Backtrack
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Posts posted by Backtrack
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Forecast called for 17C with rain all day.
Instead I’m sat in the sun with a coffee. 20.0C
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Echoing the thoughts of above, no chance 27/28C will be achieved today unless this cloud shifts. Surface winds are supposed to back E soon, wether that pushes the cloud with it we’ll see, but it’s all further east that forecast for sure.
These showers were supposed to be over NI, not NW England
Edit: oooo I shall check the low, wonder if we got a tropical nightVerdict: no, 18.2C. Still impressive
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Forgive me if I’m reading the models wrong, but the GFS in particular isn’t showing anything remarkable in terms of temperatures after the first couple of days of high pressure becoming established.
The 00z has a NW’erly flow over the UK. The 06z however does look like changing that somewhat.
Positioning of the high is crucial. This may still not produce sunny, warm weather for a prolonged period.
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Yesterday was fantastic. Near unbroken sunshine and a top temp of 23.5C
Today has started bright, but rain is coming. The front is looking really weak and fragmented at the moment, so unless it gains a significant amount of intensity, it’s going to be a couple of hours of drizzle, rather than a soaking evening as forecast…
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23 minutes ago, danm said:
Made what clear? That no heatwave is on the cards, but possibly drier and sunnier at times? That's all I think that @Backtrack was suggesting.
The anomalies are incredibly useful, but they will miss microscale detail that could result in a different experience at times on the ground compared to what the they are suggesting.
You hit the nail on the head first time round. Transient HP intervals followed by breakdowns, rinse and repeat. No real heat and certainly no heatwaves showing, but a positive trend away from the abysmal July country-wide thus far with fewer rainier days and probably some more usable days.
Your second point there also about the day by day variances vs anomalies are exactly what I meant. Good at highlighting the overall, not so good at day-by-day.
Tbh though, it would take something special to deliver a worse summer month than what we are currently experiencing. So even the most novice of weather enthusiast would probably be on the money to suggest that August will be better than July.
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Today was meant to be a drier and much sunnier day. Alas, of course. It’s raining now. Belting it down actually.
What a terrible July. So depressing.
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16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
absolutely... the ECM Anomalies are hardly worth looking at past week 2, they have varied so much. I guess we need consistency before they can be taken seriously and atm there is none.
lol.. you say that, but..... the GFS average 850hpa chart August 4th
This agrees with the anomalies , so ignore the anomalies at your peril! lol.. unless all the anomalies start to agree with a pressure build into early August, any operational run showing that is highly likely to be inaccurate.
As i see it, August is likely to be better than July, from cool unsettled to average unsettled... with the old North South bias for warmest, sunniest, driest conditions in the South. But theres no heatwave or plume likely before mid August at the earliest.The average 850hpa chart isn’t what I was referring to in my post though. We know there’s no major, prolonged heat on the horizon but my point was there’s plenty of HP incursions happening on each run, with 2-6th August always showing up as a timeframe for ridging.
It’s all well and good using a chart to show the average, but those charts won’t paint the full picture as to what we can expect, rather just a generalisation and it’s why I don’t use them as much to show the day by day. The anomaly charts illustrate greatly the most likely overall scenario, but I can’t recall many, if any potent HP incursions in July for my location. August is currently offering that on pretty much every run with consistency surrounding particular dates.
Semi-reliable timeframe, warmer air being swept our way aloft. This chart leads to a pretty much above average day for much of England and Wales. Can’t say I’ve seen any days like this in July. A marked improvement. Followed clearly by a lower pressure incursion but the GFS is keen to build another transient ridge afterwards.
Building blocks and improvements.
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Regardless of what the anomaly charts are showing for the next 10-21 days, there’s a pressure rise coming our way.
The GFS has consistently been showing ridges of HP from around August 2nd for the past few days. Some of its output being more extreme, some output being more realistic, and I think at this point that it can’t just be dismissed.
I think perhaps people are looking for something spectacular in the mid-long term and dismissing what’s directly in front of us. Realistically, there’s nothing on the charts that’s remotely spectacular, there’s nothing reminiscing of June and there’s no ‘European heatwave extension’. There’s just some drier, sunnier weather on the horizon for the first week in August.
Positively, there’s also some warmer days showing up for the first week of August with consistency. This is a marked improvement over the entirety of July, and that’s certainly something to look forward to. It’s a pattern change and it’s what we’ve been looking for, just not an extremely amazing one which is what June perhaps made us more accustomed to.
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Drizzle and 16.5C. Where’s this washout? Front isn’t sinking south at all, should’ve been over us by now.
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A howler really from not just the Met, but even some of the modelling and higher resolution modelling. The bulk of the precipitation has pulled way south. We’re left in the middle with bright spells, high humidity and an air temperature of 19C. Bit of drizzle here and there. But it just feels like a typical unsettled summers day, rather than a soggy nightmare.
Forecasts have been poor all week really. The three day more settled spell that just went by was supposed to be showery and cool, that didn’t materialise, we had blue sky and a breeze with average temperatures.
Let’s see what tonight brings. Either way, I’ve growing confidence that the next ten days will see the last of the unsettled crap. August is going to be great this year. Models are toying with that idea every run.
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A nice day. Plenty of long sunny intervals, temperature hovering around 20C and no rain in sight. Stiff breeze is taking the edge off the temperature though unfortunately.
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Better than expected. Blue skies & sunshine at the moment with the signal for showers all but diminished for the rest of the day. Hopefully I’m primed for one of the sunnier locations again today. Yesterday, the sun hardly went in!
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23 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:
Yes not a heat fan myself, I know you are though and each to their own. But today has been great so far for getting outside and doing stuff. Warm enough in the sun without sweltering.
Absolutely a heat fan, May is my favourite month for it usually, can be scorching hot during the day but cools down nicely at night with the right airmass (probably E/SE) so it’s comfortable for sleeping.
I don’t think we’ll escape the heat this year though. We’re long overdue a scorching August. With so much heat hanging around the continent, it won’t take much to deliver it to our latitude.
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Just the odd cloud in the sky and a temperature of 21.5C in the shade with light winds. A fantastic summers day. I’m savouring this as I know we’re in for a horror show for the next 7 days.
UV of 7, very comfortable air temp. I was primed for one of the sunnier spots today and it’s certainly delivering. What an absolute relief this is, well needed. Yesterday was similar, albeit a wetter start.
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34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Could be ‘good’ but I have a feeling we may sit on the boundary of airmasses with warm weather further S and cloudy humid conditions up here. It’s quite rare that you see a UK wide HP set up during August as Atlantic troughing tends to encroach further into the NW of the UK due to changing seasonal wavelengths.
I’m hoping the latter part of your post is wrong! But whilst it has every chance of being right, I’m pretty sure that having a July like this one without a single hot, sunny day is also equally as rare, so too is a 45/50C heatwave across much of Europe. So I’m sure we’re due a bit of luck too
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I’ll paste my post from the model thread here:
Very slow and tentative signs on the models today as a whole. It’s been showing around the D10 mark now inconsistently, but I feel today has brought at least an element of consistently, which should bring at least a glimmer of hope at the end of a long and rainy tunnel. Pressure building one way or another, some runs suggested a hot end to the month.
So many have talked about balance, and how in a way we are being punished for having our HP & sunshine hours in June. So surely the balance rolls over to August, and lets our summer resume once more.
Closer to home though, tomorrow and Thursday are looking like very useable days on the models. A NW’erly flow bringing mostly sunny skies and a few scattered showers before it turns more aggressive for the weekend. Thankfully a weak area of HPkeeps it mostly dry tomorrow.
August could be good this year. Tentative teleconnection signals and longer range modelling hinting that summer could return. Could.
So hold tight folks, we could still take that trip to the beach yet.
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Very slow and tentative signs on the models today as a whole. It’s been showing around the D10 mark now inconsistently, but I feel today has brought at least an element of consistently, which should bring at least a glimmer of hope at the end of a long and rainy tunnel. Pressure building one way or another, some runs suggested a hot end to the month.
So many have talked about balance, and how in a way we are being punished for having our HP & sunshine hours in June. So surely the balance rolls over to August, and lets our summer resume once more.
Closer to home though, tomorrow and Thursday are looking like very useable days on the models. A NW’erly flow bringing mostly sunny skies and a few scattered showers before it turns more aggressive for the weekend. Thankfully a weak area of HP keeps it mostly dry tomorrow.
August could be good this year. Tentative teleconnection signals and longer range modelling hinting that summer could return. Could.
So hold tight folks, we could still take that trip to the beach yet.
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14.3C at 1pm in mid-July. Is this some sort of sick joke?
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The models are looking a bit better for a more settled spell in my opinion towards D10 and beyond. Some transient ridging that seems to become slightly more prolonged on each run.
Cant see any heat, but at this time of year it doesn’t really matter as long as you have the sun. In terms of balance, you’d say we’re overdue a bit of a hot spell. Yes, we had a record breaking June. But there wasn’t really any ‘true’ heat until the last couple of days of the spell where we scraped 30C.
Hopefully august delivers, it rarely does, and I usually class it as a write off/autumn month. But balance!
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Yeah, yet another day of bleak outlook. There’s just no end to it. All the forecasters have to do at the moment is copy and paste the following:
Showers interspersed by bright spells. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. Maximum temperature, 20C.
That’s it. It’s the same every day. Poor for July. I guess this is the first month of our 11 month autumn then. August is always poor, summer is over.
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Nice sunny morning, now replaced with an abundance of showers. The blue skies and summer weather of June is now just becoming a distant memory. It's shaping up to be a really bad July and the outlook remains really poor for the next 10 days at least.
It's more insult to injury when you check the charts and see that the rest of Europe is enjoying a high pressure dominated July, and we're stuck at the mercy of the jet stream.
Really frustrating.
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Lovely day yesterday with plenty of sunshine. Nice and warm in the sun. A great start to the day this morning too, lovely hot sunshine and plenty of blue sky. Hopefully it continues.
The outlook for July has been and still is really bleak, but every day is better than forecast.
Tomorrow looks hot & sunny. Hopefully we can get one more long, warm and sunny spell before august, which is typically a write off month.
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Whilst is was cool last night, today has seen the return of very warm & humid weather. Usually a westerly would really clear the air. But since the SST’s are so far above average, it’s just like a breezy, great summers day.
It’s 22C, there’s no rain, hardly any cloud in the sky and a lovely breeze. If this is the weather that this ‘unsettled week’ promises. Then please feel free to linger around.
What a great summer so far!
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According to my station 23.5C was the overnight low which probably isn’t right. Perhaps it reset this morning or something.
Not enough sunshine around this morning to boost the temperatures enough for thunderstorms later I suspect. I reckon just a rapid cooling of the air later on. Excited for a week of more normal temperatures.
Suspect July will show its true colours from the second week. Blocked, dry and hot is my forecast.
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Northwest Weather Discussion
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
The Met’s text forecast gives a special mention to the S of the region for rain, and Cumbria for the sunshine.
I think it stalled further S than they thought.
Agreed. Few spots of rain now though. But the sun has been out most of the day!