Severe Siberian icy blast

Great looking charts moving forward with another northerly of sorts becoming a possibility around day 8?

Woke up at 4:30 and thought I'd just check the radar quickly then realised there's loads of showers around me so I looked out and it's all white which is a big shock to he fair as I'm low ground. Then been watching the trough up north and it's intensified not weakened. It's looking really strong. However we will have to see what happens but we all should see somethin out of it

Iv been watching this for 2 hours lol (don't ask) and I can tell you for a fact your in the direct line. Massive flop my the mods. The mids will get 2 hours of snow out of this or 1.5 minimum. Shouldn't break up too much as it's an area of low pressure. Iv got a covering of snow at 100ft asl aswel from the Cheshire gap, so no modspicked this up correctly

Mmmm I think your gonna get a lot more than that my friend given your location

Prepared to get battered folks. Iv been watching this bad boy since I woke up to a surprising covering and snow showers from the Cheshire gap going straight through the mids. The mods got this one wrong that's for sure. Surely there should be updated warnings out? Oh where I'm living now by the way is about 100ft asl. So low ground and stil white

The next 14 days will take us into February my friend? Or there abouts. The ec monthly is setting high pressure up toward Greenland area with some kind of NAO setting up. Which is a great outlook but none of the long range modles have done great this year so who knows!

I hate the word downgrade but looking at ops alone this evening then nothing more than high pressure next wk with the cold air staying over the channel. Pole opposite from the 06z that's for sure. But means nothing really because it's valid for a whole 6 hours!

Interesting because it's looking like it's slowly getting more intense. So the front should slow then from now ?

Sleet in the Cotswolds now becoming more snowy every minute.

Cam confirm sleet with wet thuds lol in Stow on the wold. Mate get 2 hours of heavy snow. Shame we couldn't be 3 hours later as we all would see some then

in Stow on the wold I can confirm it's sleet. Sudden slower thuds occurring hahaha I look like a right maniac though outside my shop on the main road staring into the sky!!!

Iv always been uncertain of low level snow, thin if It's heavy later then it could happen. I'm in the Cotswolds working until 6:30 so hoping I will see some. Just not sur how much? Think an inch possible?

Looking like a great 06z to be fair. Next wk is the first sustained easterly in a long time. It looks a tad more unsettled aswel with the potential for small features cropping up next week is an increasing possibility

Shouldn't be for too long for you mate

Yes it does, the 0z come out 4/5am then the 06z comes out about 11am

Yes I was hoping the mild blip will be squeezed out all together but it's really only going to be a 24 hr affair so not to worry.

Still a few uncertainties regarding the exact position of the high next week. Hoping for a little riggle room to push it north a bit but either way it's looking very cold for England and Wales probably Scotland also with surface conditions really playing there part under still conditions. Get the cold in place first and the snow will come normally. Little disturbances or features coming up against the block been fueled off the low pressure to our south is a genuine possibility so worry not about ppn when it's 5 days away. Bit gutted the ukv4 has downgraded the snow today but it seems the met have modified it significantly in there forecasts because it's still quite snowy for some on the beeb.

That low pressure in the Atlantic is not too far off from undercutting the high. If it sends energy under then the easterly wind will stiffen and bring snow to the southwest

That's one heck of a chart there t96. Could that be a snow event in the south East again?

This is exactly what I expected the gfs to give us in the op but it sort went to a West based -NAO But Yes with the vortex expected to migrate east again then we need to look West for hight rises again

Absolutely , the way forward after next week is look out for high pressure to build north in the Atlantic toward Greenland, looks like a possible west-NAO setting up on the gfs with a tanking -AO to match, interesting times at last

The gfs starting to sniff the coffee in the low res and moving the vortex back toward Siberia, means two things, 1 model volatility whilst this happens with big swings in the models 2 watch for the scandi hights to migrate west and north in low res, could be a northerly with greeny hights in fi

Not a bad ukmo t144 a little improvement, it's where the gfs is going that's really interesting me cold uppers coming on a slack easterly with pressure dropping

To be honest I'm not quite sure how the ukmo has managed to go from a fantastic t96 chart with hights split and building into scandi to the t120 chart it's showing, still improvements on the 0z but think it's a big jump in 24 hr period to start sinking the high.

The U.K.M.O is much sharper than the gfs, could that be a snow event for the east maybe? Great hights into scandi there aswel.