Severe Siberian icy blast

I like most on hear are on the look out for signs of a Change to a colder pattern , and yes there does appear to be changes on the way , for how long or how cold I don't no , but for any high lat blocking that lasts for longer than 24hours we need the vortex to take a holiday to the other side of the pole , which there is also hints of it migrating toward Siberia , although this mornings ECM has bucked that trend , let's hope it's a false cry . This aside I was going to ask you if your able to give me an explanation for your optimisim on a wintry spell for Xmas ? Have you done a winter LRF ? What analoges are you using ? I think I'm sniffing a few signals but certainly nothing concrete yet , I think we need to see the return of the Siberian high asap to continue to move us forward because it's pivotal to increasing waves breaks into the strat . Cheers

Been heavy snow hear for a good hour everything white . A good covering . Got another hour(ish) I think . Really never expected this . A little hight helps

Been heavy snow hear for a good hour everything white . A good covering . Got another hour(ish) I think . Really never expected this . A little hight helps

Agreed it's going to feel much more seasonal , but most snow has been removed from the models this morning apart from exposed areas and further north , but don't see much further south , but yet it's still a week away so set to change .

Even before winter officially began however, much of the U.S. was hit with a round of very cold temperatures and in one particular part of the nation, very heavy snowfall. This was due in part, of all things, a tropical weather system. Typhoon Nuri, which reached the level of a category 5 typhoon in the tropical Pacific, moved into the higher latitudes of the North Pacific in early November, resulting in one of the worst storms on record to move through the Bering Sea. That system had a significant impact on the weather pattern downstream across North America as it sat over the Bering Sea, effectively pumping up a ridge over the West Coast of North America, which in turn produced a very deep trough over the rest of the continent. November 8-20 showing the drastic change in the upper air pattern that took place in the second week in November 2014. As a result, surface temperatures were much colder than normal for that time of the year across the U.S. as shown in Figure 4. This was put into perspective in a great blog by Chris Burt, Weather Channel Historian, when he discussed the change in temperature in Cheyenne, Wyoming from early to mid- November. “It was the coldest November since 2000 for the contiguous U.S. (and 16th coldest on record) thanks to an exceptional arctic outbreak in the middle of the month," says Burt. "In Casper, Wyoming the temperature fell to -27°F (-32.8°C) on November 12th, its coldest on record for November. Amazingly, this was a drop of some -99°F (55°C) between November 1st, when the temperature peaked at 72°F (22.2°C) tying the record for the warmest November temperature ever observed in the city to November 12th when the monthly record low occurred.†We would be remiss if we did not mention what some would call the biggest snowfall of the season for a populated area, that is the major lake-effect snow storm that hammered the suburbs just to the south of Buffalo, NY during the week before Thanksgiving. The lake-effect snow was due in part to the unseasonably cold air that set up over the Great Lakes due to the arctic outbreak. Two successive bouts of snow off a relatively warm and ice free Lake Erie produced phenomenal snowfall totals of as much as 70†in some places. The storm shut down a 132 mile stretch of the New York State Thruway and was accompanied by several rounds of lightning and snowfall rates as high as 6†per hour !! .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_North_American_winterHave a look through this , highlights the impacts the cold had in northeast USA

Very true I know it was isolated cold , but parts of the northeast and at times more centrally did have exceptionally cold blasts .

it's certainly a different set up this year which is always exciting just simply because it's different . North America have had 2 very cold winters recently but looking how different the sea temp set ups are this year makes for a very different year . For me personally I agree and think the Pacific Ocean temps will give the states a mild winter . Remembering of course the ocean temps in the North Pacific off the west coast of North America/Canada has cooled off substantially recently so don't think the omega block will feature like it did the last 2 years running . Along with the super Nino in complete contrast to recent years . I really feel Europe's gonna experience a cold winter , I think a very strong Russian block frequently migrating west toward Scandinavia after the turn of the year paritcualy , and yes at times (as much as 3 times) I think it will in some way effect our shores . With northern blocking playing a major part in February migrating west toward Greenland . Naturally we will always be on the edge of most European freezes so we will , as we normally do , have a zonal winter of sorts , but cold zonal bringing many wintry showers to many , cold zonal period bringing temps of -1c below the normal for an average zonal spell , so maybe 3/4'c in the south 2/3'c in the north , rather than 4-7'c respectively , interspersed by frequent marginal snow events for England , followed by 2-4 days of colder easterly winds from the continent , then rinse repeat for most of jan , but the Russian high mainly becoming a Scandinavian high as we go through feb , exerting more and more influence , so cold spells becoming more entrenched later on . That's my thoughts , I know many no me to a snow lover and I am . But Iv never even attempted to air my winter thoughts before now , and im saying it as I see it this year . The super El Niño, and ocean temp profile been our main drivers this year , with the Russian/Scandinavian high running a close second. Please feel free to correct me/advise me guys . Either way another fascinating winter coming up

Hi Roger , You make a lot sense there and it's certainly a different set up this year which is always exciting just simply because it's different . North America have had 2 very cold winters recently but looking how different the sea temp set ups are this year makes for a very different year . For me personally I agree and think the Pacific Ocean temps will give the states a mild winter . Remembering of course the ocean temps in the North Pacific off the west coast of North America/Canada has cooled off substantially recently so don't think the omega block will feature like it did the last 2 years running . Along with the super Nino in complete contrast to recent years . I really feel Europe's gonna experience a cold winter , I think a very strong Russian block frequently migrating west toward Scandinavia after the turn of the year paritcualy , and yes at times (as much as 3 times) I think it will in some way effect our shores . I think we will have zonal periods , but the jet will be forced under the block on many occasions , I think Germany/Poland are in for a really cold one I really do . With northern blocking playing a major part in February migrating west toward Greenland . Naturally we will always be on the edge of most European freezes so we will , as we normally do , have a zonal winter of sorts , but cold zonal bringing many wintry showers to many , cold zonal period bringing temps of -1c below the normal for an average zonal spell , so maybe 3/4'c in the south 2/3'c in the north , rather than 4-7'c respectively , interspersed by frequent marginal snow events for England , followed by 2-4 days of colder easterly winds from the continent , then rinse repeat for most of jan , but the Russian high mainly becoming a Scandinavian high as we go through feb , exerting more and more influence , so cold spells becoming more entrenched later on . That's my thoughts , I know many no me to a snow lover and I am . But Iv never even attempted to air my winter thoughts before now , and im saying it as I see it this year . The super El Niño, and ocean temp profile been our main drivers this year , with the Russian/Scandinavian high running a close second. Please feel free to correct me/advise me guys . Either way another fascinating winter coming up.

With about o% chance of verifying!

Haha well thankfully it doesn't quite work like that does it , although it doesn't really mean much at this stage we can take a few positives at this stage : 1: to see the jet stream displaced in autumn when it should be rampant , but rather been bossed about by an unusually early start to winter to much of Northern Europe . 2: Warm air advection been pumped high up into the polar regions preventing the vortex from gaining strength which if continued could prove pivotal moving forward . 3: Siberian snow index getting off to a fantastic start , not just restricted to Siberia but moving into more central/northern parts of Europe as we progress through the next 7 days . With last year been the exception , it usually is vital to bringing winter home . 2012/13 been a fantastic example of this "theory" proving correct , I'm convinced that was a major player which helps wave activity into the stratosphere , in my opinion nobody should underestimate the impacts of SSI . Even right out into la la land we can very prominent northern blocking Whilst been cautious not to be led up a garden path , I would much rather see this now , than a developing vortex , we no November normally sees all hopes dashed , aka last year , so let's keep our feet on the ground lol , but I think it's fair to say Iv creeped out the wood work !!

The thing is we can all find reasons to be positive about different factors leading into autumn , last year for example , we had everything bar low solar energy . We had -QBO , El Niño , - OPI , but last year it really all went wrong . What caused it ? The most obvious been dominant low pressure over northern Russian when thought it would be high pressure , that in turn stopped warm air been pumped up into the polar regions , we had another cold winter in the states ( I no that's debatable but extreme cold flooded central and eastern areas at times ). Which we no gave us another strong jet stream , we had zero blocking to our north because of this . This year we don't no much at this stage apart from 2 maybe 3 things : strong El Niño all but guaranteed , a cold pool of water in the northern Atlantic , and a +QBO , so we may have an idea , does that increase the likely hood of SSW ? Figures suggest but who knows ? Does strong El Niño mean severe weather more likely ? Maybe but in what ways , we don't no ! Either way I can't wait , lol , going to Turkey mid October good timing keep me away from this addiction I have for a while ! Then get back and nearly November ! Roll on crisp days , cob webs , frosts , wine and log fires !!!

To be honest taking this run at face value 34c is very unlikely , infact this to me looks a lot more plausible given our location , and going by experience and history this mornings gfs is more realistic than the extreme scenarios previously been shown . I would welcome the more extreme scenario for the simple fact I'm a weather enthusiast and love extremes , but it's getting hot for 3 days. Then mid twenties for maybe another 2/3 days so still a lovely summery outlook , however I personally see this more likely . Although don't expect us to be that unsettled like it shows later . Let's see how this pans out.

Morning all , yes very good summery charts yet again this morning for next week . This time next to have that magic 20 850's over us is truly a rarerity So a hot spell from Tuesday looks a good bet , and by next weekend we are under hot sultry conditions with slack low pressure over the country , no doubt that would send pulses of thundery weather northwards , remember the thunderstorms of July 2013? Fantastic weren't they ? Always good to see continental storms head up from Spain . But a nice day today and to be honest very pleasant weather really until then , the odd day of cloud but sunny spells for many aswell . Roll on next wk

Unfortunately that's the reality of our weather dominated by the jet stream and very large ocean . So frustrating but as it's the norm its expected so we endure it . Apart from those that move abroad of course Mr Sussex !

What's became aparent is how absolutely difficult it is to get an easterly to the uk , almost all of the time the models change as we approach the day , when looking at the northern hemisphere charts we can still see a strong vortex particualry from greenland over to Canada , as long as the states have deep cold fueling the atlanitc then its near impossible to see a major pattern Change on a broad scale , yes we look like setting down in some way with high pressure over us and the continent , but to get high lat blocking is extremely difficult when you have a stong jet stream heading our way , it flatters it all out very very quickly .

Looking very interesting to say the least . But let's remeber the infamous failed easterly of dec 2012 , we get led up the garden path time and time again , agreed the teleconnections do tie up this time with the jet digging South , and WAA from the amplified low digging out the states pushing well North , the following pressure rise initially looks a good bet , it's what happens after that that's up for debate , does it sink ? Does it head east ? Does it sit over us ? Even if it heads East we need perfect orientation of the high to drag bitter cold air towards us . I really do hope we get this , we deserve it lol . My heart says yes gonna happen , my head tells me the heart is treacherous and don't get sucked in again !

The 12z is so much more amplified than the 06z was , are we about to enter into the first deep cold spell of the winter ? It's developed right under our noses at a relatively short time frame as always ! ironic really ! But not saw this much potential in a long time !

One would think with a pump of warm air into the pole the natural progression from that would be for rapid high pressure to build over northern regions ? Maybe Iceland over to Scandi a good bet ? Ironically it's about the only way to receive deep cold and snow in March ! If we could get some deep cold in place it would be fun and games not only with showers ,given the strength of the sun it would really help fuel some potent showers during daylight , but for significant snow we would like a good old southerly tracking low bumping into -10 850's ! Certainly not saying this will happen but there's certainly the opportunity for some type of Northern blocking as we head into March !

Frosty the cold you talk about is about as glancing as you can get . We will see no snow away from the Scottish mountains . And with low pressure to the north of us the high that amplifies the flow is just a displacemeant of the azores .but unable to ridge North its blown over us before returning South . Not saying won't change but your clutching at straws . I understand s positive mind set but there really is nothing to be positive about . The only way March provides snowy weather is by a very cold sustained northerly or an easterly via a Scandi high, I don't pretend to no what's gonna happen in March but if there were definate signs then we would all see it now . March 2013 was a result of the second SSW in mid February. We have nothing like that in the outlook. I'm thinking a warm March with the azores having a big influence by keeping the General pattern of the last 8-10months going .

It's so dead because we'v all realised what a complete waste of time this winter has been again . With so much early promise it's fizzled out to a complete bore fest .A much nicer winter than last year , colder and sunnier , but the fact we have nothing on the horizon with 16 days of winter left has been enough for many to wave goodbye and look forward to sunny spring days , flowers blossoming and the smell of grass guttings . Just hope next year delivers but got a feeling snowless winters comes in clumps . I await solar minimum with eagerness .

To be honest we'v been waiting for the upstream pattern to play ball for the last 2 years . 2 years without any high lat blocking , so I find it difficult to believe it's gonna happen in the next 3 wks . I think if there were any realistic chance of the uk going into the freezer or even just cold then Ian f would of given us a heads up. The trough will dig into europe and we will get a quick glimpsing 2 day cold spell where the uppers don't hang around long enough to drop the temp much so with uppers of -5/6/7 will give us temps ranging from 3-7c as we head south . Wish it was different this year given the early promise but it's been another snowless year for many below 150m away from Scotland and northern England .

What yet another absolute pathetic excuse of a winter , it's as bad as any of the snowless winters in the past . Yes some areas saw snow particuarly up north , but away from high ground it's been an absolute flop . Iv saw 5 dusting of snow with every single on of them been gone by midday . What a let down , this year had so much promise that's what makes it harder to take . Really look forward now to solar minimum in a few years

Download rain alarm app it's decent and updated every 10 min

Had a look at the Oxford airport web cam and you can see its snowing . Nothing on floor but must be snowing well as can see flakes in a very distorted picture