johnholmes

morning Clouded up here now but was clear at about 5am when the min temp was 2.5C with a touch of ground frost.

g'Morning clouded up now with a nw'ly breeze and temp of 7.6C after a min in the early hours of 3.3C.

well, well, if I can do that then anyone can!

Hi again Not sure if this will work. If it does, out of the back bedroom window looking almost due west.

hi again Temp now down to 8.5C, dewpoint 6.5C, after a max temp of 10.6C. The clearance is showing to the west with the beginnings of asuper sunset.

Hi Sod's law isn't it? Play golf this morning, drizzle with bursts of rain. Finish golf, stops raining, even some sign of brightness to the west. That fits in with the last radar picture and TWS reports in Lancaster. Temp now falling and so is dewpoint.

morning dull and rather damp but not actually raining at the moment. Temp is9.2C.

hi So much for the TV 8.50 forecast! I've had 0.4mm of 'mostly dry' and a thoroughly miserable morning's weather. At least it looks as if it might be clearing up. The Met Office radar has got small echoes in this area.

morning Dry and mostly cloudy here; temperature at 11.1C

morning Hi PT, looking at your report bleary eyed, at first I thought you had given a temp of MS 7.5C!!, obviously its PS7.5C. Here, dull and boring again, temp is already 12C, just about dry at the moment but I've had 0.2mm overnight according to the raingauage.

Hi A fairly dull day, with just a few brief breaks in the cloud this morning. The first 6 days of November are giving a Mean Temp of 10.5C, 4.0C above the long term average, so far! How about anyone else?

morning dry now but cloudy after some rain earlier on this morning. Temp not dropped below 10.1C, now at 11.1C

hi lots of high cloud, calm, with temp at 7.8C, lowest only 6.6C

hello A beautiful morning here, not a cloud in the sky and no wind. Temps dipped to just below 8C after rain in the early hours.

Hi I'm embarrassed by all those who obviously were only tiny tots when I had been working for years, so best I not reveal my best winters!

hello A nice afternoon after a dull and damp start to the day. Temp topped out at 12.9C, currently 12.4C, and no wind

morning Dull with rain earlier and more on the way looking at the radar picture. Temp of 10C. pretty boring really.

Hi October here was much wetter than normal; 65.9mm compared to 45.4mm(long term average). The mean temperature was only just above average at 10.8C(10.5C) Absolute max was 17.6C on 5th with the coldest day 9.2C on 15th. The coldest night was 2.4C on 19th with just 2 ground frosts and no air frost. This is 12th consecutive month with temps above normal.

morning Hardly the correct description for the weather! Still raining with a light S'ly wind and a temperature of 10.6C

Hi I am away this next weekend so will start the next check using the 12Z on Sunday 31st October for T+168 hours(7 days), which takes us to the 7th November. Currently GFS shows a large High covering the whole UK with central pressure >1030, centre just off SW Scotland.

morning Min last night was 2.6C with a touch of ground frost and some fog for a short time. Now overcast with a slight SSE'ly breeze developing.

Hello Well here goes with the first issue: The forecast run at 12Z(T+168) gave a dumbell type low, with the main centre off NW Ireland below 990mb, this extended into a low in the North Of the North Sea of 995mb with a slackish WSW flow over England and Wales, but stronger over Eire. By the 12Z run Tuesday 19 October the low centre was <995Mb and approximately 500 miles SW of Eire with a slack SW'ly over much of the UK. The 12Z run On the next day showed a similar scenario. By 12Z on Thursday 21 October it had deppened the low to <985mb, slightly further NE and with a secondary centre West of Ireland. A light to moderate W to SW flow covered most of the UK. I was away from mid Friday until mid Monday so only saw the following: 00Z on Friday was totally different, it had the low off Eastern Scotland, centre<990mb with a ridge over SW Eire and a strong NW'ly flow over most of the UK. By Monday 12Z it had reverted back to a similar story to that of 12Z on Thursday. Now to the actual today 12Z Tuesday 26 October 2004:- Low 982 at 46.5N and 20W with a slack SW'ly flow over much of the UK, with a secondary low of 995 with associated fronts over SW Eire. Now, its easy to be critical, but I would love to be as accurate as that out at T+168. In my experience GFS does handle these patterns quite well. Its the blocking situations it has trouble with more than about T+84? To the 'mods'; is there any way these subjective treatments can be stored for any of us to be able to look at them at a later date please?

Hi again Thanks for that Paul I'll try and issue this first one early this evening. The next one I will try and follow will be the T+168 prog for 12Z today.

Hi everyone For some time I have thought that a realistic assessment of GFS 12Z surface /500mb products would be a good idea.Say to start from 7 days and run down each 24 hour output at 12Z From it we could all learn about how accurate, or otherwise, these products are in different weather scenarios. To start I have been checking the 12Z runs from 18th October for today, Tuesday 26th October to see how each run compared to the previous one and, ultimately, how these compared to the actual for 12Z 26th October. Unfortunately I forgot to store the http code for each run so you will have to bear with my assessment but in future, if it seems those of you out there are interested I would include those as well as my assesment. Perhaps, before I put the first one on the Forum you could give me some feedback? this being especially true of the 'Mods' I'll put my ideas of this run out early this evening unless there is a deafening silence! regards

morning Quite bright and dry at the moment with lightish SW winds. Clouds thickening and increasing from the SW. Temp 10.2C with a min only down to 8.2C jh