rich1

Can we please use the term 'surface cold' rather than 'faux cold?'. It is still cold for gods sake, just not up high. I find that term almost as insufferably annoying as some bloke called G and ending with D other than that, well, nothing out of the ordinary on the charts, looks locked in for a couple of weeks. But beyond that, do think people are doom mongering too much. Wait and see some short term charts havent been quite as dire as progged though its all relative

Yup. Same nonsense going on over on TWO. I have more sympathy for the likes of Mushymanrob's point of view, doesnt hide his preferences but he works outdoors and doesnt go OTT when his preferred options are on the table. This kind of thing, am getting bored of it now and it becomes harder to hold your tongue be interesting to see what happens when a pattern change does come about, the phrase 'wont be seen for dust' comes to mind. But I agree with the consensus that we will probably have to endure this set up for most of the rest of the month as a starter. After that, well its just a educated guess, a very warm spring fooled a lot of good forecasters in to expecting similar summer patterns, though I guess things went a bit on the turn in May. lot can happen in a fairly short time, as we know, but would be nice if we could see some consistent evidence of some kind of shift in the next couple of weeks, there are hints on some runs but thats it at the moment. Not a big shock in a stubborn set up like this

This is a weather forum, not a 'I cant pay my gas bill' forum like it or not, the majority tend to prefer more seasonal outputs so jumping for joy is almost like a Man United fan going on a Liverpool fans forum to say how good Rooney is. though actually in the short-medium term, the charts were worse not so long ago but it does look a while away any major change, but in 2009 the charts were filling people with despondency then too so wouldnt take too much as read just yet. Things can change. Time will tell, it always does

Its the 10th of november btw, its just a bit early for this kind of funereal doomsday stuff Agree with most that barring something unusual happening November will work out above average but after that, its open to debate. Its not zonal either at this time, that is more problematic as it just pushes everything through to Russia have been hints of a change on some of the outputs in varying forms today, while others keep things fairly blocked

Hes a modern day stick waving medicine man with the slippery cunning of a lighthouse rat in my view. Piers 'the Chameleon' Corbyn I call him, who can get caught in a nest of vipers and come out somehow wearing snakeskin shoes, who somehow keeps his following even when making some crazily inaccurate predictions [and a handful of accurate ones] but if people are fool enough to pay him money for his forecasts, then thats their own lookout, but, and I keep saying this, I wish to god all these newspapers stopped taking his words seriously. Drives me crazy, but in its own way it just emphasises the almost complete ignorance of Joe Public regarding weather/climate etc, and the journalists who report it. A rent a quote self publicist is a godsend to a journalist approaching a 5pm deadline when you are sitting there at 4pm with writers block. i work in the media industry, I know what it can be like, and often you end up writing about stuff you know zero about in a tight timescale But though I have little time for the bloke [hes obviously a enthusiast, I just get annoyed at his delusion and his slipperiness when confronted], I nonetheless would like him to be right this time, in a sort of 'stopped clock is right twice a day' style. Never know, he could be, but he could also be jumping on the publicity bandwagon once again

This is one of those runs where you expect nothing and get marginally better surface conditions in the medium term reckon we will have to wait a few days for these constipated outputs to show any significant hints of consistent movement from the pattern. Is entirely expected mind you the European HP does seem to decay in the FI stage, though its for academic value at this point

It can do, you are right, but this is one of those rare yet irritating patterns which gets stuck. Mind you this high has been meandering around since September or so in one form or another, it will have to bogger off eventually at the same time, this time 2 years ago people were gloomily facing up to the prospect of a zonal winter as we endured a relentlessly mild and very wet November, saying the signs were rather naff but the reality was rather different in the end things though can change from day to day. Maybe in 2 days we might be shown a way out when all seems bleak now. The darkest hour before dawn is often the way things go in model watching but my thoughts are that this will be in place for most of the month probably. But if conditions do change, we may end up being better placed for a almost sudden shift to cold than it would be under a raging zonality set up. But couldnt really say when that will happen, like I said I feel much of, if not all of this november is looking like being consigned to the dustbin for this year, but that doesnt condemn december or the rest of winter to a similar fate

i'd rather not, I wont be here then autumn/winter 1990 was pretty boring but there was some snow at the start of the 2nd week in december, I think John Motson was pictured in it in Wycombe or somewhere would be less boring if the high could build more over us and up the chances of fog and frost. Better than nothing as a holding pattern I suppose until the upstream signals shift this dirge. This though is pretty, well, toss, lots of cloud, drizzle and dank, dull days with it getting dark after 2.30. Meh but I hope that this doesnt last that long. Would have more joy watching the new coat of paint dry on my bedroom wall for a month. There have been a few runs in the last couple of days that have suggested something a little different and hopefully they will emerge again, but they havent been able to be consistently strung together. Not yet anyway wonder if Steve will appear today, give us some light but I wouldnt be that suprised if he didnt appear for a little while. At the moment you cant polish a turd. But will always think this situation can change, just hope its not, like, January, before it does. Had it been 2004-5-6-7 though I would be thinking we may be out of luck again this year, but the last few years give me a bit more optimism that even dire patterns can be broken unexpectedly but I do think that, awful as this stalemate is, it maybe can be broken more favourably in the right circumstances than a roaring jet barreling warm temperatures almost in to Siberia

Theme still fairly consistent, a warm week followed by an incremental, painstaking cool down back to averageish. Is about as interesting as watching England play football not expecting any changes to the modelled pattern this week except small variations, its a very boring one but if things improve in to December I for one wont care all that much its not quite as bad as the standard winter pattern we have had in byegone years, which sets up in November and carries on with very few interruptions in to march, the upstream conditions can shift these blocks sooner or later and recent years propensity to winter northern blocking makes me feel this can happen again in a few weeks. Its just this year we have November as a indian summer month rather than the winter month it was last year. Its an autumn month at the end of the day, so I never expect lots of cold, but these blocks are indeed tiresome viewing and require a lot of lip biting when watching TV forecasts right now

Hmm...fee fi fo fum....or who's that trip trapping across my bridge? ;-) but it does look very dull viewing right now, have to say, but not that unexpected at this time. Only real positive is that at least it isnt that wet on those. Having these charts for the christmas period would be about as much fun and as seasonal as a kidney infection. As it is, my hopes for this month are not that high but it cant last forever were a few charts that suggested a change on earlier runs, I hope they re-emerge, things can change and they have done before. Actually the cold can wait until december for me, as it did in 2009 where the pattern in november was worse, with an active atlantic and incessant rain my advice is probably come back in a few days, maybe a week, and maybe it will look more interesting. In the summer these would be fab but right now they are pretty, well, flab cant see the fascination with mid teen temps at any time of year to be honest though. Though maybe the air will turn cooler over time, but anything exciting looks a distance away

Slow decay of this present pattern and a gradual falling off of the warm temperatures as the month goes on I still think the overall picture in the coming weeks is a fair bit away from the norm, which is the deaded greenland vortex, the belts of HP to the south and depressions travelling west to east. That isnt what we are seeing all depends on where the blocks end up. Some hints they will move north, which is where we want them though I dont envisage much action before the last week of the month or so. its a case of biding your time at the moment

Some curious charts on show at the moment, very unusual really for the time of year with a lot of High pressure around surface temperatures are likely to fall after mid month though I reckon, and it looks pretty dry for quite a few areas. This November could be a odd month, its usually a lot more disturbed than this

Is true for me the interesting thing is the Atlantic activity not being all that...well, active really. its just at the moment the blocking is in the wrong place. There isnt the 90's type lows tracking across us and in to Russia type of set up. The LP's are not getting all that far against the block there. If the signal towards height rises to the north intensifies then that will pay off eventually. Wont be anytime soon but worth keeping watch nonetheless may be a combination as you say of a mixture of very cold weather in recent winters raising expectations perhaps combined by a feeling that a 4th coldish winter on the bounce isnt seen as statistically probable which may be in part pointing to a lack of any real interest or enthusiasm right now. That and a long spell of mostly above average and relatively nondescript weather dominating this autumn One thing we have learned in recent years is to not rule out anything and the form horses have changed track, but would say at this time that its all speculation right now and in the medium timeframe its generally mild and relatively uneventful unless you are looking for the odd unusually warm early November day when the sun pops out

on the 12z this is progged in about 2 weeks time http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-300.png?0 just for fun at that stage but some food for thought. Its not that cold yet but on that run it does point to a repositioning of the block in a much better place in the longer run. Until it appears in the High Res though it remains out of the reliable, but a few more runs of this sort of evolution could spark up some interest later on. Worth keeping half an eye on

From what i can gather that Euroblock has been around for a while now, its not as though its just arrived here yesterday as such would nevertheless be pretty suprised if this November was anything but above average now though i do remember similar pessimism back in 2009. That November was grim, endlessly wet and well above average which lasted for the first part of December, and even the cold lovers were prophesising that to continue indefinitely and arguing the signs suggested that A European block with a somewhat sluggish Atlantic though i maintain is not as bad as a raging positive NAO set up which was more a feature of the 90's autumns. This isnt quite the same. It wont be going anywhere quickly but would say wait a few weeks before writing a whole forthcoming season off. It hasnt started yet, though all the same would like to see some more coherent signs of a change appear. Sometimes though, they can appear almost out of the blue, in my experience of this place and in the last few years anyway

The pattern is a bit stuck presently though actually after today its above normal in many places but not exceptionally so, from checking the bbc temps and the daytime charted temps it seems to vary between 6-10 in central northern scotland and 11-14 or so in the south. 11-12 is about average for the time of year. Down south this is offset a bit with milder nights being a persistent feature though in the north there is the potential for some frost in northern hillier regions to begin with. Its not quite 1994 territory at the moment however though certainly it looks again to be a mild first half to the month do think its better if we have to have this, to have it now and not in December. Depending on the track of the HP out east, a southerly wind for a while has a bit more chance to in time mutate in to something more favourable than say a 1998 style rampant Southwesterly. That chart from 26 December 1998 which can be found posted and in the History forums and i think on the winter threads is the type which is worse than we have now because that can stay for months on end when the Atlantic is super fired up [a record El nino that year]. Compared to that its relatively benign in the atlantic area and actually has been for a while, one thing I remember a lot from my youth in the 90's especially is the isobar charts on the atlantic being noticeably tight with a roaring jet and a continuous HP belt stretching from Florida across the Atlantic and right through Southern Europe with the UK being ravaged for weeks by violent windstorms and deep depressions. Seemed to happen a lot less frequently these days than it does now, and it really isnt in evidence at this time. Hopefully that trend wont be bucked and come later in the month things reposition themselves better

Have learned to be wary of the term 'pattern reset' as its a favourite term of what I prefer to know as the 'faux cold' snobs, but in this instance, apart from a Bartlett High which just edges out this for the potential of incessant atlantic rain, this is just about the worst pattern out there for cold late autumn/winter weather and a reset is what is needed. Good in summer, useless now. The Euro high is a good for nothing nuisance and this is a stubborn one. it will go in the end and are some charts which hint at that happening albeit in the land of nod/later in the month as the jet pushes a bit further south and threatens to boot the HP in to touch

Mild ramping all over the shop right now on all the weather forums and cheers of delight ringing across the Met Office bods doing the tv forecasts. Sian Lloyd must be dancing with joy right now but these sorts of charts sadly tend to promote it. I despise Euro highs with a heartfelt passion as they get 'stuck'. I wouldnt bother looking for anything for a couple of weeks having said that, these things can and do change. 2009 and the start of november 2010 were, for wont of a better word, cack except for those who love floods, warm temperatures or rain. if its going to be mild, these patterns wont promote days of incessant rain everywhere, so guess it could be worse Living outside britain, my window for cold is between mid december and january 9 when I am back on holiday, least you fellas have more time than I do to wait but its a boring outlook for most of this month presently. Some rain may penetrate from the west, while the east stays largely dry and not much frost, fog or anything exciting. But it will/should improve, just need something upstream to give this pattern a kick. Better now than say December 1 for these charts I suppose

Journalists are famously ignorant about the weather and Positive Weather Solutions are a touch 'fly by night' and are/will be seeking more hits on their webpages so dont take it as concrete but I still feel its a possibility, the cold air will never be too far away, and the Met Office seem quite keen for the spell to linger

' These types of things never cease to get on my nerves...I have a low tolerance for general ignorance personally, and the only thing that competes with this type of thing is those asking repeatedly 'will it snow in Eastern Ireland' again and again and again . Suffice it is to say that that chart is firstly over 2 weeks away and secondly it is an outlying run on the ensemble charts at the end, thirdly its only one chart out of a number of different model runs, fourthly the Met o update is pretty set on it remaining cold up to the new year and maybe beyond, and fifthly the progged 'breakdown' which pops up now and then recently seems to be something that is getting shoved back each day it could happen but I feel this year we have a better than average shout of a white Christmas in a number of places looking at the evolving chart patterns

From the outside looking in, this spell looks amazing really. A bit like our november climate might be with no north Atlantic Drift or something. Payback time for all that disgusting mildness forcasted with such undisguised glee by Sian Lloyd throughout the 90's gives hope for future winters this, and you can now believe cold spells when they are modelled and predicted

Heavy wet snow here since about 11am, and flakes getting bigger and intensifying done pretty well out of this, 2-3cm cover so far

ECM shows a different solution to next week, it could be right but... I tend to find that the models are rarely in overwhelming agreement unless there is a zonal period underway or overwhelmingly likely to get underway. I think we can point to a number of duff operationals in the build up to all the cold spells we have had so far this winter. They have never been all that keen at modelling a cold spell in a uniform fashion the form horse this winter has been cold weather, it could b a winter where milder runs for once get viewed with suspicion more than they may do in normal circumstances there is still plenty of support elsewhere for a period of colder weather from a continental source for next week at this moment in time, unless over the next couple of days we see a swing away, it is very possible this could be a rogue evolution, we had one of them from a 12z op run by the ECM the other week which would have had us under milder weather a lot sooner than has actually been the case ECM is a good model but it is not perfect, bear it in mind, it is possible but it could very well be wrong

best winter I can remember for me, am 28 maybe if the surface temperatures stay chilly and we get a bit of clearance of the cloud overnight and not too much rain at the weekend, there is a chance that some of my existing deep snowcover could hang on till the next colder spell should it occur 13 days in a row and counting with evidence of snow on the ground, is quite incredible considering those 2 shockers we had before last winter

Colder evolution than the 12z, seems to be following one of the colder runs on that last ensemble suite trend has been there on a few runs, more particularly some of the ECM ones over the last day or so