rich1

A lot of people are keen to write off any chace of colder weather coming back next week but that might end up being a tad premature ECM is thinking about it IMO... doesnt really get all that mild over the weekend, average for many at best seemingly then...who knows? cant see a flip back to the standard pattern this winter at this time. it could happen but my unscientific view is that this is one of those winters...

they havent always been up to much in recent times but is interesting that the ensemble mean does suggest the cold will not be away too long ECM could be of some interest this evening, if its anything like its equivalent yesterday then next week could be interesting as it is the charts look on the face of it to be a 'stuck in the middle' scenario, as we have seen this winter, mild weather has struggled to impose itself and even in the short range there are room for differing evolutions still

There are several here who need to learn how to read the charts The ECM solution looks like it could end up being the end result cold south/south/east draw from a freezing continent followed by pressure building to the north east and another push from that direction not an Atlantic breakdown, more a interlude which will probably be cloudy and cold for many areas away from Ireland, then the bitter weather returns happened a lot in the cold winters of bygone eras, and this one is a throwback to that time IMO coldest January for many years could be in store

you shouldnt have bothered... as it is, still a lot of variability in the short range lookin at the synoptic charts for the end of the week, wouldnt take a big change for cold to return even if it turns less cold for a while

A lot of discrepancies in the output, I think as for what happens midweek onwards is a coin toss, a lot of divergence from very early on so nothing ca be taken as read in all honesy I suspect a lot of the 'cold spell over' postings hae been from those in areas that got more of a thaw today i.e. the north east and eastern coastal counties...just a hunch this is an old skool winter with old skool battleground scenarios which tend to be inconsistently modelled and forecasted. Todays thaw in some areas was due to a influx of warmer uppers which isnt that unusual, and not from a creeping atlantic incursion which some people seem to think it is

milder air again fails to make much headway on this run hopefully may be some clearer spells at night, which would be handy in holding existing snowcover

heavier burst here now, unexpected

flurries gradually turning in to persistent light snow here with darkening skies slipping in under the radar maybe

slow thaw, some snizzly stuff in the morning but there are some bigger flakes appearing now from time to time

may be a slow thaw in some places but the models seem to be backing away from a breakdown all the time...

a few little flurries in the wind here too am not expecting much fo the next few hours but we will see what develops downwind am quite happy with what I have, will look back on this and feel this is the best winter I can remember really, no matter what happens for the rest of it and I cant see february being dominated by a bartlett or anything, and there is no real sign of anything mild for the forseeable future with the models backing off a proper breakdown patience, a rare commodity these days, could be the thing, but in hindsight many of us will remember this winter as a classic. No double figure temps since the first half of december and a January which may be below the 2 degrees CET value...its a real possbility think back to 2007-8...now that was pants

could get a very low january CET out of this...its a holy grail of sorts these days generally am happy with the trend of the day Im looking to get as many days with snow on the ground as possible...11 days and counting so far this winter, this run would keep most of it for a good while been a very good winter so far, may end up a properly severe one

Well, for me am not too fussed, did well on tuesday and got an unexpected 1-2 cm this evening from light snow and flurries I sense there is a slightly negative slant from a few here, especially those who maybe just missed out on the whiteouts in parts of kent this evening though at the same time I wouldnt be expecting a huge dumping generally,plenty of time still for something more interesting for more people to appear in the North Sea so on either side of the debate, from Francis Wilson and the met Office and those who are maybe sulking a tad, we wont know for sure till tomorrow, no ones word is gospel here mind you Its a nowcast scenario...looks quiet for the next couple of hours, after then, who knows...tbh I am not expecting a great deal but I didnt expect a cheeky little top up from about 4pm this evening when the forecast was isolated flurries

TBH I think the output is struggling a tad, even the ECM doesnt exactly promote a full blown Atlantic takeover and he uppers still look pretty cold for the most part breakdown it could be but mild it isnt really, and the evolution looks a bit confused think there may be a trend for less cold out there but as for how long it lasts, it doesnt look like a return to 'normal' to me bet had the output been around in 1979 or 1963 there woud have been a few runs like these, as it is there wasnt sub zero temps every day I would say next week is hugely uncertain, for me I would like the cold to continue but still feel we have done really quite well so far so if we did get a less cold interval it wouldnt be the end of the world, but I think there is a way to go yet before we get a clearer picture as to where the rest of january will go

Blimey...44 parts...of largely absolute drivel, with people posting stuff like 'Is kent near Bristol' and 'massive downgrades in the tv forecasts ' and reams of txt spk and other such inanities though I love the genuine excitement of those who do see snow falling from the sky, and it seems to be for people of all ages, a real contrast to the news reports who seem to see snow as an evil being which has no place in this global warming hippie society we live in. Thank god for Rob Mckelwee eh anyway, those in kent are catching up a bit from not getting as much as other areas [like mine] got on tuesday/wednesday but towards Sunday more of us should see snow coming further inland as the east wind picks up and any weakening of the cold spell looks very hesitant and half baked. A real blast from the past this winter and tbh its been the best one I can remember whatever happens in the future. It is also worth bearing in mind that tv forecasts are moe about trends rather than details as far as snow is concerned especially with regard to those dodgy graphics the BBC now use, looks promisin though for those south of the M4 generally enjoy it guys, you dont get many winters like these, and tbh I find it encouraging that we can still get a cold/severe winter in this day and age, when many people thought it was impossible

looks as though GFS has gone off the idea of breaking the whole lot down on wednesday good enough for me, wouldnt be worrying too much about marginality unless you live near the coast, sometimes I feel it can be a case of people feeling insecure about the prospects unless every single factor is in favour, as I see it many areas have existing deep snowcover and feel that the progged maxes may be a little colder in reality. is not a particularly 'wet' run but these things can be tricky to be definite in terms of precipitation so in synoptic terms, better than the last run and maybe following [again] the euro models in the mid term. Looks as though I will keep my snow for some time yet

There is a low approaching on all 3 charts but it behaves in a different manner and it makes big differences down the line ECM is the best evolution for cold and it is reckoned to be the best performing model so this one is very much up in the air and it would be brave to back against the status quo

ECM not going with the GFS from what I can gather from the charts [which I dont know how to post], looks as though the lows are further west and may end up forced under the block so I wouldnt be writing off this spell just yet

Because it probably doesnt know what is going to happen it could be right but sense it will be slower than that I reckon the Atlantic may make a push but is not this year guaranteed to win. Expect a period of swinging output for a while

Finally got my power bck on...EDF, more What Da F*** anyway, looking at the models, think the GFS is maybe getting a bit over excited too early but not too bothered by a breakdown now, done pretty well here out of the spell sense though its not quite finished with us and wont gve up that easily on us. I feel a slow rise in temperatures next week is what we may be looking at still a lot of uncertainty though

had bout 2 inches in 30 minutes, some huuuge flakes here Im 28 and I felt like I did in 1987 and 1991

Now hammering it down here 5 miles south of Guildford...been a bit frustrating this past hour or so but now its getting going my brother is a student teacher and hes praying for a day off tomorrow

Ah, finally, it has started again I wonder whether we will end up getting the heavy stuff here though, is pretty light/moderate but at least its falling again

had about a cm then it stopped and hasnt for about half an hour...frustrating this we are supposed to be in the firing line will check again in half an hour

Christ, even my bird knows that its nowhere near and shes from the far east [as in Asia, not Dover ] sums this thread up sometimes lets put it ths way for all the worriers...we wont know where it will fall until tomorrow but in central areas down to about say the new forest area you will probably do ok from this. Others far east, like kent, may have to wait 24 hours at most to see something and thats not a hard and fast estimate by any means but its one based on the output may well be a bit further east than on the forecast maps at the moment, though maybe not much