Severe Siberian icy blast

So it just goes to show how useless long range models are. The professionals and amateurs alike have all been led up the garden path only for the bad news to come on the second day of winter. Weather it will happen or not remains to be seen. We was all aware of the waning off period during the first 10 days of Dec with more mobility coming in briefly so you never it may be that mods are simply over reacting to that. But you really couldn't make it up. And it just goes to show how exceptionally hard it is in our county to get a proper winter.

Yes very different modeling over the Atlantic and the way jet behaves. Even with the gfs though it's all very messy and seems intent on keeping cold air away from the UK. Not sure we're gonna get a cold spell from this because even when we actually get the colder air filtering down on some runs it's full of shortwaves and troughs so my guess will be cool not cold with wintry showers to high ground and cold rain for the majority. Really hope I'm wrong . . .

To be fair though the ecm has its moments we have many rogue runs then it drops it again. So although the ecm wins hands down its not untouchable. There's know reason why the gfs isn't on to something because we're all waiting for the next round of amplification to filter through and a mid Atlantic Ridge up into Greenland isn't completely a surprise? Let's see how the next few runs go

Apologies to all round here gang my phones having a mad moment it's not letting me delete a thing hahaha.

Personally I'm not absolutely convinced on your comment re the ship sailing. All we need is the low dropping from Greenland to come south and disrupt against the block rather than riding it over the top and sinking it. We see this all the time. Not saying it will happen but if we saw any type of undercut then it may well be enough to drag colder uppers closer and certainly the dew points will be low anyway especially off a cold continent. So to have a snow event with a shallow low coming up against the high I actually don't think we're that far from. The Azores I think will move northwards but not necessarily be a negative and may pump warm air much further north towards Greenland aka gfs but as ever time will tell.

A few things that stood out to me, firstly is why did everyone go wild over one ecm run last night? Exciting run I get that but one run should still make us skeptical until we see consistency, secondly this morning ecm after reading some comments on here I thought would be showing offensive charts lol but actually it's a fairly nice run. We have Europe going very cold and staying cold, and considering all these easterly spells we are having this autumn gives us more confidence that the next one could well be very different. And anything after t168 is up for grabs, litterelly it changes like the clappers and I never take it seriously apart try to pick patterns out. I think the cold could well come closer than is been modelled simply because these set up a are notoriously hard to master and quite offers the mods are way to progressive in moving it on And lastly I really shouldn't pay much too much attention to long range forecasts apart from a possible pattern change etc because we have all been chasing cold now for 4 wks already and the cold spells are either very placid or just get moved backwards again so in apart from thinking this year has potential to be very different.

No I don't know feller ? I think I can guess though #solar minimum lol

I have to say. I'm absolutely gobsmacked by the state of the northern hemisphere this year. It's been a very very long time since iv saw a jet stream that doesn't actually exist. 2010 I think was the last time I saw that in winter. Just remarkable. Great for winter weather for us snow loving freaks lol but really quite worrying to see such an abnormal 3 wave pattern dominating the hemisphere at a time when the vortex and jet stream should be rampant.

I agree re the ecm after day 7. But the update indicated by this time next wk which is less than 10 days away. Nobody knows how this will plan out although a cold cyclonic pattern has great potential. Stick a greeny high into the mix with southerly tracking lows gets the taste buds going.

Erm basing your forecasts on the gfs one then yes fair enough but you can see how the ecm even at t144 thinks quite differently. In fact going by the update earlier today this time next wk we could well be looking down the barrel of a long cold spell with cyclonic weather systems sitting on the UK... cold uppers/low pressure= zonal westerly? No

Just wanted to thank you guys for getting back to me. Can't really decide where to go. I no aviemore is probably the most developed re apre etc which we do want a town with a few pubs etc. But don't want crap boarding/skiing etc.

Hi ice day. I'm on a budget this year so thinking of taking the Mrs to Scotland this year. Just wondering if you have any recommendations on where to go. I'm a boarder she's a skier? I'm told aviemore is the biggest . Also is it much cheaper than Europe? Would really appreciate your reply. Many thanks Shaun

So it's snowing up there quite early there isn't it? Wasn't it meant to be an early hour event up there? Turned to snow at 8:30pm which is early no?

Or how about this folks. It's ONE model run. Everything can change again in 12 hours. I'm waiting for that 'winters over' post next! It may well be right who knows but I'm not sure whether you guys are aware but this is what's predicted to happen for next wkend etc not what's actually happened already!!! Let's the victory dance until the actual time period has came rather than 12 hours after a completely different set of charts

Terrier that isn't what's been said at all is it. It's a 60/40% based on this mornings runs. Also they said if it breaks then it's anticyclonic with temp average at best. Then this default mobile pattern really isn't default is it because we haven't had rain for 2 months. In fact October was the most negative month ao/NAO for many years. Anyway back to the models. This evening there's a notable swing toward the ecm of this morning so looking good for a longer spell. . . . To be continued

The GFS 6 is notorious for been over progressive mind so wait for the 12 I would

Going by the GFS alone. I don't think it's right to just highlight the cold over 300 hours away because in all honesty the cold spell has never got any closer than 200 hours. It's an absolute mess until the low resolution because at that range it doesn't pick out the small areas of low pressure that forms due to large temperature gradients over warm seas. So whilst I'm not saying it won't go cold which is always possible with the vortex in demolition mode I would urge caution before thinking we are gonna go cold because the last cold spell has that was forecast for this wkend has now upper air of +10 over us with no cold air coming into the mix until the very last few frames. Not saying this is right of course.

Evashum for you buddy. I'm from redditch and me and my bro had snow events and by the time you get to evashum there's nothing more than a slushy mess. It's incredibly low ground. And guess where Iv just moved to? You guessed it ! Away from the Cotswolds and to a little village called dunnington so I fear I will feel your pain!

Quite a startling set of models so far this evening, the vortex is in absolute tattors litterely none existent it could be the middle of July looking at the northern hemispheric set up, I'm certain their will be ramifications as head into winter, November is a critical month for the vortex and to have such an assault on it this early can only be good for those looking for cold into mid lats, the knock on effect and trop feed back can really have a habit of reoccurring over one season, a bit like our second half of summer and into sept , we consistently saw the Azores high throw ridge after ridge into the south of uk giving plumes as it moved into Europe, this winter is getting more exciting by the minute. Can't wait. . .

Shaky the blocking over greenlands hasn't disappeared, the vortex is still non existent, and leaving the detail out and focusing on the bigger picture it's still very interesting, so if you thought the cold first of November was locked in by these last few days then unfortunately you haven't learnt a thing from the last 3 years, the same applies if you now think that after one very messy gfs run with short waves and other areas of low pressure systems thrown in everywhere that it's our cold spell done for. I for one minute didn't think it would clean sailing and in the deep freeze we go, because it's not in the reliable time frame , it's all been in the main t200+. my humble opinion is we will get a colder spell, do I think a direct hit, no, but it's not even the first of November and the northern profile set up this year is poles apart from the last 3 years, I think we all need to focus on the bigger profile and look how fascinating it is to see such a weakened vortex been punched around the pole and critically how it's kept well away from our side of the pole.

Wow what a start to the season. This reversal should propagate down into the troposphere over the 3 wks of so? So although we have a cold first half of November looking likely could we be looking at extended cold spell induced by this reversal later through into November?

You can see the models struggling to deal with the affect of the next tropical storm moving north up the coast of America and how this interacts with the Atlantic and which route it takes is vital, if it moves north and joins with the weak vortex segment just west of Greenland it could pull the vortex northwest toward Canada opening the door for the mid Lat high to move north sending WAA into the pole really promoting a strong -NAO signature, however if it doesn't reach southern Greenland and comes straight over the Atlantic then it means a more zonal spell of weather for us, although stil not particularly wet just a more flat approach. Even then think once that tropical storm clears we will move toward a more northerly spell because the vortex still seems vacant from Greenland this year.

The vortex in absolute tattors on this mornings gfs, a marked move away from yesterday's charts it was chucking out. we always get this, the mods pick upon a new signal and completely over react to it then settle down once more and the reality is a much more watered down version of it. Still on course for a blocked start to November. . .

The development of the vortex during November is critical to the strength it can reach. If it's a blocked month during November then it will hinder the max strength it's capable of reaching. Imagine If a 17 year old starts training at the gym, he wil get mighty strong as he gets older. Whereas if a 50 year old starts training he will never reach his max potential strength as he would of if he had started much earlier in life. The next month will be critical for the northern hemisphere as we head into winter, it's a game changer in my opinion.