rich1

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2402.png not exactly warm. Cool zonality in evidence in this run with occasional glancing blows from the north not an 'exciting' picture for cold but not a complete bust for northern areas especially goes naff again in the final frames but a bridge to be crossed later. Would not be suprised to see it being the warmest ensemble run again at the very end

I do find it very odd how many people can be cast iron sure of what the weather is going to be like until the new year lately. I have to say... Going by what so many people have been posting lately it would make you think that the Met Office is already providing full monthly outlooks with a 95% accuracy rate. There is a lot of interesting stuff about teleconnective patterns being posted but this Mayan 2012 prophecy on the back of these from elsewhere is becoming a bit of a stuck record. I see them as informative but in the end educated estimates and that there are other forces at work too which affect our weather. Which make predicting beyond 2 or 3 weeks at most a dangerous thing, with accuracy rates falling off a cliff see last summer's summer forecast on here for reference...that one went down like a one legged man doing the hokey cokey. Its perhaps out of our hands and in the lap of the gods as for December, a slightly cooler 2000 is forming in my thoughts but I could very well be wrong. Early zonality not as vigorous or as mild as it was then perhaps but the general pattern could be seen i.e. the atlantic blowing itself out mid month with settled colder conditions following. seen some interesting CFS charts lately on the xmas forecasting page with blocking towards iceland or the faroes. Dont see cold blocks lasting a month this winter but week long cold episodes may form periodically. Maybe we might get luckier later this month. But I dont expect to be right but it doesnt make me wrong yet either

and you have told us all for the 2,753rd time. We get it they should have used a bloody machine gun anyway, these perhaps http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png demonstrate the GFS seems to be developing a mild outlier addiction lately. Next week looks like cool zonality to me. Unsettled. Nothing much out of the ordinary here for early december

My own rule of thumb is: up to 1 week = good idea of what may happen 1-2 weeks = a fair idea of what might happen 2-3 weeks = a vague idea of what could happen beyond that = no idea of what will happen I think thats the Met Office's standard procedure these days for long range forecasting. Teleconnections can also vary and rely on forecasting as the weather does, which may or may not turn out correct. So many forcings. But what I can make out of the output I would guess that this variable weather will probably last a little while, perhaps out to the 2nd week of December. How much it varies is unlear though chillier spells will intersperse with milder spells. After then, well, your guess is as good as mine but sense unscientifically that things may start to look better from that time

Few days off for me, had a quick look see at these http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png mobile and quite chilly at times for the first week of December. People writing off December are again in evidence and its again pretty premature. Probably be better off the further north you are for the first half of the month mind. Overnight ECM was ok. Its always going to take time when we have had such a stubborn set up persist for so long

i agree with you mate on the pattern we have had for November so far. Classic case of wrong blocking, wrong time is greater mobility forecasted and though todays output on the op runs have pursued milder solutions in the later range, 2009 remains fresh in the mind, a ridiculously mild and wet November. In recent years the jet has been more temperamental than it was, so its very hard to be sure on a monthly pattern in a zonal set up. Sure it isnt ideal but think the doom mongering is over the top the Met office packed in seasonal forecasting to the public for a reason, I think 2009 was a wake up call in that you cant label weeks ahead through zonality any more. Could easily see better runs emerging through the week. The Euro high we had was stagnant and persistent, its a bit of a different matter and quite unusual, but there is a change and with change comes unpredictability

20th November............ Way too early. Its like people never learn a thing. Though I do feel it will be a slow burner for December

Mixed bag but lets be honest, we have had 6 weeks of dog-rough charts. A smooth transition was never going to happen There are fellas who are less positive who know more about the upstream patterns but there is a hell of a lot of piggybacking going on, where a hint of an unfavourable pattern or a moderately downbeat yet complex sounding post from a regular all of a sudden then gets magnified in to a GFS 380 chart showing a Euro or Bartlett being seen as a foregone conclusion, with doom and gloom aplenty. Its a bit frustrating. To be honest I reckon most of those making the most noise wouldnt know a teleconnection from a telephone connection! For me its fairly standard fare for the time of year, and its a question of being patient. Do seem to be a lot of mild outliers on the GFS ops today mind ;-)

positioned correctly it can, and if somehow we could get the thing to be a bit further north it may turn in to something rather better. But at this time its an estimate, not as I said a fait accompli. The last chart on the GFS showing it is an outlier as well a cold HP spell around Xmas I would take actually at this point, but my feeling for December echoes with BFTP, I think it will be a bit more variable on the whole. There have been a scatter of scenarios modelled an FI is retreating to an earlier period than in recent weeks, and December is still 10 days away so there is still a lot of time left to run. A december like last year is not likely but that doesnt mean that a sub-average December is by any means impossible still

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png mean 850's lower on this run after the 29th than for the 00z though I prefer to use 24 hour comparisons. Op run the warmest towards the end perhaps the upstream signals are not ideal but it can hardly be called a fait accompli than we will see the 'return of the mac' just yet IMO long term cold blocking is not there and dont expect it to be for a while yet but thats ok for now

Not the 'worst' chart in the world this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png from a record low benchmark in terms of model interest since about mid october anyway. Changeability in the scenarios is to be expected at this point in either direction. Not likely to last on this one however

The reality is when you change patterns from a very mild stagnant one in to a more typical set up with variability, that variability will be on show with the output as well. Some will evolve in to something we like, others may go in a different direction its not going to be a immediate plunge from very mild to very cold. Would expect a mish mash of runs over the next week or so, some may end up looking great, others may look poor. Over the last 6 weeks they have been until recently overwhelmingly poor, at least now there is something different on offer, which the runs have yet to decide upon. FI is retreating in to an earlier period than it was with a stuck pattern so is no real need to panic if we get a few ordinary-looking ops/mild outliers etc like the overnight ECM my thoughts are perhaps for a unstable pattern to be around in early december with a fair degree of changeability, some mild, some cold and feel thats what is being shown, perhaps a little earlier than I envisaged a few days ago so not bothered

Euro high out, average late november-early december weather in. Prepared to wait for sustained cold but those in the north may see some wintry stuff sooner than we imagined a week ago. Scottish ski resorts will be pleased with the pattern change 2009 December style will do me, though this early december wont be nearly as cold as last year, that was an exception ensemble average has dropped from above average until very late on this month to consistent average-chilly conditions. As the output travels later in to December would like to see some further dipping but not expecting the world for the early part of the month. Is likely to be generally unsettled. After then, who knows

While not perfect, the pattern on the ECM late in the run looks to have a decent amount of potential, certainly compared to the dire outputs we have seen this month slow burner this change but the dominos are beginning to fall steadily... keeping it real for now but am quite encouraged by todays developments. If we can get rid of the Euro high, then for me the chances of something better in terms of cold eventually emerging increases over time

If [prays to the heavens] we can get shot of the Euro High, a couple of weeks of blowy variable weather will come as a bit of almost blessed release and it doesnt look to me really like classic raging mild zonality, is potential for a bit of variety there, especially up north so insofar as that is concerned, there is some sign of some unblockage of the blocked pattern we have suffered for weeks on end which continues to be modelled. In this present 'post-modern' era, am more inclined to cross the bridge of long term zonality when and if we indeed come to that. At least we know that the days of switching patterns and cold weather are not necessarily a thing of the past. We have to start somewhere and it looks seasonal just as the new month starts. So am ok with the evolution of potential patterns as they are at this time. Even if we will have to wait for anything particularly long lasting in terms of cold weather. All in good time. Keep expectations reasonable, then perhaps a pleasant suprise may emerge on the GFS ensemble charts, cooler than average uppers have been fairly persistent features in the opening days of next month. Nothing exceptional but a change is as good as a rest there

Not an outlier on temperatures exactly but looks a big one on precipitation, a much drier run than the rest. Does maybe show the patterns leading in to next month arent completely settled yet nothing chilly in the London zone in the reliable apart from perhaps a briefish incursion around the 25th, but then thats completely expected

Be interesting to see the ensemble output, there may be a spread of options but.... christ I would be willing to chip in 50 quid for somebody to shoot some sort of pressure lowering mechanism in to that bloody thing over eastern Europe. Sick to death of it oh well, guess its stil only the 18th November and well over 10 days until the month ends edit: 12z GFS ensembles. A mess http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png least they havent completely given up on cooler weather for the start of next month. Op run is probably the 'flattest' looking one there. Some very wet runs on that

FI is pretty dog toffee on these ones, needless to say I hope that doesnt happen. More mobile in the medium term but would not want the Euro high rebuilding, that would just be close to unbearable better set for northern areas in the short term though, with some chilly episodes. Mind you expect a bit longer in a generally mildish unsettled pattern in the medium term so its not really a suprise

More traditionally mobile spell of weather on its way, which should break the monotony and cant help but feel it is needed to blow the cobwebs of a christ-awful Sceuro high set up away. Thinking an averageish winter overall with a cold January, a cooler second half to december though not exceptionally cold and a warmish february [following on from recent winter trends] was thinking 2005-6 but with the colder weather in January rather than february. Not as snowy as the last 2. Maybe a hybrid between that and a 2008-9 winter. Some hints of some strat warming coming in in time for January as others have mentioned though those are only one part of the jigsaw have not given up hope on a 2009-10 winter mind you, given the propensity for zonal spells to evolve in to more positive directions in time than they did in the past. What I dont see is a 2010-11 repeat, which is a shame as I wont be in Britain after mid january. Last winter was ideal for me, as the cold stayed until I went abroad again and it was a cracking december, and thats why a cold xmas-new year 2 week period would suit me just fine, even if the rest of the winter was nondescript. Though I do feel January will offer some interest throughout

from a personal perspective, given the trends of recent winters, overall I reckon there is more likelyhood in time of lows tracking, eventually, further south than a stuck Euro high moving north so I reckon for some of us, for those who liked cold and for those who like normal weather, think this present pattern which has been floating around for ages needs breaking, because its little more than a nuisance. If that means a bit of mobility for a couple of weeks then so be it could all come back again but at least you want the chance and a bit of variety rather than just watching the same pattern appearing day after day...after day. Long way to go before anything lasting in terms of cold weather is concerned but under the Euro regime it really was a case of bob hope or no hope. Pre 2008 these patterns might look more ominous but since then events have proved they dont have to be seen that way. The Euro high though, its just a nuisance out of season and needs to be exterminated. Insofar that is concerned, am myself relatively happy with the output for now. Entirely normal for late november/early december unlike what has been going on recently

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Unsettled, cooling off as we enter December. Reckon higher ground in the north might see some interesting conditions with these op run not an outlier but warmish towards the death does look like the Euro high should be off the scene hopefully and some more normal late november weather might be in the offing

Zonality doesnt really bring cold as such, is true, except the cold variety which does to northern parts but in recent years it has not been as stubborn generally as blocking highs to the south east when they have emerged. Its all ifs, buts and maybes but looking at the last few years, increased mobility over time, with patience, may help us out later on through December if the jet decides to play ball certainly dont expect December to be as cold as last year, be amazed if it was but a 2009 scenario is also still possible at this stage. Was very zonal for november and early december but after that it switched. Feel there is still a fair bit to play for in the meantime, for those who like a bit of seasonality as opposed to stagnation, its a step forward. The last few weeks have been like watching paint dry

Euro highs are in late autumn about as fun as kidney failure for cold watchers like myself but hopefully it will take a powder soon my bones of contention are 1. People writing off a whole month before it has started, saw that as far back as the 12th of November for the month of December...jesus 2. these bloody things after another crappy Euro-high dominated chart, gloating when having a minority view does not make you popular 3. The conditions we have experienced this novemer in the UK. Pretty awful only redeemed by not too much rain. Dont mind the odd indian summer type warm couple of days in November but a whole month is way too much of a 'good' thing.

I am of the view that certain patterns have been more likely to eventually reach a colder outome than they have been in the past, for example forms of zonality with the jet having shown the inclination to track more south than north in the last few years. The Euro high on the other hand just brings a long and painful headache and hopefully we can v-sign it goodbye for at least a time, hopefully not to return. My own stance has been for the last week or so to look towards the end of the month and early december for the pattern to break up and there does seem to be growing support for that scenario. Its gradual and wont bring persistent cold for a while but its a necessary starting point because we are going nowhere with this present pattern. Have had excema which has been more enjoyable than looking at the charts since october

Out in FI but a few days before the month ends in 10 days time, ECM appears to chase the Euro high away using a big stick with a nail on the end with a ridge forming in the west atlantic http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4713/ECM1-240_ezy6.GIF guess its up in the air after that point. Would not be sorry to see it go if it does indeed leave us, though remains to be seen what happens after then