Severe Siberian icy blast

All this chopping and changing is giving me heart pulfertations lol!!! Despite what people say, the ecm has clearly led the way in this, the ukmo has also done great especially with the northerly but the ecm spotted the highest to build northeast first.

Wonder what that bomb will do out in the Atlantic?! She could go under if so then a very stuff south-easterly in Fi with troughs edging up from the south

Although the ukmo especially is flatter it's still not 100% done deal, with the cold spells of 09/10 I remember the models having models even at t120 stage then having to backtrack the next run. Not saying it wil happen but it's possible there is still a little wiggle room

Great wedge of high pressure been cut off as we move forward to our north. Looks like a sliding trough about to slice through the main high making it cut off to our north, should be a great fi Edit : what a mess at 192

Steve I don't think Iv ever saw a post from you where your battery power isn't in the red. . . Use a charger!!!! Lol anyway yes the control looks good but Iv had to many false garden paths to look that far, just going by the spread up to t240 it's good news that the op has a fair bit of support, it's more than possible to have an easterly without high Lat blocking , as long as the trough to the south is strong enough to prop her up and squeeze the isobars then there's always the chance that further trough disruption can happen from the lows from the west, once we get energy squeezed under its much easier to make it sustained. The truth is knowone knows who will be right and it's an evolving situation but at least we are finally staring down a loaded gun for the second half of the week at the very least, I really hope we all see some snow and it will make interesting viewing as the days pass.

Not sure I agree. Ok we have double glazing not triple, but good central heating and fires in most houses, -20 will be easier to keep warm than 3c and cold rain, because it's dry cold rather than wet cold. Then I suppose the fact we don't have winter tyres may be a problem, depends if you drive a 4x4 I suppose and how much snow is about but if it's dry air then again it may not be a massive problem. And yes ok elderly will struggle but that's the same in any country, unfortunately it gets the weak, but that's nature unfortunately. Wild life are creatures of instinct and all wild life struggles know matter what country your in, but in the main they cope well, and ones that don't either hibernate or migrate south!

I said this morning about the 12z been more amplified than the 0z. Wonder Whether there's any credence behind this or its just a coincidence of late? Either way the models continue to play the easterly card game!

This is what I found a bit odd to be honest in matts tweet. I suppose some of it has to be continued marketing for his clients. But considering how low amplitude it's been most of the season and the fact we have had several red herrings on the mjo driving the weather is really think he could be setting himself up for egg on face here because iv began to doubt how much impact the mjo has on our weather especially when we have other stronger factors to consider. More especially in the low amp like we have. Granted if we see a upkick into a higher amplitude I would put more weight on it. Anyway this wild card of a winter at least is bringing surprises this year and in sure will continue to do so. I'm beginning to think we may eventually have a true scandi high during last wk of Jan into Feb, especially if we can keep the vortex over Greenland area, if it's tracks toward the Canadian artic it will open all sorts of doors but who knows what wil happen in a week let alone a month!

Fantastic post Steve. I personally really appreciate everyone's efforts on here and Tamara always does very well reasoned posts based on genuine meteorology and makes opinions based on science behind it but the weather makes mugs out of all of us and it really makes us all realise that we are only stil in infancy stages of truly knowing what the weather does and why. It's great trying though but the winter has so far been a complete wild card and continues to be so.

The only thing to note, more of an observation over the last 4/5 days really is the fact that the 0z consistently seems to be the flattest run of the day and the fact that the sceuro high is still there on the 0z could potentially give us at least something to keep an eye on this evening.

But this is it mate, how many eps/ens complete suites do we see promoting cold only to water the pattern down considerably as we move nearer the time? I understand that the fact that all suits are singing the same song at last but I just don't share your optimism at the min, maybe that's because I'm covered in scars from the last failed 1000 attempts but then I guess you are aswel?!

Ukmo looking good there, a northwesterly from Greenland/Canada will be a cold one. Gfs not so good mind!

I suppose if and let's be honest it's a big if because of the timescale involved, but if we get this low into Europe then yes the ridge behind it logically will build north and slow the next areas of low pressure coming from the west, potentially disrupting and slipping under then block that's been allowed to build north. So this slower evolution is pivotal on any winter set up showing its hand but a lot has to go right with this first low slipping southeast into Europe first.

To be fair though unless you really believe a chart at 336 hours away will actually come into fruition then there's no point in even looking at it imo. If charts at t144 are never verifying this year then what hope have the others got? A serious honest analysis in the models are needed as far as I'm concerned and there's absolutely no point in considering anything past t144 as a genuine contender. Sure many will disagree and that's up to you but no more garden paths for me I'm afraid

The continued desperate search for winter continues today and if we manage to find interest in the gem or ukmo 144 chart for potential cold and snow then that really does show how absolutely terrible things are right now. Iv lost faith in every long range suite of models out there, plus anything past 144 in the models. It's been 4 years since the Midlands has had a winter and more than 1cm of snow, that's as bad as iv ever known it in my 33 years of life. So where are we now? We have a mid Atlantic ridge extending over the UK at times bringing the occasional burst of colder air that turns the showers wintery up north on high ground for 24 hours before warmer uppers moves across. We have a strong vortex located across its usual home and although we see troughing in Europe it's too far east for any interest for us desperate folks and any charts showing high pressure to our north west or indeed north east flattern the pattern out as we get closer to t144. The vortex is just too strong and too organised to allow northern blocking and until we see genuine evidence of the vortex having pressure on it with wave 1 or preferably wave 2 attacks come into the reliable then any trop output showing a -NAO/AO I'd be very very wary of. I know that this will probably annoy some on here as it's a bit of rant but to be honest I couldn't care less because it's tiresome having hopes dashed continuously for 4 years for all of us that like cold and snow, I recognise it's only 3rd January but I'm already worn out! Here's hoping for a miracle to turn this winter round because let's be honest, billion pounds worth of computers and all the background teleconnections in the world have done Jack all so far.

What a fantastic start to the day. It's been 4 years (Jan 13) since we saw European deep cold like this And GENUINE northerly blocking, especially March 13 which was a once in 50 year event, but this January really has a different look about it and after the expectations before December ruined it all its nice to see winter crawling back into game, be great to see at least one widespread snow event for us all!

For me personally I really couldn't give a rats ars what it looks like past day 7 because it will always be fragile. It may get a pattern correct but will always play with different options right up until day 4 so know point in getting hung up yet again.

Ecm at t96 looks like it wants to stretch an arm of higher pressure northwest of the uk. Slight variations here and making much more of the short wave to our east. . Could that low pressure to our West slip energy under ? If it does then we can have a sandwich of high pressure to our north and get that shortwave to our east moving south then it's game on

Agreed the gfs is the most boring and mild run iv ever seen with endless sounwesterlies. Never paying attention to long range sh17 again.

Erm not so sure about terrible air quality but this shows how wrong it can go. Fine line between an easterly and africa sourced southerly there!!

Completely agree. That comment there from me is 4 weeks old for some reason every time I go to make a reply it keeps on bringing this post back I had no idea It had done it again hahah what a plonker

My point exactly

But that mean you show firstly if you are absolutely intent on using the mean 300+ hours away which is simply laughable but each to there own you will never stop and that's you choice but it's simply put ridiculous when using something so far away to try to make a valid point in my opionion but just for the crack then ok let's talk about the mean some 300 hrs away. What does it show? A vortex well away from Greenland, with a suggestion of heights north of the uk. It shows the usual home of the vortex is miles away and you can see the push on the vortex with the main core sitting in arctic Canada. Probably the best mean for a while in my view.

But I think genuinely that organisations need to completely stop offering long range forecasts because they look for signals and given the strength of these signals from the 2 best models out there then if this really falls flat on its face then shouldn't this be used as a genuine reason to stop it because I'm sorry it really is painfully embarrassing for all. People go on saying watch toys get thrown etc but in reality the is a weather forum where enthusiasts heir there views and listen to the professionals for guidance and for it to collapse on the second day of winter is absolutely atrocious I'm afraid. This isn't me throwing toys out its me simply saying what everyone's thinking. Of course it's not a done deal yet but it's just blooming typical that this happens time after time. The crum of comfort here been that we can't trust any signal or any forecast that says cold or mild in 6 wks time etc and the weather makes mugs out of everyone and we wil just have to wait and see which to be fair is the better more exciting way in my opinion anyway.

In sorry but 2 very very different charts there. The only resemblance is the PV lobe in siberia the arctic high on the gem is in adifferent position to the ecm and the PV is much more organised on the ecm. Along with the fact on one we have scandi high and a mid Atlantic high with the UK under cold and the other one is a standard westerly mild pattern.