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Barb

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Everything posted by Barb

  1. Proper snow here but its not heavy enough and its not cold enough to stick. It could snow until next year and it still wont stick, it may aswell be raining. Completely useless. 6-12 inches LOL.
  2. There's 2 fronts, the warm front which just passed giving us mainly rain/sleet (now stalled and weakening) and the more potent occlusion now moving in from the SW, which should be much more wintry. However I will believe it when I see it. The Met Office do have a flash warning for heavy snow for much of the valleys so hopefully all hope is not yet lost.
  3. Personally I'd prefer a bartlett with tropical south westerlies and heavy rain than this cold damp slushy sleety rubbish.
  4. Latest NOGAPS looks fine: Basically no model remotely agrees with GFS. Even the small ones.
  5. We had a heavy wet snow shower earlier with a temporary dusting up on the mountain. A sign of things to come I hope. I'd take that thank you very much.
  6. But if they didn't think it was going to happen for us they would have removed the warnings or changed the area affected, which they haven't, so they still obviously expect significant snow for all of Wales.
  7. Well I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
  8. Well they say 10-20cm on Tuesday (4-8 inches) and a further 5-10cm (2-4 inches) on Wednesday, so 6-12 inches is the range.
  9. Snow depth they estimate is 15-30cm, or ~6 inches on lower ground and ~12 inches (a foot) for higher areas. However there is still quite a bit of uncertainty so don't start planning hiring a JCB to dig yourself out of the house just yet.
  10. No, they were updated 30 mins or so ago, they are new:
  11. Met Office just released new warnings for ALL of Wales: http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2 Reflecting the latest FAX charts I guess.
  12. Today's latest Fax charts should please you Midlanders (and us Welsh).
  13. Has anyone looked at the Fax charts for 72/84 hours? They look pretty great to me for more southern areas, though I am not an expert. Looks nothing like the GFS. Expert opinion? Here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0
  14. I'm not really an expert but those Faxs look pretty great to me. Especially for valleys/Mid Wales. Even Cardiff/Swansea might get a dumping from that.
  15. Just had some sleety showers here... signs the cold is coming back. Met Offfice forecast this morning has snow for my town on Tuesday and Wednesday. http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/merthyr_tydfil_forecast_weather.html The GFS is horrible for us in Wales, even N. Wales. But the ECM and the GEM are great. UKMO are OK especially for Mid Wales.
  16. GFS has the atlantic smashing in by 2nd of Jan. Personally I think it's lost the plot, especially considering the OP was big mild outlier in FI on the 00z. Or it's somehow picked up something none of other models have.
  17. Well GEM shows blizzards down to the South coast while GFS has snow only for N. England/Scotland. Pretty big difference at just 3 days out I think.
  18. ECM @ Tuesday night Blizzards down to M4 GFS @ Tuesday night Blizzards only for N England/Scotland Also here's GEM, further south again. Huge disagreement at this range:
  19. I'm really confused about the GFS. It's been all over the place in this cold spell. The only models that have been consistent are the ECM and GEM. The GFS ensembles though have been decent for the South, but the op has been on the brandy a lot this Christmas i think.
  20. After seeing the 00z op I consoled myself that the 06z couldn't be any worse... I was wrong.
  21. For my area, for snow it looks like this: GFS op: Horrific GFS ensembles: OK ECM: Great GEM: Great UKMO: Poor FAX: OKish GME: Great I sure don't know what'll happen.
  22. The Beast from the East returns with vengeance in FI after a hard fought battle with the Altantic.
  23. The blocking is putting a valiant fight against the Atlantic on this run, looks like it might win too.
  24. For the record... the GEM and ECM have the snow boundary further South.
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