Cheese Rice

Yup and it seems to be backbuilding should see snow from that at this elevation

The uppers are around -4 regardless though dew points are slightly warmer for southern areas of the region. Could work in our favour as it keeps precipitation over us for longer as the low rotates. Despite the light rain temperatures are dropping away, now at 2.c bodes well even for moderate precipitation.

Front is about 100 miles further north so it will be interesting to see what bearing this will have. More so when it rotates and pulls south could see it lingering for longer. Uppers won't be affected as they were always going to be -4 either side of Yorkshire even with the Northern correction.

Rain shadow for Leeds so looks like a wait for precipitation.

Taken from the North West thread Currently have sleet in east manc @150m Hopefully we will get lucky Like thi No chance for low ground though, just too mild.

Freezing levels according to the NMM get down to 100m during mid morning so maybe a tricky commute.

Any snow round the North West atm? Also NMM looks fantastic for parts of the North West. I'd expect the front to starts as cold rain and as the low rotates dragging colder air it should turn to snow perhaps even to lower levels.

The front is really peppering up now, temperature here is slowly dropping currently 3.c (forecast 4.c for this time). In any other situation I'd say we were right on track with the current temperature profile but i'm expecting cold rain until the front rotates and drags in colder air during the early hours.

NMM looks fantastic

NMM has freezing levels down to 200m. So I think anywhere above 100m has a shot at seeing some lying snow. Below that a wintry mixture of rain sleet and wet snow.

BBC seems to think the snow will get down to quite low levels, no clarification on low level mind. And what indices are you using? I mean if your just looking at everything bar the PPN type chart it can give the impression of zero snowfall potential. But sometimes it can be conclusive for snowfall during exceptionaly marginal conditions. The EURO4 can be really quite good at spotting localised snowfall potential even when on the face of it upper atmospheric conditions don't look at that conclusive. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/12/basis12/ukuk/weas/16011406_1212.gif

As the low rotates and drags colder air around we should see a period of snowfall in places, emphasize on localized accumulations rather than widespread.

Thursday Morning two different models Saturday Morning Its too early to pin point exactly where the PPN will be to a teeth, however there's a general idea that there should be some precipitation perhaps heavy on Thursday.

Well its not, the cars in low ground Horsforth around 100m are iced over.

Well it is alot colder here today than forecast so we may see some surprises along the way. Forecast max around this time 4.c it's currently 1.c and pretty bitter. Alot of Yorkshire is colder than expected.

Well we asked and tomorrow could be a nice surprise, NMM and NetWx-SR model both showing snow potential for central areas.

Bad news the ECM/GFS and European High Resolution models have all dropped the chance of precipitation on Thursday. Its a bit early but I'm willing to put a bet we don't see any meaningful precipitation due to such high level of cross model consistency, game over!

The ECM has potentially strong snow signal, the ECCM ppn/ppn type maps highlight this quite well, but only if the precipitation is of reasonable intensity, light ppn just isn't going to cut it.

Doesn't help that it's linked to a change in atmospheric conditions rather than a variation of precipitation intensity which is also distinctly lacking on the 12z. We loose the initial lobe of -5 850's that rap around the low making it too mild below 300m. Still no reason to be downbeat, each run will always produce different outcomes at this juncture.

Yeah I think we'll be fine at our elevation. But tbh I'd rather it not be marginal to lower ground as that increases the quality of snow for us. But that chart only tells one story I can't tell if there is any warmer air at any other levels. Maybe @johnholmes can shed some light as he's really good at these things

It's not the snow charts I'm worried about I don't think getting precipitation will be an issue it's the 850's are on the marginal side regardless and that's unlikely to change. If we get light/moderate winds from the west it's game over as well. For now winds are light and coming from the south so fingers crossed!

Posted on the mod thread.... Shows how marginal it's going to be. May be some disappointed faces on lower ground.

It'll be Night time as well, definitely helping the front with it coming in around midnight allowing temps a chance to fall beforehand. But like you said it'll be marginal, I think above 100m should see the lower end of 2-5cm. 200m+ the skies the limit.

I think if you've got a bit of elevation, not much only about 100m then you should do well next week. The front pushing through on Thursday could deliver 2-5cm widely. Current GFS is showing a very significant snowfall for higher elevations a good 10-20cm as the front lingers for 24 hours. But it's too far away to resolve these types of details so for now I'm sticking to 2-5cm. The GFS/ECM allows the cold to dig in quite well in the south, didn't really think it would with the models trending away from cold establishing itself away from the north Quote Edit

I think if you've got a bit of elevation, not much only about 100m then you should do well next week. The front pushing through on Thursday could deliver 2-5cm widely. Current GFS is showing a very significant snowfall for higher elevations a good 10-20cm as the front lingers for 24 hours. But it's too far away to resolve these types of details so for now I'm sticking to 2-5cm.