Severe Siberian icy blast

Agree in the main . This northerly is only really setting it from tomorrow and we can see kinks in the isobars on the models particulary on gfs , which surely would bring some snow South ? Early next week looks best for this . Monday and tue I would say . But the low dropping South on Sunday from Iceland doesn't really look like reaching land fall now so think the threat will recede in met forecast . Hope I'm wrong though ? Woooo iPad working !

It definately went further east than thought by the met . I was told to expect up to 5cm by Ian f . I had heavy sleet that washed my snow cover away . Very frustrating . Story of the winter so far for me :marginality

Forgive me for not posting charts my iPad is up the duff at the minute . But if you have a look at the ecm at t96 , we have a good northerly , a very strong atlanitc block , then jump to t120 and we have it seemingly pushed aside with low pressure ridgging over the top , it just doesn't look feeseble to me . It's the most progressive model to do this , I don't no where we'r heading , I thought we would see a move to a Scandi high this morning tbh , but it's not really evolved . Yes we get a slack easterly of sorts on the gfs especially but not what I had in mind . But hey ho , I don't really think anyone can say where the breakdown is gonna come from . If at all . Really think we'r gonna see an easterly by mid February . As re the polar low I had heavy sleet . After heavy snow showers all eve its washed the snow away . Some polar low ! The lesson : if the met isn't raving about it , then it's not gonna happen .

Iv noticed that once it hits land its intensifying. Infact over the years iv noticed quite often a front is over sea and it almost disappears . Then once it hits land it regroups . We can see this over northwest England and Wales . Think this can be a very good event tbh

Sorry I meant in depth distribution. My guess is 5-10cm in a prime spot

Very good estimate , puts mids , East wales , and maybe Oxford in firing line , exactly my predicted path '') Is everyone too scared to give an estimation ?

Indeed it's nice and white tonight. Got home to a dusting then had a good heavy snow shower so a really good covering now and everything frozen . Should get a few inches . All depends on intensity I suppose .Very exciting though

What's current predictions ? I'm going 5-10cm in prime location . 2-5 widely .

I'm going as a midlands event , East wales and as Far East as Warwickshire , then swinging southeast , I think Oxford should get some beofre slipping South . Just out of interest this seems very intense and I would think it certainly had the potential to drop anything from 5-10cm for those in the prime spot . Just wondering what your and others thoughts were ?

Blimey Steve that's almost an easterly there !

To be honest that already looks wrong though , it has the initial streamer far to far East , if you have a look at the current radar it's got that feature just much further west .Also regarding ones who are fretting about it raining in Ireland remember Ireland's the most western part of our land , there will always be a warm sector on the Western side in these scenarios unless it's wrapped up in true polar air which I thought polar lows are lol shows what I no!

I wish I could post charts but damn useless iPad is crap ! It really amuses me how one or two can promote breakdown every day , when every day we see the cold air extended . When I look at the GEM it's evolution looks more than feeseble . Why ? Because this isn't just something it's picked out a hat . The models have been slowly sniffing around the idea of an easterly post 5th February for a while now . Even at t168 on the big two we can see the high trying to ridge into Scandi . Indeed in fi the gfs creates a major block silencing the Atlantic and lots of trough distruption , sending europe well and truly into the freezer , then a look at the ensembles and we can see there's somethign in the water. Definately onto something . In the mean time we have a good cold 7 days to look forward to with snow at times for many at some point . Really quite optimistic going into February and certainly wouldn't stick my kneck out and say when not if the Atlantic breaks through . Interesting times

Now you've got me interested lol? I'm interested to no how jan hasn't gone to plan?? None of us were expecting a blocked month was we ? I certainly wasn't after the December shenanigans !

The problem is , there gettin over the Welsh mountains , and then they hit the very low ground in evashum , Tewksbury and Gloucestershire , that's what kills them off , iv watched it first hand for years , even under frontal conditions , the first place to look for signs of a weakening front is the area from evashum southwards .If they intensify then we may get something , but they look heavy just 40 miles away only to fizzle out once they hit the erea of death mentioned above !

To be fair they've been going to plan for the entire month of jan .December was where all long range forecasts went bust , apart from the met of course . Although the first 2 thirds of the month was meant to be zonal , it was the pattern over siberia and the polar feilds that didn't correlate to analogues . So it was a case of almost starting again and looking at the present teleconnections and try to figure out where we'r going. And to be fair , Tamara's posts have been not just informative , but accurate . I would actually say the GWO cycle (and to a certain extent the MJo) has been the two main drivers this winter , the strat had played its part aswel of course , granted we didn't get the SSW but we did get the warming , but the absence of the Siberian/Asian high through december has had critical consequences since , but despite all this we'r still heading in the right direction , with things moving ever forward toward a more blocking scenario through February and into March . Baring in mind we'r only just out the mid January cold spell , which when broke down , despite the models staring straight down the zonal loaded gun , lasted just a week , and now this next amplification has and continues to upgrade in longevity . So rather than the next pulse of projected westerlies , we may just end up with 4/5 days of his pressure bringing cold frosty weather while slowly migrating toward the North East . That's my take on things , slowly getting a handle on things I think , but it's a lot lot of damn learning I no that much !

Iv had my first snow shower very brief affair , but certainly more showers around than I thought there would be ? There meant to intensify during the night aren't they ? Certainly can't rule a covering out in one or two locations , looks like the Midlands area are gonna get in the action tonight with the infamous 'Cheshire gap streamer ' working its magic ! I used to love them days when I was a kid near brum , me and my bro use to look forward to northwestelies as its delivered some large snow falls in the past . Certainly been a good old fashioned winter this one , been a long time since we had snowy northwestelies . Radar watching at its best !

Whilst it looks it may topple , the low pressure exiting the vortex to our northwest is held back between the time frames t144/168 , may be able to ridge North actually on the latter frames , but idealy we want a negative tilt to the trough rather than a positive one .

Rather than squabbling why don't you look at the radar and see all these lovely showers coming through the Cheshire gap setting up what looks to be sa streamer , early days but certainly looks like getting lively . It's not beyond the realms of possibilities is it ? Just stop freting and enjoy the winter weather we'v waited 2 years

To be honest as much as I think it's definately a radar watch eve , i think the wind is to northwesterly for areas south of brum to see much , If it was westerly then id be very hopeful of a Bristol streamer but I think the Welsh mountains will kill a lot of our energy . Hope I'm wrong and I don't rule out a dusting but if there were anything of note the met would of picked upon it .

Not without interst as we move through feb IMO , certainly can't see a strong zonal jet , my worry is the deep cold over the states may fuel it , but plent of examples of cold over ther aswel as hear , not sure how long the siberian vortex will last but it does look it will move back toward home , but with Europe heading into the freezer it should help build high pressure over there just hope it can get into more Northern Territory .

Ian f very active on Twitter : 30% chance of small acc of snow in South . Sleet/Snow showers tonight , but NO repeat 09/10 . Small development thurs/fri sees rain/sleet at low levels but subject details to change . From Sunday the coldest spell of the winter likely . Cold next week .

yes excellent charts . The shallow trough picked up by gfs is there on all 3 models this morning . The UKMO having it as a much weaker affair . But great to see this being thrown into the mix.The ECMWF_0Z at t192 is the flattest out the 3 . To much troughing north and north east of the high for it to ridge East . So I suspect It'l sink . But non the less what a great start to the day .

A fantastic pub run upto t180 , absolutely no point in taking it serious from this point in . Just for fun and trends remember . A very unstable northerly that's for sure . The coldest spell of the year . Great .

To be fair I agree with that although I was one that posted moaning about the strength of the vortex , I sort of went against my own advise to be honest cause all the signals are there for us all to see and they do now seem to be driving our winter finally.The 0z although the worst run of the day were better than yesterday's 0z and we are told to compare like for like . A good day of model watching though and great to see the trough disruption causing headaches .

Good post . I noticed the first signs of trough destruption yesterday I think ? But yes there's certainly a possibility with such a deep euro trough it would encourage high rises to our North west, just depends on the strength of the high pressure , and of course the strength and angle of the low pressure exiting the vortex over Canada . If we can hold the low pressure back just 24 hours then it gives the high pressure chance to build north of the uk . If the low can disrupt against the high , then that massively increases our chance of extending the cold , if she goes under the high and cuts it off the it could be all sorts of fun and games!