrive at this Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5038707

Well a long time since I created a post using the usual models ( 2 Feb the last times) In brief for approximately 23-27 February all 3 are on the same page. They show a marked upper trough over the UK edging slowly east and warming out slightly. On the surface ECMWF shows a deep low just south of Iceland on day 1 (27Feb), NOAA shows a marked 500 mb trough over the UK from a flabby sort of main trough NE Canada/NW Greenland by 26 February. UK Met 20-22 February shows a similar pattern with a marked upper trough and surface feature over the UK. NOAA has contours on its 6-10 over the UK from about 520-534 DM north to south over the UK. So cold by the average expected for late February. ECMWF shows a quite strong northerly pulling in the cold air, surface and at 500 mb. UK Met by its last date (22nd) shows a strong NNW’ly over the near Atlantic with a rather flabby low over the Northern Isles and a high west of the NNW’ly flow. Further ahead ECMWF indicates an upper ridge moving east into the SW along with a surface high a bit west of 20W at the same latitude as northern Spain. NOAA with its 8-14 day chart has a +ve height anomaly of 150 DM or so in about the same place as the ECMWF surface high. These charts would suggest that by the 27-28 February the cold air supply is being cut off. Probably by next Saturday ‘deepish’ cold air will be covering most parts, say -4 to -5 C at 850mb. I would think these conditions lasting until about month end? Just my take on the outlook! I'll try and post the charts I used to arrive at this Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Dry and mostly cloudy, a low of 7.1 C

Cloudy, dry after slight rain (1.0mm) overnight, very mild on 12.2 C now, current low is 11.8 C

Dry and mostly cloudy after slight rain overnight; just 1.0 mm; lowest temperature was 7.5 C, now up to 10.2 CDry with variable mainly small amounts of cloud, a low of 2.1 C now on 3.1 C

Daniel* Not sure how you get that? Can you explain your comment please? thank you

Sunday starts overcast with rain at times, 3.4 mm since midnight and rain last evening; the lowest temperature so far is 6.9 C

Dry with a lot cloud, a low of 4.1 C

28.2 mm here