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Nights King

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    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Some modelling does, hence the Blue line & second favourite option.  Enjoy a few frosts next week mate.  😁👍🏻

    Last few winters have been pitiful here. Cornwal and devon have acrued more snow days in recent years than us 

    End of this year I am moving back up to top of mendips to mullenders hill again but not much has happened there either lately.

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    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, AWD said:

    The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below;

    IMG_0798.thumb.jpeg.ce782e4fea8d5e6ac6fb6abcccbf3865.jpeg

    Each line being the northern extent of any PPN.

    Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured.

    Blue line - 25% chance

    Green line - 15% chance

    Yellow line - 10% chance 

    5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc.  Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty.

    Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain.  There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast.

    Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week.  Not often we say that!!

    As much as I want the yellow line or the 5 % option I think it is pretty good assesment.

    I might be tempted to move green line a touch further inland though.

    I was kind of hoping the models would just all sink it into france and be done with it so we didnt cling on to this false hope for days in advance! 😶

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

    I think their treats will come from a northerly direction. Some of the Northern forums might be a bit busier than our own over the next week or so.

    Devon and Cornwall could get in on the action if a Pembroke dangler was to appear mind.

     

    That would be 2 events for Devon and Cornwal this winter so far..

    I have a sinking feeling about this cold spell for most of us just like that front will sink over coming days. 🙄

    Chilly week followed by mixing out of cold following weekend without a battleground is my best guess. 🧐🤮

    • Like 3

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Every possibility we could see some flakes pretty much anywhere, although Hampshire & Dorset favoured for our part of the region.

    I’d keep those ski’s & sledges firmly padlocked away in the garage though.

    Nice to see colder weather but far from excited by current prospects.

    Average to chilly january weather but at least it isnt raining anymore.

    • Like 2
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