Nights King
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Posts posted by Nights King
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21 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
The term b*gger all comes to mind, as with the rest of the winter, wrong place wrong time, wrong wind direction, wrong everything.
Still it is looking cold again tonight even with the wind still around, currently -1.1°C , and falling, not bad as we can't quote "And in the snowfields it will drop to..."...maybe "In the green fields of the South West..it'll drop".. What happened to IF's suggestion of the cold winning out, few are suggesting that now?
I am tempted to throw in the towel and call winter over.
Running out of time and future cold spell has melted away, snow in march is rarer than hens teeth away from hills.
Feel very down on this winter to be fair.
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Well I've just been out and cut the lawn ready for spring. Looks very smart. Shouldn't cut in winter but it's hardly wintry and dry easterly made it lovey to trim.
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What an awful cold spell. Battleground snow.. Yes whatever I've seen more snow in June before.
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1 minute ago, AWD said:
Meto (bearing in mind their forecasts will be based on 0z data for now), are following their own models, Iike UKV/UKMO etc, hence why I keep refering to the ICON as an outside chance etc.
However, they do stress uncertainty and Ian F did say they take the ICON seriously so, along with the fact the Arpege has now moved significantly towards it, it is a straw we can clutch for now.
Can I share that one straw with you
We need some damn luck even if it is only a one day wonder we damn deserve it.
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15 minutes ago, AWD said:
Wait, we have some semi-support for the ICON now. The French Arpege model as swung quite a bit towards it. The 12z run below;
It's not quite as good as the ICON, in that it doesn't get the front quite as far east, nor is the PPN intensity as heavy as shown on the ICON, BUT compared to its 0z run, the best 0z chart is shown below;
That's a pretty big swing to the ICON output. Forget localised detail for now and just look at the difference between the 0z & 12z Arpege. Still need improvements from the Arpege, but it's a big step in the right direction. Could the mighty ICON really be onto something?
Just seen met office 10 day trend it doesnt look anytyhing like this but next week certainly looks wet and mild.
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Nothing here today but I've had no snow melting at all this cold spell, quite impressive really. See picture below for current conditions..
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3 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:
Stroud right on the southern edge of the new MO warnings for Saturday. Still a chance of some snow I reckon
There is literally a warning out for everywhere now except central south and south west.
Splendid.
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Just need wales to be put into warning for snow dome to be complete. Not that I'm bitter..
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Just now, AWD said:
Could be dry, could be wet, could be cold, could be mild, could be snowy, could be cloudy, could be sunny, could be windy.
However, it's not looking like there is going to be any thunderstorm activity nor is there going to be a heatwave.
I think that just about covers it for now.
Id almost put money on less than 1cm of snow for most of west country this cold spell..
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Just now, khodds said:
Maybe this is another turning point... let’s see what the 18z brings
The straw that I clutch onto is that cold air is never modelled well and tends to be tougher to move than models forecast so we may get upgrades closer to events but lets just see.
I shall put my hopium bong away for now.
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2 minutes ago, AWD said:
12z ICON is a perfect BANK for many of us for Saturday.
Firstly, it continues the trend for light, fragmented snow over Devon on Thursday night;
Then look at this for Saturday;
Compared to ANY 0z output, that's a massive improvement for many of us. Just a shame it's the ICON and not something more reliable.
That would be a dream liie outcome but much like yourself my initial optomism has melted away like the flurry we had yesterday.
Doesnt look great and I will kick myself for not being over 200m if we get a sleety mess again.
Tonight I will forget about weather and models and play age of empires and dream about my bitcoin.
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17 minutes ago, khodds said:
I’m loving it! A nice covering now! Unexpected so that’s great!
Some how it parted like the red sea as it meandered slightly north on its westward track and i have nothing but couple of flakes.
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Just seen BBC weather... Showing snow event in West but CD air winning right into next week. I feel its out of date lol
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I wouldn't bank on a decent snow to rain event awd either. Tell me honestly last one you can remember that lasted more than half an hour before rain?
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Well after checking models this evening I am still none the wiser
Chances always seem 5 days away for us only to melt away.
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12z GFS sums up our chances quite well for monday 15th with a rain event.
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44 minutes ago, Matty-H said:
Shaping up to be complete gash this spell. At least as far as this week is concerned for here.
Not heard this phrase for a while but it sums up our chances well.
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Well after a brief flurry earlier and some excitement about the streamer setting up its gone a bit pantz
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Steady light snow started here with a occasional moderate burst!
It is melting though and not settling.
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Its been a long morning. Can this streamer push a bit further west.....
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1 minute ago, birdman said:
Why don't you use the Met Office one it's much better?
Why would I trust one that doesn't forecast me snow!?
To be honest I think they both as useless as each other.
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If you play back last 15/20 mins of radar there is some intensification of ppn over Norfolk way.
A glimmer of hope perhaps?
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
They put a warning out because its so rare that they fear panic buying and fear if it snows now.