Severe Siberian icy blast

No mate i live just north of evashum now very low ground gutted big time!

That is hilarious good night on the mountains then tell me the post code I'm on my way

Mark and Mr Morgan (first name sir!?) Redditch and alvechurch does a lot better than where I am now (5 miles north of evashum)but last year everywhere did well so if we get a deep cold spell it will stil affect, but won't be hear for ever, trying to find a hill to move to lol

Oh coming mate pipe down you know what I'm on about lol

Matt it's 8pm, the air is cold enough for snow to lower levels. The Irish sea is alive, give it time

I agree mark, people have selected memories, we've all been waiting avidly for this cold spell right from the start of winter, we had a short cold spell first half Dec then it was projected Xmas time, before moving further and further? False day 10 charts rarely moving forward, nobody's fault though it's just the weather, but yes this winter certainly hasn't gone to plan!

Hi sir this is who you speak of!!!!! Good to hear you mate how's things? Where you working these days? Enjoy the snow tomoz think you will have some i stand no chance living near evashum very low ground I'm gutted lol

No I haven't got another chase in me, the mods can't get it right at t96 so why an earth would they nail it from 240hrs? The downwell has flopped at the end of the day we all know it can happen but just have a feeling it's one of the years, As for next week it's not really a cold spell let's be honest, having to go high on a hill in January to find snow doesn't tick my box and definitely doesn't class as a cold spell!

The thing is the wedges have only really rang true this week into tue next week but apart from that they've generally not helped, and the time period they were meant to have biggest effect hasn't actually got hear yet, so more of a prediction more than a reality, one which has changed now so nothing is a given and the high pressure to our NW in 10 days could well be scuppered by remnants of the vortex left over there so think for me I'm refraining from forecasting anything because they very rarely go the way you think

If this ends up been correct then it also shows the trop on this occasion is king over the strat, don't shoot the messenger gang but as I said if it can go wrong then it will, May go the entire winter snowless now there's a thought!!!

Maybe but it's just another garden path scenerio and it got everybody walking the path again only at t96 to start changing once most thought we were home and dry but I'm so glad Iv learnt from the past years of this happening but stil get emotionally caught up in the hype that's what weather lovers do unfortunately but if it will go wrong for anyone then it will for the brits in afraid

To be completely honest I think we are gonna miss the boat for next week, you can see even on the other models although they bring the cold air over us the notion is for the Atlantic high to drift over the UK, the ecm is at the very extreme end of that pattern but the other 2 mods stil in some way have the same idea to a lesser degree, I think a middle ground solution hear with uk missing out on v cold uppers next week but very cold surface conditions but no snow showers from the east.

Just turned up for footie in Redditch and confirm it's turning to snow lots of flakes coming down in the rain. Could be a few surprises

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96,

There's know denying it, ecm is messy, and keeps us at the very edge of the set up, with milder air never to far away from western areas, but it's one run, and stil just about delivers although not much in the way of snow in the West or on low ground, Thankfully it will probably look different in the morning but let's see where it is in the ensembles, but iv been burnt loads of times before so I'm holding back the champs for another 24 hrs!

Paul it gets put back and put back, you know this, iv barely saw a frost, never mind snow, horrific winter so far and we are half way through. . I will never personally put a winter forecast together because it's fraught with danger, almost impossible to get right and this year is just another example

It's because the Ec46 is a finally tuned long range forecasting super computer, which is greatly respected amongst the most coorperate organisations on the plannet, a bit different to the gfs which is a short range forecasting tool, yes it goes to 384 but once it gets into low res is rapidly goes back to climatology inbuilt within it which is why it's famous for blowing up the jet stream etc, And also why it's looked at with a huge pinch of salt by many past t144

It's the 2nd from last chart available who gives a monkeys honestly?? It barely gets it right at t144 I honestly am completely amused when people use charts like this for cold or mild it has no relevance what so ever. We have great changes happening now not only within the strat but clearly the downwelling has begun, Let's hope we all see some snow!

Sorry but you are cherry picking, no uppers of -4 on a northwest flow will bring snow to anyone apart from Scottish ski resorts, and the last chart is looks like a fleeting northerly, Thankfully we are becoming primed for wedges of heights to develop north of the diving jet into Europe, hence the 240hr ecm at low and behold day 10. Next week is cool zonality, after that who knows which is where we expect things to get interesting.

Digging low heights, possible wedge to north/northeast

Not talking about what your on about mate!! Anyhoo really glad to see things looking up, be good to have something worth remembering this winter, like last, cold winters tend to come in clumps, it's no coincidence they tend to come during Low sun patterns. . .

Take my hat off to @bluearmy the sinking trough and small wedges of heights playing out like del boys pack of cards against boycey!!

Great post, this is basically what I was saying earlier before a few people misread what I said, Everything is fraught with danger, especially when using teleconnections because people tend to put more weight into what's been said, but then with that comes the possible backlash when things don't go to plan, We like to think the background signals a more stable than the day to day running of the mods but I'm not sure anymore, because like you say it's the ssw that's scuppered next week amplification, so therefore we wait for the next wave of fun, but it only takes one of the variables to change then that could scupper the downwelling effects, So clarification, is winter over, NO!!! Absolutely not i would never say such a thing, especially what we have had in March in more recent years (13/18) Are certain LRF's bust? Yes 100% But please understand I was not digging at anyone I'm in awe and very greatfull for the work and understanding that goes in year after year into lrf's. Hears to a foot of snow in Feb

Anyway moving forward, the eps do look more amplified some what, I think the next 7 days we should (if strat warming downwells properly) start to see more exciting charts, a quick trop response is looking unlikely, The Atlantic dominated period could well be the flushing down of the westerly winds from high up, quite often a short Atlantic period proceeds the cold block from the ssw.

I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late. Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer rea-justs to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations, Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas. This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face. Have a good one