rich1

You are not a believer in cold zonality though, thats common knowledge. But though you could be right, you have been proved wrong before and quite recently on another theory so I wouldnt be too confident if I were you. I dont see widespread wintry weather but I also dont see traditional mild zonality either. Hasnt been that way this week and its not really on show in the reliable timeframe either

Cold and wet looking to my eye. Is still that tendency for lows to be quite far south which means nothing too mild for too long except maybe on the fag end of the 00z GFS. Which is way too far out to be worried about Have been some variation in solutions towards the xmas period on previous runs, hopefully not the 00z one mind, but for the next 10 days or so anyway it can be described as unsettled, perhaps even downright stormy

Hmm http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1862.png looks like a low tracking along the channel to me. A different evolution...

Jet a bit further south and its quite parky looking for the north. Could be wild in the Highlands next week

One thing I do hope there wont be is a storm system over the UK on the 16-17th. Dont want to be stuck for days in another foreign airport again. Be watching things closely over the coming days

Except in workplaces. Some of the bosses probably went to a school like mine :smilz38: during my working life have been allowed to go home early on a couple of occasions due to poor weather but guess money talks and only a powercut would eventually force many money making institutions to close. I have been working out in Thailand last year and I had to come in when Bangkok was under siege by roaming gangs of nutters setting fire to buildings and firing pistols [though they quickly admitted their folly and sent us home after an hour] wouldnt be that suprised looking at the charts and the videos if most make plans to slope off early before too long though admittedly. Is what I would do as I dont drive, have to admit

I remember, and I still went to school dodging trees that if they werent already fallen were about to and fallen power lines. Times were hard and spinster headmistresses were also hard as nails when I was a lad #nostalgic sigh# but perhaps they are right this time round, certainly parts of Scotland are very exposed and with some structural damage already it is probably seen as better safe than sorry

On this particular occasion, will concede that in some exposed areas it perhaps will be necessary this time round. I just remember one time where they closed the schools in parts of the country in anticipation of a snowfall that never arrived and have been several episodes where it looks a bit over cautious i do remember walking about a mile and a half to my school in the morning of that october 87 event as the road was completely blocked by trees. those who didnt arrive were not excused by that tyrant. Guess things are different now

Have to ask, why are schools closing in advance these days? is it a consequence of years living under this lefty compensation culture or something? Back in 87 I was forced to go to school even in temperstures approaching -10 degrees in January and also throughout the 87 storm event in October, schools being closed under 'Mrs Trunchbull' at Busbridge C of E? No chance... mind you it does look a bit lively up there, hopefully everyone ends up safe. Been a while since we have seen winter gales like these

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png run up to Xmas eve not supported yet alas, which is no major shock but all in good time. Lots to get through 850's on parts of this run not as mild as I expected in all honesty, though not a huge amount to write home about on those, I will continue to hope

Ian could end up being right but if anything though its just for fun at that range, at least it shows that you can never write something like that off at this range as a total impossibility, at least its there as a modelled option even if it may go away on the next run, it could return later. Wonder though if this run could be both a mild and a cold outlier at the same time for different stages. Hopefully just the former but it would be a bit of a bi-polar episode in some ways from the GFS

http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0 may eke out a white xmas for some areas, preceded by a week of mediocrity if this verified. But if we did happen to get the end result, it may be worthwhile on the whole though, I hope we get better output than this. Will look at the ensembles to see where this one sits, but given the mobility, going to have to expect some crap runs for cold weather here and there

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0 Doesnt quite happen on this run but if we are to look for a way out of this present atlantic/cool zonal period it may be more likely to happen from the east rather than Greenland have been a few rogue ensembles on recent GFS outputs that have flirted with the idea, but only really flirted. Nothing concrete as of yet. Maybe something might turn up though wouldnt be betting my 50p life savings on it at the moment at present it does seem that the further north you are, the more interesting the weather may be in the next week to 10 days, though the potential for some disturbed weather everywhere is very much in evidence

Doesnt look all that different from the chart shown for the 15th a week ago as I said curious really... out until the end of the reliable, the further north you go, the wintrier the picture looks

I last looked at the models nearly a week ago and this seems to be a week further back not against HP in december on principle depending on where its situated as it can give fog and frost, but I think it keeps getting pushed further back in the output in general

Cold zonality, a form that people thought was extinct not 'great' for the south [though not nearly as bad as it could be] but am spending Xmas in Scotland this year so am happy enough with the overall output

Not that warm mind http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1862.png may be potential for some inversion type weather towards mid december and is hinted at in some of the met updates. Not deep cold but I am not a faux cold snob myself so think it could be worse than the last chart on the sequence as it seems to be moving north a bit...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png definitely colder than yesterdays and little in the way of sustained mild weather on offer. Maybe we really could be in an era when even fairly duff upstream patterns can still produce chilly or cold conditions after all in the winter months. Could be a lot worse, would expect the mean to be more above average than below but seemingly not here anyway

It is [i interpret it as thus, the definition can be unspecific] an intense and self sustaining High pressure cell centred roughly over Iberia that often doesnt go anywhere for months. keeps the south dry and very mild, north mild and wet with southwesterlies riding over the top. Thankfully not a pattern on the output right at this time. The winter killer aka February 1998 or Winter 1988-89/1989-90 This looks sort of December 1999 ish, which was a cold december up norf, with a cold NW flow pattern. Have to say, not seen too many polar lows with these set ups, though this one does have an uncommon cold zonal look. Hilly areas do well from these

Reckon that HP in FI would be mild to start with but centered further north for a few days would turn chillier with frost and fog becoming more apparent. Whilst not deep cold its not a terrible or an implausible scenario. A traditional winter anticyclone seen a few LRF's with that being a feature around the middle-back end of the month, though its one of several scenarios at that range. Next best thing to snow at Christmas would be an intense one of these things plonked over the centre-north of the uk with sunshine and frosty nights. Too far south it becomes extended mediocrity but should it push further north the end result may become more palatable Looks like a normalish december is a possibility, stormy disturbed weather for 10-14 days followed by a drier period is possible [not definite but possible]. After then, we will see. But its not a decided scenario at that range all the same

Considering the upstream patterns being what they are, a cold looking run for the hi res Preferable to Euro high guff any day of the week IMO

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png not a cold chart but the capacity is there. A bit of fun from GEM too, with a cheeky channel low for the 8th with some evidence of some blocking over Greenland http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rgem2401.gif fairly unlikely maybe but do feel that December, while not really a patch on last year, wont be as mind numbing as November was anyway. The 0z op was a coldish run for next week. Some signs of life I reckon, could be worse. seen some variability between zonal, cool zonal, some inversion cold and one or two colder scenarios popping up from time to time in the last day or two

Looks wild and wooly on the ECM tonight. Good for storm enthusiasts More interesting than a Euro high anyway. At least its weather

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png cool zonal may not be too bad for northern areas for the start of december, particularly if you have some elevation.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png unsettled, alternating between average, above average and chilly. Mean shows standard zonality/cool zonality wouldnt mind the yellow run but looks mobile for the next few weeks. Not brilliant but as I have to fly in to Europe on the 15th, I dont really fancy another 4 days of my holiday stuck in a freezing airport in Germany again. It can all wait till after that for me. Would like to see some better upstream signals though, have to say, but they can change