Cheese Rice

High ground of Manchester will do well 150m+

Im referencing the densely populated southern part of Nw England where the majority of users are based.

It'll snow for definite but I'd wager they are concerned about temporary accumulations, strong winds reduced visibility etc.Not one high resolution models Shows lying snow for lowland north west England. Infact some don't even signal snow just rain.

EURO 4 is the main modeL used by the met office. The same met office that came up with those warnings based on its output. Okay the densely populated parts of thE north west.

EURO4 accumulations indicative of marginal nature of event. Low lying accumulations look very unlikely at this stage.

North west England isn't going to do well at all but according to private messages from people from the North West thread I can't post because 1.) I'm not From the North West 2.) The regional threads aren't for technical weather discussion, it's a chat thread, anything other than posting pretty pictures of snow symbols from the BBC 5 day thread is for the model thread 3.) Ruining the mood by stating the obvious I think the streamers will continously sink south so a bit like troughs.

Yeah the region will do really well. The EURO4 charts are indicative of widespread snow accumulaccumulations. North West England looking to see a wintry mixture, places like Manchester seeing a covering at best. Which leads me too my next point, the snow *may* be wetter in nature across low lying areas so it's more a case of keeping the showers coming which they look to be.

Okay thankyou I never look below the 850hpa level so interesting to see where you are coming from. :-)

I've looked though the 12z NMM 5km and it's showing mostly rain for NW England unless inland. Do you think perhaps there's an underestimation of the warming effect from the Irish sea essentially cancelling out the cold uppers? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=72&mode=42&map=5

Yorkshire should do really well out of this. Showers should push well inland right towards costal district. Most areas should wake up to at least a covering on TThursday. Friday looks a touch marginal so maybe more of a wintry flavour than a snowy one.

Im happy to be proved wrong hopefully it snows copious amounts.

I travel to Manchester regularly for work. Moot point.

Thank you for a reasoned response I've looked at various parameters and am struggling to see snow away from mostly high ground inland. The short window of opportunity I was talking about earlier still exists when the NW taps into a pool of -8 uppers (Wed Night). Above the wbfl is at about 100m all well and good for low lying areas. Freezing levels around 200m so while I expect falling snow it will need to be pretty heavy/continuous for low lying accumulations. Throughout the night higher uppers creep in. The next night sees uppers of -5 which aren't good enough I'm afraid. Freezing level for cheshire is 600m on that.

Oh dear I've completely set off the North West forum for suggesting it to be wintry rather than snowy, with a risk of rain towards the coast, as per the met office warning. Seems some can't have a reasonable discussion without resorting to digs. And its funny how the thread that continually worships the computer generated BBC/Meto five day forecasts are now completely disregarded for showing rain. Its nice on this thread we have reasoned discussions on why we think certain conditions will occur without silly digs just because we aren't all singing from the same tune.

Yes where you should be allowed to post what you perceive -looking at various charts- to be the outcome of said weather conditions. Nothing wrong with disagreeing but there's no need for digs as if its a personal vendetta against the NW forum.

I actually said temporary accumulations to lower levels possible -inland- providing there are heavy enough showers. And tbf your location is generally perceived as high ground.

I was completely correct in my assertion last week that uppers were not conductive of low lying snow, stressing wintry rather than snowy potential. I'm not sure where you are going with this because I kept continually stressing that point and I was completely correct. Where are all the pictures of low lying areas seeing lying snow? It was marginal even in Yorkshire with wintry deposits to lower levels. Its disappointing to see a minority on here taking an authoritative role against anyone that goes against a snow agenda. Its a meteorology forum not a snow only forum.

And that will be great if it does upgrade but facts are facts the Meto warning does not cover the majority of the highly populated GM & Liverpool/Cheshire/costal districts. But according to this thread the met office is going for a snow fest. I'm not a massive fan of the computer generated 5 day forecast but they are indicative of the upper profile conditions. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123 The Met office model clearly indicates a rain scenario for the Manchester. I think it will be wintry but not snowy.

Hardly.My location is completely influenced by the north westerly airflow where even here struggled to see more than temporary dustings in the last pm disaster. Despite multiple heavy snow showers the snow kept melting inbetween. And the met office warning clearly states away from windward costal districts. The reality is if the met office warning is correct these ares are at risk. I'd be interested to know how many of you are actually in the red zone? Considering cheshire isn't even in any warning zone so no the met office aren't seeing it your way.

This thread is like last week all over again. I've looked at the upper air profile and I'm afraid there's a very short opportunity of snowfall when a brief pool of -8 uppers push in. But for the most part it looks wintry not snowy. Accumulations reserved for 200m asl, temporary accumulations to low ground though mostly transient in nature. Even then well inland perhaps Manchester area could see a covering.

I'm Sceptical of costal areas seeing lying snow but anywhere east of the 2.c line should do well. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/modeloutputnmm/20150125/12/lores/87/nmmuktempnew.png

I've learnt alot over the last pm disaster and this cold spell is -currently- not conductive for low lying snow over southern England. The spell favours high ground in Northern England/ Northern Ireland and Scotland. Eventually the uppers get mixed out further with a stationary low, of course this can all change but we need a blast of sub -7 uppers to move away from the wintry theme in the south to a snowy outlook.

Yeah it's snowing again here too.

Its a mixture of UHI and elevation. Closer to the city centre it's hovering between 80-100m the snow line. The centre has seen quite a bit of falling snow. Struggling to settle at all mind but not drizzle and rain and the hills isn't 100m asl in the suburbs.

Paul Hudson annoys me. "snow on the hills, elsewhere drizzle, rain and sleet" I was at 120m earlier and it was settling on the roads with a good 5cm on the paths. This is in the suburbs of Leeds not far from the centre.