Backtrack
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Posts posted by Backtrack
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9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
I’m at a complete loss as to how it’s going to rain on Tuesday. Potent northerly with at least -10 uppers. Low pressure system bumping into it and instead of turning to snow it’s keeps at rain. Just to cap it off Yorkshire disruptive snow, Lancashire rain unless you live up a big hill. Just unbelievable.
Never underestimate the power of the Irish Sea. If there’s any W’erly element to that wind direction, there’s always the massive risk of marginality near coastal areas. It’s the reason why Liverpool is one of the least-snowy cities in N England
Mild air modification. The headache of the NW
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Defo..
I'm much happier it's UKMO showing the colder uppers - higher res model *should* trump GFS at day 3...
We won't have long to find out anyway..
Hasn’t the GFS had terrible verification stats recently? Or perhaps I’m delusional and clutching at straws because I’d like some weather that actually represents the season we’re supposed to be ‘enjoying’
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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
That’s a 2/300 mile difference at 3 days out. Shows the massive uncertainty at the minute
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2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
GFS12Z has no snow showers into NW early Tuesday.
Coming from a front rather than showers. Probably sucking the energy from potential shower activity. The models aren’t great in general for anything significant away from the far N of Scotland and far S of England if you ask me.
Good background signals for something building again toward the end of the month. But I’m bored of background signals now. It’s the same every year.
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Yep, was just about to post. Warm sector associated with Tuesdays PPN, likely rain W of Manchester if this verifies….
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1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:
Here’s the drizzle. Thought I said you could keep this
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3 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:
We got it this morning your turn now
We’ve had it non stop since last year, keep it
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6 minutes ago, Dan B said:
Raining here now
There was areas of drizzle in the forecast for today as the two (weak) cold fronts march south. Some sunshine next week will make up for it.
Has to be said, this feels like the dullest period of weather, ever!
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Really is just looking like a bog standard cold spell now. But did we really expect anything more? A 2/3 day northerly followed by a reload before milder air sweeps in by day 5. The net result being dry and slightly below average temperatures with night time temps not even dipping too low thanks to cloud.
Really is almost impossible to get a decent cold spell here anymore isn’t it.
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Not a good 12Z GFS for prolonged cold. Secondary low cuts off the flow and leaves us under +’itive uppers. Hopefully it’s not a trend. Eagerly await the ensemble suit.
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46 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:
There's a sniff of Spring. Lovely sunshine and a dryiing wind. We deserve it.
No sniff of spring here! The wind is taking every ounce of strength out of the sun
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- Popular Post
Super dry air out there this morning from the continent. Really has a different feel to it doesn’t it. Very little ice despite it being close to freezing when I got up, no moisture in the air. What a refreshing change.
Honestly, can someone tell me how long we’ve actually been locked into that disgusting pattern we’ve just emerged from? Because it feels like an eternity. Breath of fresh air this morning (literally).
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Just a nudge above 0C here when I got up. Feels bitter out.
Dunno why I bother going in that model thread. Full of new members asking whether it’s going to snow, or has snowed in the south east of England. Experienced members with in depth knowledge discussing warm sectors at T+240 and nailed on shortwaves at 12 days out.
It’s ridiculous. The southern bias is unreal with people complaining that it’s not cold enough on the south coast.
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Literally hasn’t stopped raining all day. A dry day was forecast with ‘a few light showers over higher ground’. Cheers Met Office. Another fantastic forecast from UK’s finest.
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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Cheshire Gap flow, bound to be raining in NW Midlands or Cheshire area
We usually miss out here during any Cheshire gap events. Typically because it’s not cold enough, it’s decided that we must be included.
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Raining this morning. Just to remind us that it can defy forecasts and that any dryness achieved yesterday must ultimately be undone. Just go away for a bit!
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10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
@Rain Lady above.
I suppose the clue is in the username too really
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Does anyone have any stats as to how the late autumnal-now period is shaping up in terms of rain? Because, honestly, it feels like it just hasn’t stopped raining since before time began.
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Happy new year everyone. Can’t believe the sun is out this morning. Maybe my memory isn’t great but I genuinely can’t remember the last time I saw the sun. Shame it’s only for a few hours between fronts today, but I’ll take it!
Cold & sunny weather on the horizon. Seems to be all we can achieve nowadays. Seem to remember a cold, sunny spell was the best that last winter had to offer too. But it’ll be very welcome. Some harsh frosts to come. Maybe we can get the snow in the second half of Jan.
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Lovely blue skies this morning, temp was a touch below -3C when I woke up. Got the dogs out for a nice early morning walk.
Proper shame that the front approaching from the west can’t hold off for a few more hours so we can have one sunny day before two weeks of grey gloom arrives.
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A dusting here. Stuck in between it all. Typical
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Few light showers of grauple, few flakes. Nothing special.
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-5.6C outside. Seriously impressive for this time of year (and part of the UK)
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What’s happened here then? A predicted 5C low from the Met. What do we have? The first frost of the year, current air temp is 0.0C with crystal clear skies.
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
A dusting of graupel everywhere this morning. Average temp over 3 sensors is -1.7C so way colder than forecast. Lovely sunny start.
It’s the 850 temperatures which aren’t productive, we could well end up with a spell of icy rain. 2m temps look fine probably sub-zero when PPN moves across