Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posts posted by Grimsby Snow Lover
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GFS Pub run is regrettably zonal right throughout with the odd Polar maritime air mass providing a little wintriness to Northern areas.No sign of any HLB.
Perhaps not but the polar vortex is a hell of a lot weaker towards the end compared with the previous run. Baby steps perhaps?
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Can't post a chart, but the polar vortex is very weak come the later stages of the Gfs run. When viewing the height anomaly charts it was a pleasing sight to see the red colours over Greenland too. Quiet a change from the previous run. Let's hope that this is only the start of the trop response to the strat warming.
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Nice bit of lamp post watching earlier as a heavy shower produced wet sleety snow flakes lol. Clearing up now and the temperature has fallen sharply. Looking at the radar I think most of the showers over the North sea are dying out.
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Well pigged off with this situation, when 1st f/cast it looked awesome, deep Low in Nth Sea by Saturday, big waves, Arctic air coming down bringing snow for east coast...always the same...unless i am somewhere else...then it snows...i think the weather has something against me...heading for a snowless 2014 me thinks...
I share your disappointment mate, it seems like ages since I've seen snow on the ground. For what ever reason eastern areas have been on the wrong side of marginal this time. Fingers crossed for next time.myou guys in the west enjoy your snow ( try not to rub it in too much)
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Still rain here...!!
It would seem we are the wrong side of marginal this time, one of the downsides of living near a relatively warm North sea. Here's hoping we are luckier next time, when ever that may be.
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I'm throwing in the towel tonight for snow in these parts. The temperature and dew point seem to be rising not declining. Why is this? The sleety rain is very heavy so I was hoping for evaporation cooling.
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Only rain here north of the Humber, looks like the snow will stay south of us...great...wish i lived more than 5m asl...
Here's hoping we get our turn when/if we get an easterly later on this winter. Leeds area is getting a decent covering going by reports on here.
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Sadly just heavy sleet here in Grimsby, I can't honestly see us having snow this time around. Further west looks great. Must admit I'm pretty jealous.
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Not sure what the chances of snow over here in n.e lincs. would be great to see some snow on the ground again.
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Can you get snowfall with uppers above 0 but solid surface cold in place?
My understanding is there will need to be many favourable factors needled to be in place for snow to occur, but uppers usually need to be below 0 with negative dew points unless the rate of precipitation is heavy enough to cause evaporation cooling. I think snow grains might be the best bet but obviously cloud and moisture would be needed for that. I might be wrong of course.
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Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice
ENSO + MJO 500H analogs that best match current State. Hello western North American ridge. GOA trough still there pic.twitter.com/Kg49kxCDrI
Hi knocker, what exactly does this mean for the Uk? Sorry I dont understand the jargon. Thanks GSL
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Just for info: UKMO have modified 12z GM (versus raw/unmodified output seen on public websites) to make ridging more prominent out towards E/SE towards T+132, preferring the GFS 12z solution into that timeframe (and equally preferring as signalled in earlier UKMO-GM run).
What exactly does that mean? I'm still learning all the technical jargon. Thanks
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Just a quick question. Is the parallel run same, better or worse than the gfs operational?
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Pleased you have also spotted that, I just thought I had misread those 850 charts.I've looked at this about 3 times now, if anything the colder uppers are making more inroads into the east?? the T+126 shows -8 uppers into the North East of England, South East Scotland. the T+ 138 charts shows -8 uppers from Humberside down to Kent.
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That's my concern, way too early to tell but we need to hope that the north sea doesn't moderate the cold uppers too much. Places further inland shouldn't have the same issue as folk near the coast though.Living on the east coast as i do in norfolk, cold from the east never really delivers in the way of snow(i know it seems daft) but here allways the best falls come from the west as cold meets mild?,
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snow over hills is always a safer bet than low level snow at the range the models are currently showing. Remember for low level snow we need dew points, 850's, 528 dam, isotherm etc all to say yes. Getting these more favourable over hillier areas are more straight forward.Steve, you're 100% my favourite poster here, but Paul Hudson's message is surely worthy of discussion. Ie why does he think snow mainly over the hills? What does he see in the output that we don't? Or vice versa?Edit: Chiono's post noted ;-)
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The overall trend looks fine to me peeps, having eye candy charts like the UKMO 144 chart are great but whilst they 5/6 days away the overall detail will surely change.UPPERS OK AT 144HRS
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Put it this way, December 2010 was a very cold and snowy month followed by two winter months of mild dross and we all loved that winter, so personally I would take a cold month with snowy spells to end winter (even half as good as December 2010 would do me). Things do seem to be supporting a pattern change in around 10 days time if the ECM/GFS are to believed.ECM 240 looking loaded!!! Hopefully the latter third of winter might actually decide to deliver??? here's hoping.
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I know you will already know this Gavin, but for those that don't know the colder uppers are often found in eastern Europe in winter, this is the norm. Things look a darn sign cooler though for western Europe than they do now if those charts were to verify.High pressure moving closer at t144
Coldest air remains in eastern europe
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...including the control for the bulk of the run.Was always going to be on the cold side,although not without limited support.
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Please excuse me for sounding dumb, but are you referring to what's happening with the stratosphere? Thanks GSLOf course with all the outputs we have seen since the overnight runs it is unlikely that the Scandinavian high will suddenly develop an urge to visit W.Europe this time around.I think the interest will be if the ever weakening Atlantic flow will allow another high to build north around our part of the hemisphere.ECM T240 gives hints of one but that Canadian vortex is still too influencial on this run.The unknown factor is how much more amplification we may get to the weaker jet later on as the wave breaking into the vortex continues.
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Please explain why the tripole in the mid Atlantic is important? ThanksI don't know whether it is strictly for this thread, so please move to the winter thread if you like, but the latest SST anomaly chart should provide some interest here. It appears to me that the tripole in the mid Atlantic is growing.
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Have things on the models started to back things further west Tim? I have a short memory and can't remember what the charts looked like 24/48 hrs ago, thanks GSLIf only the jet would do its dive south a few hundred miles further west..we could be in business then. Let's hope these changes west continue in future runs!
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Hi Ian, what does 'high Shannon Entropy' mean? ThanksNW/WNW/N flow towards end of run with low heights to north. Average temps in anomalies. But given high Shannon Entropy even by end next week, very low confidence second half Jan. MOGREPS call to spike any cold chance next week appears to have been well-founded... it was the only model keen on mobile, less cold outcome.
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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
I can't honestly remember the last time we have had a northerly in winter. Would certainly be a welcome change if that verified.