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Higher Ground

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Posts posted by Higher Ground

  1. Quite heavy rain/sleet now. You can really see how there was potential for an amazing event today.

    At the same time, you can also see why such amazing events are so rare! Conditions really do need to come together exactly.

    Well done to all who had predicting wet snow and puddles all along. We are lucky on our midlands board to have people who can keep their feet on the ground and make realistic predictions. Although I'm sure you wouldn't have minded too much if you had predicted it wrong!

    It's all fallen as snow here, but still only enough to give about 2.5cm/1 inch on the grass, which is a long way from an amazing event. Still we're very lucky to have even that of course.

    I'm hoping it will stick around to form an icy base for a bigger snow event tomorrow, leading to ideal conditions for sledging for the people of SW Brum! Can only hope......

    Still snowing moderately, but looking at radar I guess most of the precip band is nearly through now. (?)

  2. a total write off here, sleety at the moment, never going to accumulate at this rate, having had rain for a good 30 mins beforehand. whats it like up the lickeys higher ground?

    Been busy for a few hours, trying not to get too distracted by snow outside!

    We've got 2cm or so on grass, less on pavements etc where it's rather slushy.

  3. like has been said, given your mighty elevation, that should stand you in better stead this morning. are you in romsley or something?

    Where i am on the Lickey Hills is about the same height as the very top of Romsley, and Waseley (about 286m/935 feet). The top of the Lickeys is 298m (about 980 feet) and the top of the Clent Hills is 315m (about 1030 feet).

    Snow is gradually increasing in intensity now (though still v light), and the flakes are pretty slow to melt. It will be good to see lying snow if only for the brightening effect it will have: very grey out at the mo with visibility no more than 200m.

  4. Morning Higher Ground.

    I think you might be lucky given your location and elevation but I suspect you'll be on the border line of any PPN falling as snow. West/North West of Brum will be very marginal especially at lower elevations. I suspect the Bridgnorh/Telford/Shrewsbury guys (and probably me) will be somewhat dissappointed today.

    However, I live in hope & have packed the Army Surplus shovel and hesian sacks in the car!

    Edit: Dudley showing +1ºc Temp & Dew Point already nonono.gif

    Yes looking very marginal generally. But who knows what might be pulled out of the hat? Dew points go up, dew points go down...........

    Edit: just saw first snow flakes floating around in the mist

  5. Morning all. Key to snow today are 1/ Elevation and 2/ heavy precipitation [evaporative cooling]. Certainly the Western Midlands looks favourable even at low levels for snow at some point but if youre on high ground you will see the best chance [as always with this sort of set up. You will notice with the charts ive posted a surface flow from a very cold continent, favourable 850mb temps and given enough heavy precip chance of rain turn to snow event even on low ground. Ive highlighted in a red circle the areas likely to see potential snow. PS .A tip, if you have radar the brighter the colours coming to you would mean a good chance of snow!! yahoo.gifcold.gifclap.gif

    Thanks. What's it been like where you are? Precip hasn't quite arrived here yet.

  6. Actually - let me just offer a major change of NAE emphasis tomorrow - new run offers 10-20cm snow potential in a band from SE Wales across to Lincs (including Glos) and clearly has makings of a high profile event; however this major change from last NAE prog is noteworthy (it's because new run wants to depress the BL temp's further tonight).... next run awaited before UKMO decides whether to go with early warning over and above current advisory.

    What does BL stand for please?

  7. Of course - but being a thread about the CET that's what we tend to talk about! wink.gif

    laugh.gif But I was taking issue with someone assuming the CET represented the whole country's temperatures. Since Dec, the CET has been under-representative of the wider cold. For example, in both Scotland and Northern Ireland (as well as incidentally Ireland I understand) Dec 2009 was the coldest Dec since 1981 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/december.html unlike with the CET.

  8. Interesting statistics with regard to the 31 day colder spells in 1986, 1991, I hope people don't believe we have endured the coldest sustained period of temperatures since 81/82 as the media keep saying, no we have not, 1986 and 1991 have beaten it. We've had the coldest sustained spell of weather relative to the time of year since 81/82 but not the coldest.

    I wouldn't be so sure whether 1986, and certainly 1991, will end up having beaten it in Scotland, or even in the north of England. Remember you're talking specifically about the CET. As for the temperature for the whole of the UK, it remains to be seen how this stacks up in terms of 31 day spells.

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