Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posts posted by Grimsby Snow Lover
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The GFS 0Z ensembles caught my eye this morning. The fact that the London ens in FI have colder 850s than the Manchester ens suggests to me a continental feed could occur as we head into the first few weeks of January. I know there is little showing from the GFS op at the moment that suggest this, but is one I will be keeping an eye on.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
The AO forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif has to be a positive as well as the forecasted NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif which seems to be heading negative as well as we enter January.
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I believe the pattern changed to blocked and snowy around second week of JanMuch better charts today. What price a version of last year's pattern - wet December followed by the freezer for Winter Proper? (Remember it's only the second day of winter by the cosmos - *runs for cover*) When did the pattern change last year? Early Jan?
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Just out of interest, where is GP? I miss his model commentary.Probably true but BA said previously something that GP had said. This was that when the PV is stronger it will filter through more quickly and have a greater effect... forgive me if I'm wrong
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Sorry lol, I meant to say Neg AO. Must be because its been positive for so long.Hopeful is a good word - nothing concrete but there is hope out threre. (Although the 18z shows how the probable trop vortex split will likely be pressured by the strength of the jet )Neg AO GSL ??
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I thought that it was quiet too. As we head into January there are the signs of the PV weakening over the Arctic, getting replaced by a positive AO. This does not guarantee us cold and snow but could help. The trends at this range are key and need monitoring. This must be the 3rd time today though that show this.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/18/372/npsh500.pngIt's quiet in here this evening, someone please tell me things are looking hopeful for coldies???
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For what its worth the AO ens seem to be less positive than over the past few days. Nothing exciting I know, but its a start. I wonder if this supports what Nick Sussex was on about earlier?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
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Correct me if I'm wrong but that last chart screams potential doesn't it if a change to wintery weather is your thing. Just a shame its right at the far reaches of FI. Lets hope we see further similar trends on future runs. The met office update today also mentioned an increasing trend for colder weather to effect northern areas as we move towards the last third of December. Fingers crossed!Serious stuff if the LP sinks further SE
Getting in the reliable timeframe
But...
Further afield in FI bonkersland
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There seems to be a clear split in the NAO forecast towards the middle of the month. I would say there are slightly more negative/neutral ens than positive ones. I have checked this daily for the past week, todays negative ens are slightly more negative than they were a few days ago and the positive ens are less positive if that makes any sense. I know these can be quite unreliable at times but I thought I would add something a little more positive into an already more upbeat thread this evening.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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What frustrates me about the model runs of late are that they are CONSISTENTLY modelling this high pressure domination run after run with very marginal differences. If cold was showing in the models we all know that there would be much larger differences between runs. Having just flicked through the GFS 18z runs up to now there is still no sign of the slug of high pressure shifting anytime soon.
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A crumb of comfort offered by the GFS in FI...the PV over Greenland has nearly split thanks to our pesky high migrating NW. Gone in the morning no doubt but who knows.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131206/18/336/h500slp.png
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As daft as it sounds those are the best ens I 've seen by the GFS all week. We have a dip at the end!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A positive straw to clutch.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngStraw clutching of the worst kind but at the end of the run, the op is definitely on the mild side of things and there's a few below average options...
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I have recently been checking the NAO forecast over the past few days and for the third day in a row more and more members are pointing to a negative NAO around the middle of December. Whether this will have a direct effect on the UK is unknown, something worth watching though IMO.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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An intriguing post BFTP, what exactly has Ian Ferguson and RJS said tonight? I have scanned the past few pages but couldn't find anything. Many thanks in advance GSLWith regards to thoughts of Scandi HP later this month, my outlook suggests block to the east but not a cold Scandi that will really impact the UK and a flow from southern quadrant developing and I remain with my Dec outlook even with an enticing update such as provided by Ian F. I have also touted that Jan really interests me and have mentioned a possible cold impactual period like 1987 but am not full on for that yet. However, I have pricked my ears up reading RJS recent post.Funnily enough my outlook has big similarities to RJS.I think the models will toy with the Scandi HP down the line with it 'looking good' for us but will eventually ease back on its direct cold influence this month.Anyway we aint got our cold blast yet. BFTP
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Compared with yesterday's forecast the NAO looks like going negative as we head towards the middle of December if today's run is anything to go by. Something worth keeping an eye on as this could suggest a blocked Atlantic.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Going by this I would say there is 50-50 chance of it going negative or positive.On closer inspection perhaps more of a negative NAO as we head into the first full week of Decemberhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gifWhat is the forecast for the NAO? Is it going to be a negative or a positive in the next few weeks?
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Wouldn't this type of setup support frost, fog and more of a faux cold at the surface?ECM ends with the high remaining in place
Becoming less cold for all
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I too hope the ECM is leading the way, but surely we all remember 'That ECM' from early last December? For this reason I am trying not to get too excited regarding any cold and snow just yet.Unless that extra resolution recently upgraded I believe, is taking it down the garden path...Lets hope not!
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I flicked through the archives and to my very untrained eye I would say not. This is only one example but clearly shows a much weaker PV over Greenland. I wouldn't say there was strong HLB, but it looks more blocked than current charts are showing.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811128.gifOnly in the far reaches of FI does the PV look weaker, but no way near the same extend as in Dec 1981.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.pngReally hope I have read the charts wrong and the similarities are there as I want snow and cold as much as the next coldie on here.Some on here are mentioning Dec 81. My recall of that month down here was a lot of snow and a couple of decent blizzards. Are the charts really hinting that scenario?
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I agree Frosty, plus having looked through the GFS 12z 850 ensembles they too paint a fairly cool to cold prolonged spell. I would not use the term 'mild' to describe the weather over the next two weeks.I love this teasing chart from the Ecm 12z op run, it shows that cold shots are never far away and it's a cold run with frost and fog, nothing mild, can't complain about that.
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...as is the further outlook from the met office. That said, temperatures are forecast to remain on the colder side of average for next week with a gradual return to average as we head into December. Could be a lot worse.Brian Gaze going for a gradual warm up as we head into December.
although a split ENS the majority are heading mild
Will 18z be another downgrade??
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Couldn't agree more Bradowl. I love the cold and snow etc, but its the 19th of November not the 19th Dec/Jan! November/early December 2010 was very special and something unlikely to be repeated just yet. I live in hope though.The added bonus is if this HP stays over us for next fortnight then large parts of Europe should see a massive drop in temperature which could benefit us next month.
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Nothing new there then! From my memory, during winter months the 18z GFS can throw up some lovely charts if cold and snow are your thing only to be obliterated by the 00z run in the morning. Lets see where we end up in half an hour.The GFS is on an epic adventure of self-discovery.
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Really hope you're right!! All I keep on looking at is whether the PV cranks up or not. Long may the current trends continue when winter gets going over the next few weeks.Massive upgrades happening tonight! Could well be some early snow for real haha. I am also liking that massive cold blast packing a punch into Europe on GFS! Very tasty indeed. This could well bode into a very exciting winter.
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We have quite a few trees around here that are sheading leaves too. The horse chestnut trees are turning a lovely yellow colour too.
Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover