rich1

Would be happy enough for us to break out of the Euro high pattern which the GFS says could well happen and take our chances with some mobility southerly tracking lows have been a feature of recent winters, which may unlock the door for something more interesting at some point next month. 2009 is perhaps a worthwhile starting point of how patterns could evolve. Prepared to be patient on that front

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png after the 23rd, a bit more unsettled, a bit less mild. Still looks cooler leading in to next month here at least though nothing amazing. Not an overwhelming zonal zig zag pattern either from what I can see though expect increased mobility to be a possible feature for the fag end of this month wouldnt be looking for any noticeably cold weather this month, though its not impossible, reckon its very unlikely. Maybe December may offer a bit more promise later on. All in good time

Classic Euro high there, looks very familiar. 1906 incidentally was also the year of 'the great Xmas snowstorm' which only goes to show that even unpalatable looking charts in late November dont always have to stay there in to winter

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png If these were my homework I would have said my dog had eaten it and it would look convincing. Can be described generously as confused looks like indecision between european blocking and atlantic incursions in the medium term from about the 23rd with a split variance in upper air temps Couple of brief yet sharp cold incursions on a couple of outlying runs, with the mean dipping below average way out in the end. There is some sort of loose trend on these [and on other charts which have found themselves in to operationals from time to time] for it to be less mild by the start of next month. The op is the mildest run by the end. Its not really a zonal set of ensembles either, well, not at the moment anyway met office still going with a fall in temperatures and an increased risk of frost for the first half in December on their extended outlook though I for one do not expect a repeat of last year, the idea of a trend to more appealingly seasonal weather eventually would not be an outlandish or unexpected development

Toss up between this and 2009, very zonal, very wet and it did look familiar but mid December it changed markedly. There is little of real interest happening in the short and medium term so November for me is close to being formally written off. However there have been colder looking charts appearing on a few occasions in recent days later on. They may not verify but a week or two ago it was just nothingness all the way through. There are some discrepancies there which I have noticed in the last couple of days, and with that uncertainties It isnt imminent right now, but worth keeping half an eye on. In the short term its a choice between increased mobility and unsettled mildish weather or perhaps a more settled outlook with some surface cooling from the continent, the output hasnt quite decided on that yet. Am not sure this pattern will produce for us so perhaps a more mobile spell might unblock the bowels of the output and perhaps allow in a 2009 type scenario sometime in December with the increased tendency in recent seasons for northern blocks to form with the minimum of encouragement, as a contrast to the pre 2008 period when even with all the telleconections in the world in our favour, nothing seemed to come off for us. Be interesting to see how things progress beyond the next week or two. Could be more of the same but some CFS charts have teased us with some late december chill lately on a few runs, just for fun

If we cant have snow, a bit of anticyclonic frost and fog will suit me fine. Think 1995 was the last time I saw any of that down here Last year was probably the best year for Xmas weather down here in my memory, a thickish coating of snow and a max of -1 degrees that lay until the 27th-28th. 2009 was chilly and sunny [snow melted on the 23rd], 2004 was cold and sunny [before disgusting mild wet weather invaded before the new year]. A healthy portion of meh describes every other year except perhaps 2000 [turned colder through the day] and 1996 [snow showers in the morning] and 1993 [cold with light snow showers early] This year? Find some encouragement that people havent given up on December yet, for me its hard to tell but a blocking anticyclone with inversion frosts could be a punt. Will be in Fife this year for Christmas, but a 3rd white Xmas for the north in succession may be a bit of a stretch. First time for everything though, an ENE wind would do the business there Oh and had just seen Mr Datas historical chart from 1906, which had an even warmer Euro High firmly in control round the 23rd November. That year had a big blizzard setting up on Xmas and boxing day with cold weather lasting to the new year according to reports. Not a believer in pattern matching as such but does show how colder weather this year in December is still very possible at this point

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png no suprises for the next few days but the mean is just about spot on the average line in the closing days of the month with a spread of options as I expect to happen, doesnt look like anything wintry emerging before the end of the month but not exceptionally mild looking by the closing stages taken as a whole. op run is one of the mildest options in the last week with some support but cools off a bit at the death. I think what is likely is a notably warm November as a whole hoping for a switchback come December, no signals yet but there werent really in 2009 either from what I can remember. May happen, may not

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png Not perfect by any means but have seen worse. A few colder charts have been around for some runs for the last knockings of November. This wont last all that long with that pattern but its better than what we have had these past few weeks/month some way out in the land of nod though

My own view on the LRF business ties in with the Met Office quotation on the BBC site which is in their own words 'The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster'. May add a bit longer for stuck in a rut patterns such as these but not 6 weeks myself. There are so many variables to consider. At the moment they arent on our side which is why I dont envisage anything much colder than average before the month is out. Before the chaos theory comes in to play, and of course in recent years we have learned to expect the unexpected Of course the 06z was, as expected, another mild run, the op was the mildest at the end [with some support] though some ensemble variation towards the end. think we will have to bide our time for a few days longer to see if any of the variables make their way closer to us. Fair way to go yet

It's a big 'no' for me all round really. Though I agree its better now than it is midwinter to have this tedious weather pattern The only time I have enjoyed any sort of winter mild spell was during that exceptional period in February 1998, where there was some genuinely warm sunshine, in february after long periods of dark winter nights its more appealing other than that I loathe it. Once October 31 has passed, can stay cold all the way to March 1, it never does but be ok with that Not warm enough for T Shirts, not cold enough to feel 'fresh' and bar this November it more often than not brings rain, and even if it doesnt tends to bring murk in wintertime. For me it just feels utterly pointless and boring, though the odd big winter gale can relieve the tedium for a day or two I also dont like the fascination it inspires in television meterologists, who seem to want to revel in the dullest of weather patterns and assume everyone enjoys it. Can totally understand why people dont like the cold [especiall the old and outdoor workers] but mild damp weather outside can lead to leakages, and a humid chill inside badly insulated properties as well. I think the UK winter climate is one of those halfway house ones where people cant seem to keep warm whatever the weather type due to it not being quite cold enough to ensure properly insulated houses and transport which can cope with more than a day of freezing temperatures, not to mention people continuing to build properties on floodplains for me perhaps the ideal would be a winter climate like Beijing. Dry, cold and sunny. Much fresher and healthier [kills the bugs and we wont have the smog here], allows outdoor activities and feels seasonal too. This combined with a touch of Sapporo with occasional semi regular falls of snow for variety. Stuff like this november for example in December and January is about as enjoyable as having your testicles barbecued for me. Some proper cold winters may also encourage/force overdue investment in homes and transport too, as well as concerted action regarding cheaper sources of energy or against profiteering energy companies Note to the media and public forecasters: not everyone thinks its a 'compensation' or a 'plus side' that mild weather is about. Is why as a bloke who grew up in the 90's I developed a deep rooted and visceral hatred of Sian Lloyd on ITV Ahh, enjoyed that!

was the 14th November yesterday when I made that post, 15th today. Am a bit confused really, seeing as December doesnt come in to the high res or even the low res outputs of either the GFS/UKMO or ECM yet, that there are fellas who are being told in no uncertain terms that a change isnt possible The CFS charts do suggest a continuation, but they are at that range hit and miss. They could be right but my feeling is that if they were always correct or at the very least, fairly reliable, the Met office would not have abandoned seasonal forecasting. Were right about december last year, but I seem to remember they showed a strong signal for a cold November for a long time and that hasnt materialised at all for a start Have been some hints of a change in the ensemble and later chart outputs, which have been perhaps a bit more louder in the last day or so than they have been, though I personally dont expect anything notably cold before the month is out. But to write off december I think is ludicrous at this point. The difficulty with places like these is that many people take things only on face value and perhaps overlook that small changes in the short-medium term can cause big changes upstream. The normal reliability rule with models is about T120 as a cut off point normally, with a absolute max of T240 for a default sou' westerly or for a notably stubborn pattern. About 10 days at the very most, which doesnt cover the whole of the rest of this month. After then it's trends only, and for me they have been a bit more mixed lately than they have been

well december hasnt entered the range of the GFS or ECM charts yet so...still a fair bit of time to go, and the odd cold chart has appeared here and there

too early to be sure. Not going to doom-cast as I dont believe in it, can catch people out and make them look daft. Seen it so often in the past where fellas end up writing things off way too early though would reckon on a above average start as being possible. If the high ends up sitting over us it could bring frost and fog though

Last year that did appear to be the case, the year before though was rather different from what i can remember, stuck in a very disturbed mild mobile set up then. Is why i wouldnt have been against that reappearing for a bit to see if we could get another abrupt change [like the late GFS 00z]. At the moment its leaning a bit away from that so maybe we might have to look for something to happen with this European block in a few weeks. May be some cooler surface stuff to begin with. For now though, expect nothing this november is my call

The HP signal over Europe is pretty meh looking for us but these things, as we know from the met in the past, are not oracles in terms of info. Think it was in 2009 when they went for a mild winter in the face of a atlantic dominated November and after that point was about the time they stopped issuing seasonal forecasts publicly. these are probability charts after all on those charts most of the uk is in the yellow medium chance of a milder winter except the far south and west, but off the west coast of Ireland and close to Brittany its the opposite. If there is a build up of HP, will depend where it aligns itself The signals are there but they arent strong except for above normal conditions in the artic and below normal around the azores area if I were to hazard a guess, I would say a 2005-6 kind of winter might be in the offing [fairly blocked, cooler in the south, some frost, not as snowy] but I couldnt swear to it. 2009 we were in a worse position than this year I reckon at this point, guess its hard to tell

His view is that summer ice melt has an influence over winter weather patterns in the north atlantic and promotes winter blocking in that area its one method how those who strongly advocate AGW reconcile themselves/explain the recent tendency for colder winters than normal in this part of the world [a change in tack from the trend which was the creation of a pseudo med climate in the UK/'even larger teapot' guff] it is an interesting theory. May be something in it, who knows dont expect a lot from the 6z eithe rin the short term or in FI, but be interested to see if some patterns seen earlier reemerge in this or later runs. Euro High being stubborn here though

Guess its all relative, having an op run with an intense Greenland high at the end which isnt entirely unsupported at the fag end of the range makes a change. Cant really remember any sort of cold weather appearing in the GFS ops for weeks. personally i prefer that solution to the ECM which resembles in that form a displacement of the Euro bloc further north with less cold air about, though its probably fair to say the ECM on pattern evidence may be a bit more likely. Both are a improvement of kinds mind but at this time, its all way in the future, but it looks slightly less grim seeing those going in to December than a day or two ago. It will probably switch back soon but the key with these things is to see whether they appear in the outputs again in the next few days. if they do then maybe something could be afoot its not 'great' but guess we have to start somewhere

Its more for academic purposes at that range but at least its better than relentless mild all the way through the suite guess December is still 2 weeks away and for me thats the time to look for for when things perhaps might more interesting in terms of colder conditions. Still a long way off in terms of knowing what things will be like but knowing these patterns, would be very suprised so see anything cold before the end of this month. After all, 2009 saw no notable cold before the middle of december, perhaps it could be similar this year too, if it is, can live with this kind of set up for a few weeks more

Tend to agree with that assessment. The output this morning from the overnight runs looks bland again but have been some which have been better thinking generally we will be better off without the Euro high, whatever pattern we get in to now, perhaps 5 years ago would be more pessimistic looking at the output and its not great right now but we have seen changes emerge unexpectedly, so maybe in a few days our luck may change personally I have put back my estimate of cold weather returning to beyond November some time ago, so for me we can start at a zero baseline again

contrast him with Mushymanrob. We know where he stands, he knows hes in a minority, and when the charts play out in his favour he doesnt post smileys all over the place or mislead people or, for that matter, selectively post charts held my tongue for a while as a lurker, but its become too tedious now, almost as boring as the output I like Mushy's style, he doesnt deny charts he doesnt like yet recognises them. This bloke wouldnt be seen for dust can recognise the charts are pretty poor, though thats not a death sentence all the same

Looks a typical zonal run for the time of year, but given the stagnant nature of the Euro high am not that sorry to see it leave the building all the same. If its not going to retrogress, its better just to get shot of the damn thing and start again those interested in windstorms and changeable weather will like this run better as for cold, we wil have to bide our time

In the last few years having southerly tracking lows has been a more common trend than it has been in the past, so maybe a initial zonal reset may not be as unappealing as we think, all things considered. Just have to wait and see really at the moment its a case of making the best of a poor output for us cold lovers, but we were in a position like that a couple of years back which turned out ok, including an eventual white Xmas in northern areas leading eventually to a cold and snowy January. More energy in the southern arm of the jet would help, be looking for that trend in the coming weeks just dont expect any cold before the end of the month, if it does arrive its a bonus for me. Winter doesnt really begin until about mid december most years anyway

Well one thing I can say is that it cant really as far as outputs go be a great deal worse than this in terms of pattern [surface conditions are bearable I suppose in parts] so the only way is up....#bang# 'baybe, for yooo and mee nooowww....' ;-) ahem though I go against wanting a zonal looking set up as it has the potential to stink the place out when established but starting to be so bored of this block that I am starting to feel that a change may be as good as a rest, for a week or two anyway. Not all zonal spells last months. Sick to death of the models this autumn really, they have shown the opposite to what many of us want [as they did during the summer] having said that in past years warm novembers have been followed by colder weather quite quickly [1978, 2009] and almost unexectedly. Hoping not for a 1994 or the abysmal 2006 scenario though. Whilst cold novembers in the late 80's were often followed by utter zonal hell. Still only the 12th of November, lets not forget. But thinking it would be great to see something interesting soon, not just Darren Bett's wet dreams

Gah, output going backwards all the time. Awful huge Euro high. God I hate them Probably time to check out before I lose my rag with the condescension and gloating from the usual suspects Little to see otherwise. Completely out of luck right now. Sian Lloyd must be programming the computers or something. Yuk

Would say the 12z is the warmest run on the ensembles and close to an outlier Dont really see a positive NAO bartletty set up as a big signal. Need to look at the collective. Problem is most only look at the GFS ops and conclude that that is the 99% certain to happen outcome Been a few duff ops but overall think today has been a little better. Some hints of a change and in the meantime some less mild weather in the shorter term. Nothing amazing but some uncertainty emerging for later in the month rather than cast iron certainty Don't expect anything notably cold this month myself but at the same time we aren't half way through it yet so.....