Severe Siberian icy blast

Lol knocker at t324 ??? Not that old chestnut again !! In the mean time . A tanking negative AO/NAO (probably)for the next 10 days at least!

There we have it guys. We've finally sent someone nuts by moaning about mild rampers!!!! Nice one Ian. I for one think that sounds like a well balanced, thought out forecast. With a fair chance of it coming into fruition. . . . Let the dream continue guys°°°°

Hi. First post for a few months. I would say a few differences that could make all the difference is the strat is forecast to have a fairly large split from bottom to top with it splitting into 2 main areas. I remember the block last year we was all watching but there was a clear difference in behaviour when looking at the top of the strat which was cooling rapidly and becoming organised where as the bottom was weak and unorganised and we all hoped it would continue into the winter. We all no it didn't. So that's different there. The second major difference although still very early is the fact that last year the whole of Europe north to south was, in the main covered in warm air so when we had good synoptics with a south-easterly or easterly air flow we had no cold uppers to tap into. We did actually have about 4 or 5 rain events that would of been snow if we had colder air in Europe. Once we get Europe cold then if in place come December there will normally be some around in Europe for much of the winter which would make it a lot easier for snow and cold etc. For the love of money let's hope so I can't handle another flipping mild winter. . . . Lol

Having a great storm in chelt whilst shopping with the Mrs. Really good fork lightening and very close loud booms. Really impressive for day time and a bit surprised to be honest

Evening Corinthian . im going to Austria this Sunday , mayahofen , I'm going to the snow bombing festival , gonna be an awesome week , great dj's and hopefully great boarding, I'm a little worried as we have a very mild spel heading there way for the weekend so im a little gutted , but hoping there's gonna be enough high up . so what's the freeze festival ? Sounds fun. Are you going ? cheers shaun

In Cheltenham now and the taxi driver just told me it's really thick in the Cotswolds and now I litterelly can't wait to get home !!!!! Woop woop But first off I'm out on the lash LOL

That's what I would expect to happen . I computer can correctly guess the outcome but going by experience I would say lots of Northern blocking to come and a cold second half of March. Or at least Europe as a whole going cold. It's only to expect ramifications once the warming begins to downwell.

So to be honest Ian this goes very much against the recent updates of the last 2 weeks . Firstly the major warming now was not meant to be the final warming but now it is ? Sounds a bit dubious to be honest . Secondly the blocked cold late March early April has been something you have mentioned consistently recently and now the models have dropped it ? I completely understand you can only go by the most recent updates but it really goes to show how fickle even the super computers of this world can be . I really find it pointless in giving forecasts of 3/4 weeka in the future when come nearer the time models see things very differently .this is something that happens a fair bit . It's only the weather is suppose but it's a tad frustrating when things change like the clappers . It just makes me take every forecast out there with a massive pinch of salt and even you most recent update will probably be different next week . Enjoy the rollercoaster guys

Guys the met have got this wrong in the sense that they said no settling snow below 200m . There was a few cm at sea level for some. And if you look how much high ground has got it's really a significant event high up . Also if you have a look at the met o radar . Then have a look at there predicted radar they have got the angle wrong . Plus the fact the colder 850's are here it could well mean we have less rain and more snow. Beginning to feel a tad optimistic!

Wow I'm so happy for you mate. Any new pics pls? ??? On a side note I notice it's very heavy and organised which as it moves south think it bares well for us Midlands lot . Also the fact that colder850's embedded could well mean more snow than rain on high ground where as many of you had 6/7 hours of rain first . Certainly beginning to think we may be in for some later !

we are about to see one very strong SSW , record breaking ?? Not sure but to have the winds reverse to -70 m/s that's litterely going as strong as any average zonal wind states in any 1 season , the difference ? The wind is going the other way lol . Really feel this should blow the vortex to bits , makes me think may we be in for a rapid response ? Not sure but make no mistake we are about to witness a very strong warming which undoubtedly will have massive ramifications for the northern hemisphere come mid/late month . It will be great to get fridged air into Europe .

Wow that's some reversal , the models haven't picked up the downwelling yet but Iv no doubt this should blow the vortex apart ? Could be a very interesting late March period !

4.9 . Mid month is gonna go freezing

But why even get caught up in anything past t144 . I understand that we look for trends but how many charts at even t144 come to fruition? It's a developing situation as ever and with the mjo lag and what looks to be another strat warming I'm sure the mods will change.

Link isn't working Ian?

Hi jjs487 yes this week we have northwesterly feed for the first half of the week and like you said fronts moving in toward the weekend , it's unclear as to how much of the U.K. If any they affect but as these sink southwards it looks very likely we will have some sort of easterly developing across much of England , not convinced we will see any ppn from the fronts approaching from the west but it will be nice to see some frontal snow for once . And maybe some wintry showers from the east through the weekend , but the uppers aren't that cold this week , but stil cold enough for snow I should think particualarly at night , I think we need those deeper uppers over Asia to move westwards to stand a proper chance of having deeper cold , which could happen if the -AO signature moves the cold west sufficiently to get involved in the flow coming down the western side of the high pressure toward the uk but it's a long way off yet . a great first post from you and I'm sure your use to the rollercoaster you get to ride for free when you join here ! Enjoy the Pepsi max mate it's one hell of drop when we'r sat at the top and quite unexpected at times !!

As Ian has just said that completely goes against every other computer model out there , despite the fact we have a high amplitude mjo as well , an east based. -NAO has always looked odds on toward the tale end of the winter , yet again refusing to look at the nearer time and use d16 gefs as your main guide to forecasting the weather , yet the met for example don't even look at it past t144 , if you have a look at the verification statistics which has been posted time and time again so you must have saw them (?) you really are just waisting unnecessary energy , it really baffles me but it's up to you . the models today do make a hell of a lot of the shallow low to our southwest and blowing it up big time , I feel they Will ease off this over the coming days , its all a journey !

The GFS is totally ridiculous in the way it blows up a shallow flat low south of the UK into a monstrous dart board low with severe gales. It's absolutely ridiculous and not even worth looking at after t144 at the very latest . Even the way it delayes the cold air Sunday now until Monday evening getting south of the Midlands is suspect . It's been Sunday evening all week but now it's Monday afternoon. Il be very wary of this model . Not because it's not showing what I want but because it's over complicating matters in typical fashion it's really annoying ! Anyway rant over lol

If this wasn't after a 3rd dire winter on the trot then this place would be buzzing . Big differences between the 06/12z so have to mindful of that although the 06z has always struggled with blocking . But looking very interesting moving forward and early March would easily bring lying snow .

IDO you seriously can't see any blocked charts ? You must be blind sorry . Even if they don't have a direct effect on the uk although many of them do , nobody can deny that northern blocking is taking a foothold on the northern hemisphere , we don't have to look post t168 for it as it's all within the more reliable timeframe , what happens after this is up for debate but models historically underestimate blocking situations , so be wary of any models blowing them out the way for fun . The last few winters have been mainly zonal so your assessments relying on day 16 mean charts have not been too bad but you really should no by now/recognise that mean charts for over 2 weeks out are pointless and misleading. But I personally would rather try to use discretion and look at signs and what 'may' happen , because 1 , it's more fun , and 2 , I learn more . But like I say , each to there own I suppose

Hi Karl , I'm afraid to say your wrong about the 12/13 winter been abysmal , we had 3 large snow events in January one of which on 17th was nationwide , the other came 3 days later on a Sunday and gave 10cm to much of the midlands and areas south and east of the mids , the other of another 7-10cm came 3 days on again on a Tuesday evening which gave me 6 inches with my elevation , and then February gave another 2/3 smaller slushy affairs , then came March . I have no point in what I'm saying because it has no bearing on this winter although that winter synoptically and locally was very very different . anyway sorry for going off the subject

Morning Nick , how's things ? yes the 06 looks like it's caught on to the same Synoptics as the ECM was showing this morning with raising heights in the Atlantic stretching northwards towards greenland , with undercutting low pressure it really would promote snow events , with an east based -NAO it really doesn't get much better than that with regards Synoptics , we no March really can be an extension of winter so that sort set up will really can still deliver the goods . Also with a stronger sun and cold upper air temps no doubt we will see some good convection which can be very interesting weather with sharp sudden blizzards and extreme temperature gradients . So definitely a colder outlook over the next 10 days with more snow chances on the way .

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the ECM this morning , t144 onwards sees high pressure heading toward Greenland with another slider of sorts , be interesting to see if models develop this particualarly as it fits into what Ian f said they expect as we head into March .

It's not very often il say this but the GFS has been extremely consistent for days now and I personally will be very very surprised to see this proved wrong. I'm confident we will see another epic fail by the once infamous ECM which really does begin to raise question marks on its reliability. If it does then it's 3 times in 1 week which is very unusual. Next week looks cold now . And with a good scandi ridge in place linking up with the Arctic high which will give a strong negative AO signature going into next week and last night I mentioned about that pushing some deep cold air south into Europe . You can see that modeld well on the 06z with some really deep cold moving south from the pole. That brings more interest moving forward and will only help enhance the cold stagnant air and make things harder to budge . Interesting times

Ignoring specific details I just wanna point out how nice it is to see an abundance of high lat blocking moving forward quite a strong -AO setting up there for next week and in a fairly good position to advert deep cold air south into Europe and gives us a fairly good opportunity for further cold and snow events to manifest themselves . I have a sneeky feeling that the strat warming is beginning to manifest itself into the models and maybe it isn't a complete flop like everyone on the strat side of things thought so ? Or if it is trop led then that's 2 major trop led -AO signatures we'v managed to achieve without the strat giving us a helping hand . Either way I think the second half of Feb is beginning to look interesting . Im gutted this weekends snow has miserably failed by the looks but at least things don't terrible moving forward . lets see how this all pans out