Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posts posted by Grimsby Snow Lover
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That may true for inland areas but coastal counties would struggle for snow under -2c uppers.-6c uppers are not required for snow if there is an easterly feed. -2c should do the trick. ECM looks good to me with -4c uppers and the low slipping under
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I would love to see the Control run on the ECM Nick!!The ECM operational run for De Bilt is a mild outlier for that region from next Tuesday!
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Quite a steep dive in the AO ens this evening as we head further through January.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The NAO still looks like remaining around neutral to possibly positive for the foreseeable future.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Agreed!!! How does the GEM do in terms of accuracy at that range?the gem is a thing of beauty
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Don't know about anyone else but I'm really missing discussing the snow and cold on the regional threads as this was one of the highlights of a Netweather winter. I really hope the ECM and other models follow through with their cold weather promise in around two weeks time.
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OK let draw a line in the sand & move on. All posts & types welcomed whatever level.....
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Cold on here usually means 850 temperatures below -5 (the closer to -10 uppers the better) and 2m temperatures at 3 degrees or below with ice days being the holy grail.Can you clarify on the GFS a bit? Just curious, as I have previously mentioned that the definition of cold here is an interesting one. When you say unlikely to bring "cold", does that mean it will keep temps where they are going to be early to mid week? Average CET? Slightly below average?
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For what its worth the NAO forecasts looks like heading very slightly negative over the next week or so.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
Whilst the AO looks like it go either strongly negative or strongly positive.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
I guess the sheer spread shown in the AO ens could suggest a pattern change over the pole is likely.
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A bit of an old wives tale really unfortunately. If any weather was to affect us from the US it would be in the form of wind and rain, any real cold for us usually comes from the North or East during winter months.Hi all, forgive my total lack of knowledge here, but just wondering about the Ice storm hitting NY and Canada. What is the possibility of that weather coming our way - even as more rain? Doesn't it often follow that what they get we get a week later - or is that an old wives tale?? Many thanks, Woody
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Not from that chart, but quite possibly from the latter end of the run. Something seems to be brewing though doesn't it.Cold incoming from the East maybe!!!
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When you say 'Not much of a vortex' what do you mean? I thought those purple colours indicate a strong vortex. I'm asking because I would like to know what to look for. Many thanks GSLFI on the 12z will be good I think, not much of a vortex, low heading SE, on a negative tilt...
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To be fair to weatheronline their December forecast issued at the end of October was pretty bang on. So hopefully you could be right.If ECM plays out like the 12z then the Weatheronline forecast issued a week ago may be bang on http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131227
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Where did you hear this? Does this give some support to the ECM 12z operational? Thanks GSLBBC signalling the major low due to anchor itself over mid north atlantic is going to be a slower creature than first predicted - taking longer to hit our shores allowing any height development to the north of scandi to get a greater foothold- trough disruption and an undercut situation could easily verify come mid week. The reason for the divergences between GFS and UKMO/ECM is because of this feature and its predicted movement. This is quite an exciting time model watching - far from clear cut.
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I was thinking the same thing!! That would be a very cold NE wind wouldn't it.My impression of the 18z Gfs so far is that it looks a lot more exciting for prospects of eventual cold if you run it backwards!
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...hope indeed that nobody gets killed or injured when the next batch of storms arrive later tonight. Here on the East coast we are still rebuilding sea defences from the severity of the weather.oh damn ian that update is like a knife to the heart!!never mind we can only hope!!
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This looks very similar to how the 6Z GFS run finished this morningAn interesting chart at 240 hours on the ECM. Still way earlier than I am expecting any significant cold to appear in the output, but interesting nonetheless. The vortex over Western Greenland and Eastern Canada is strong here, which is why a warming would be welcome. I'd be interested to know what all of you make of this chart
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131229/06/384/h500slp.png
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The AO is still forecast to go negative after in the new year, although the NAO looks to remain positive for the near future.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Is this chart a positive one if a route towards cold in the UK is going to happen? The reason I ask is because the lows seem angled at a SE direction
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Its a long time since I've seen the AO forecast to go this negative in a long time, we just need this to materialise and help weaken the PV significantly enough to allow blocking to develop to the north of us (I know this is no guarantee for cold snow for us though).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The NAO looks like staying neutral to slightly positive for a while longer, in which case we will struggle to get the Atlantic blocked.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Forgive me if I am reading them wrong but they don't look that different considering there are over 51 runs averaged out.Once again the ECM Op run is another outlier at the end
Op
Ensemble
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So true, but Feb 1991 was a thing of beauty.Eurgghhh I'm all for heights building but can't say I'm too enamoured at height rises to our NE, more often than we not just miss the cold pool, just look at Feb 2012 as an example.
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Not the worse chart I have seen from the ECM. We are not far from an easterly here with quite a strong Scandi high that could prove difficult to shift.
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Thats probably the best ECM chart of the winter so farIf you reckon this is square one..http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131225/12/npsh500.240.pngthen is suggest you learn how to read weather charts.
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Following on from a pretty pleasing GFS 12Z run (if colds your thing) the latest AO forecast looks good to me with most members going negative.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The NAO could go either way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif.
Merry Christmas everyone.
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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Does anyone know what the updated ec32 run suggested this morning?