Severe Siberian icy blast

I don't get how uppers of -5/6 from the east , can only produce snow turning to rain as the morning progresses according the bbc news 24 iv just watched . Starts off as a good band of snow then a few hours later it's all rain ? Baffles me . No doubt yet another warm sector . But this year continues to be very very frustrating

As posted in southeast thread the wind vectors at 700hpa is showing a shift slightly which explains the move in direction . So it is moving south west it's official lol

Yes definately building again over Worcester , With a push southwest aswel

It's definately back building somewhat over Worcester area with a push southwest rather than South .

What the hell is happening ?!!!

What the HELL is happening !!! What the HELL is happening !!!

Lol can't believe the met have done that . Looks like I was right ! Let's see what develops through the night !

How about if we all get a battering and there's an upper trough moving southwest that's developing and none of the models have picked up on ! Back In the day that would happen aswel just not now !

If you knew me you would no I'm always the optimist , and the optimism that's in me is looking at the radar and seeing the area of snow not only heading our way but building and back building with a little band behind it growing and the band growing to the northern side of it toward Stoke ! Maybe we will get a battering and all the models are wrong LOLA ! Back in the day they was , just not anymore

No that would only make a difference on the costal areas themselves , come in land and it would be fine .The only thing warmer waters would do is pep up the showers which would work in our favour .

Just what I said . 6c and sleet and rain showers tomorrow and wed . How cold to the uppers have to be to get snow . -5 850's use to be the bench mark. Especially easterly winds . They must be wrong surely

Considering this week is meant to be a week with reall cold air above the bbc weather talking rain and sleet showers into the afternoon of tomorrow and Wednesday? Is it really impossible to get some real cold in this country without things been marginal ?

On inspection the gfs isn't far away from the 06 , certainly better than the 0z , granted it's not far enough North but it will certainly be cold and a very gentle East breeze will keep it cold. It won't take much of a shift northeast to produce a very cold run . I think there's tentative signs today to move things northwards and just got a feeling we may see a colder set of ens coming up.

Agreed. It doesnt match up at all . For instance France has a strong bitter East wind with +8 uppers !! There's a problem with the data clearly .

Just goes to show how blocked a pattern can be . Wether we get a mid lat high over us or a Scandi high we still have blocked conditions . But once a Scandi high sets up shop they can very very hard to shift , even right out in la la land we still have a very similar set up. I don't pretend to know what would happen in a weeks time but good to see this been modelled , it shows it's feeseble. Remember the gefs are the old run so really need to look at the gfs and the gefs as 2 different models rather than taking them as one . They run off different resolutions so can't relate them .

Certainly a different scenario with extremely cold uppers heading our way . Wouldn't take much for a low to drop into the atlanitc and push up against the block along with that low pressure over far north siberia to drop South . Very different !

Steve the difference is the vortex up above . The votes back then was prime for amplification but the projected pattern in 10 days time is for a much developed vortex ? Not sayin it will happen like this but simply highlighting the difference

Woke up to an inch at 4am , a bit of sleet since but turns readily to snow when gets heavy. A slight thaw but nothing really . Been up ever since . And I have to got work at 7am to open the shop lol not sure how many punters want there hair cut this morning mind !!!

What the fffffff???? Iv just woke up to nearly 2 inches and it's throwing it down and the radar is full of . Epic fail by the met . I said in the mid thread that the ppn over northwest England has the mids name on it

Just to clarify this warmer sector is by no means as strong as last night , just had a good scroll through the euro4 and uppers never go lower than -4/5 , thickness looks ok to me , due points -0 and very very briefly 1c . That could be ok given surface temps are at the lowest by then , could be down to evaporative cooling but I expect that to be snow . Also just watched the bbc weather and there graphics for 11pm are 100% wrong . The ppn to our northwest has got the Midlands name on it . It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this ppn would have to make a dramatic u turn to make it to the east . Maybe the stuff up north toward eastern Scotland will stretch down the East side of uk , that's more feeseble but if that lot doesn't fizzle then it's coming our way .

It's all pie in the sky at the minute . But there's a a portion of ensembles and operational runs across the board that is toying with the idea of an easterly next wk. it depends on everything coming together , it's more than feeseble though . If the Iberian low depends somewhat , then that will help not only strengthen the high , but give the opportunity of a stronger push from the East . Along with throwing small scale features North into the flow . As always it's in the minority for now , but it's certainly got some meat on the bones. Been February , it's the the month in the winter where statistically the Atlantic is at its quietest in the three winter months . I genuinely do not see an Atlantic driven feb . Seasonal Wave lengths begin to widen through feb , the westerly natural flow over the polar regions driving the vortex also begins to loosen somewhat . So all to play for really moving forward . Certainly feeling better about things !

As in rinse and repeat ? Trough to our South with the Atlantic cut off ?

Lol Fergi you can't make comments like that In here it'll get you a warning !Iv saw very little snow in 2 years and beginning to combust so please send some snow to us snow starved obsessed freaks !!!!

Blooming eck that's a fairly decent set of ens there . Easterly certainly been sniffed at by the models . Just would love a week of freezing easterlies and a front moving up against it from the south . That has to be on the table at least for now one would of thought with low pressure over Europe set to remain in situ it's got to be even split between 3 options : easterly : mid lat high with our name on it . : re amplification of the pattern to our west as Nick Sussex has shown us . Which would keep the door open to our north/northeast ?

Well that sounds grim to be honest . Mid February and the jet running North of uk with high pressure to South , that's put an end to my fanthom easterly then . If that's really the case and winter whistles away again then considering all the potential since autumn this will be another rubbish winter with no high lat blocking for a second year on the trot