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Barb

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Everything posted by Barb

  1. Barb
    Personally I'm backing the WMC:
  2. Barb
    Yes TEITS the latest faxes bear little resemblance to the UKMO output or GFS op. Much better for the south. As you can see OP is a big mild outlier.
  3. Barb
    Looking through ensembles the 18z is a pretty big mild outlier for the southern half of Britain, if not the very mildest run. A lot of runs still bring the snow over the South, a few barely bring precip to the S coast. So who knows.
  4. Barb
    Haha, the 18z control is the complete opposite to the 19z operational. The precip barely makes it across the channel on this while op has it going into Scotland. Cold is much further south too. Safe to see nobody has a clue what's going to happen. Probably won't know until Sunday at the earliest.
  5. Barb
    It's understandable you up North are happy with the 18z but obviously in my location its a bit dissapointing. Easterlies and North easterlies usually produce little in my location while channel lows often deliver, its our best chance of snow. We had lots of blocking and so on over the past 10 days yet most of Wales had bugger all snow.
  6. Barb
    And me, I don't personally care about a greenland high at 240. Channel lows are what delivers the goods for us and it would be dissapointing for a potential major blizzard to vanish at relatively short range. Plenty of time to change I suppose.
  7. Barb
    18z is totally different to previous GFS runs. Everything is like 250 miles further North, pretty big jump in 6 hours. Will be interesting to see ensembles.
  8. Barb
    Suprised nobody mentioned GEM 12z, tis the pick of the bunch for me. Highly regarded model too I believe these days.
  9. Barb
    Of course, nice to look at though and going in the right direction. Apart from the UKMO that wants to spoil the ramping.
  10. Barb
    GEM at +120.
  11. Barb
    Wow, from a IMBY view the latest GEM is stunning. Pretty much perfect, just look at that temperature gradient. Stunning also for Midlands.
  12. Barb
    Not bad.
  13. Barb
    Phew, ECM is still good. UKMO looking very isolated now.
  14. Barb
    The GFS control is a corker... For south.
  15. Barb
    Maybe put the razor blades away for now, the GFS ensembles look better. In fact they seem better than the 06z in keepin the cold and snow south.
  16. Barb
    Yes UKMO is a horror show. Dear me.
  17. Barb
    Is not much at this range, it can change by that much on the day of the event. The snow line will keep moving N and S each run so no point focusing on one individual run. Plenty of uncertainty about this event.
  18. Barb
    It's all a bit further North on this run. It's chopping by 50-100 miles every run which is to be expected, overall though I think the main risk areas are still Wales/Midlands.
  19. Barb
    Hard not to get carried away isn't it. Maybe a good idea to expect the worst and hope for the best.
  20. Barb
    It's uncertain at the moment. But my guess is South of the M4 will get rain initially turning to heavy snow later on, even for the South East. North of the M4 will get snow from the off and especially over higher ground. That's my wager.
  21. Barb
    Thanks. I remember 1 (maybe 2) good snowfalls Feb 09 from a low in the channel though I don't remember the exact set up. Also 2 major falls also in Feb 07 as you say. Met Office have all of Wales under an advanced warning. True, though if the models came off there wouldn't be much work or school anyway...
  22. Barb
    Met Office warning - that doesn't look very far North - all of Wales and much of the Midlands. Met Office trending a bit more towards GFS than their own output? Of course a lot of uncertainty. I think that area is about right though...
  23. Barb
    There's still an inch or so of snow on the ground here so it's a white Christmas for me though not by the official designation. Early next week is just oozing potential for something very special for us in Wales. JACKONE, given everything, where do you think the sweet spot in Britain is going to be for the blizzard? Quite a big of disagreement with the MetO having everything much further north than GFS. Is that plausible?? What are you backing?
  24. Barb
    Personally I think the GFS now has it a bit far too south, I think somewhere between GFS and UKMO is most likely, perhaps something like the 00z or ECM. I don't really think its trending south each run, its just chopping and changing as it inevitably will. I still think my earlier punt of Wales/Midlands is the sweet spot. From an IMBY standpoint I sure hope it is lol.
  25. Barb
    06z takes it even further south than the 00z. I think the UKMO are wrong...
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