Barb

50 miles further North or so but as has been said it's been moving South and North 50-100 miles every run. We won't know until the day.

Lol getting a bit carried away there, could see 6 foot drifts though. 1 foot of lying snow is certainly not out of the question in the "sweet spot" and more perhaps for a few on higher ground. Better not get too excited though as it still could go balls up and we'll end up dry/soaking wet. The ECM is looking very nice for us tonight.

Well the GEM is quite stunning for Wales and Midlands, just like the GFS. The cold is further South than GFS in fact, look at these 850's. GEM isn't backing UKMO for sure.

GFS ensembles backing the GFS op out to 3rd Jan.

Why are people putting so much faith in the UKMO? Same thing happened last night (though not as bad) and the Met Office dismissed their own model and put out completely different Fax charts.

The Met Office themselves completely dismissed their own UKMO run yesterday so I wouldn't read too much into what it is showing. The other runs are consistently showing, including Met Office's own FAX charts, a decent set up in at least the medium term if you're looking for cold/snow (unless in SE).

I say valleys because the elevation here will help (also I am 30 miles inland so that'll help too) and Mid Wales because it's further North into the cold. Looks like the sweet spot on this run but you should get snow also. Anyway, pointless discussing in detail one run. In general though in this set up Valleys/Mid Wales/West Midlands are always going to be in the prime firing line... past experience of similar set ups has shown this. I hope we all get a dumping though.

Well the only way from a run like this is down isn't it? Unlikely to come off. Interesting potential though.

A JCB to dig ourselves out from our houses might be a good investment looking at the 06z. 48 hour blizzard for the valleys/Mid Wales. Not to be taken too seriously though.

Be different next run of course.

I say valleys because the elevation here will help and Mid Wales because it's further North into the cold. Looks like the sweet spot on this run but you should get snow also. Anyway, pointless discussing in detail one run. In general though in this set up Valleys/Mid Wales/West Midlands are always going to be in the prime firing line.

Wow... 42 hour blizzard showing on this run for valleys and mid Wales.

A bit further North on this run but there's more precip about so I'll take that thank you very much. Most should be snow from an IMBY perspective. Of course it'll probably come down to the day itself before we know where it's all gonna happen.

All looks a bit further North on this one.

Strap yourselves in because the rollercoaster is about to set off once again I think...

The precipitation looks like being further South but as you said things can change.

July 2001: Mega thunderstorm that went on for hours August 2003: Exceptionally hot January 2004: Very heavy surprise snow giving many inches July 2006: Sutained exceptional heat and dryness January 2007: Storm force wind, strongest ever experienced April 2007: Exceptionally warm, dry and sunny February 2008: 2 huge snow events in 2 days giving nearly a foot of snow December 2008: Exceptional sustained cold July 2008: Endless rain February 2009: 3-4 large snow events, 2 weeks of lying snow November 2009: Endless rain and wind, wettest month ever recorded This current cold snap doesn't even register.

Same for me, gimme my blizzard early next week. It can do what it wants after that.

Is possible but I suppose we don't know the precip amounts til much closer to the event.

Yes I its the green one. GME is the German model, GEM is the Canadian model. GEM is a very good model these days, should be included with ECM, GFS and UKMO.

GFS op is one of the mildest runs in FI.

Me too, if we had a megablizzard giving 2 foot the rest of the winter could be mild bartlett zonality and I wouldn't care.

Should be: Think the question is increasingly turning to "how much".

It's looking promising for us in S. Wales this morn. I think we're in the prime position to do well from this. The models now seem to have a settled on the basic area affected though I expect it'll chop and change by 50 miles or so each run which could make all the difference of course. Precip amounts will be changing all the time too. Probably come to looking out of the window in the end.

Bit too early to to start talking about exact precip amounts, need to figure out where this LP is going first.