Severe Siberian icy blast

I no it would be frustrating , the same happened in 2013 , with a segment left over Greenland , but as I remember once we can detach the low off the weak segment over Greenland then it has no fuel and simply runs out in the Atlantic , given the -QBO then you would think once we get into jan , the vortex weakens with seasonal movements , so even with weak high pressure cells AKA jan 2013 then it shouldn't be too difficult to have some fun ! Famous last words there !

Yes Iv read this aswell , If you get a compact vortex. With the AO in posit e territory , then a SSW as they are very dramatic with a sudden burst of heat in the middle of the vortex , it acts like a trigger bomb and can blow the vortex up , with fragments of the pv flying out and very difficult to predict where they land . Very similar to a bomb going off really .Where's as if you get an already disorganised vortex , with warm high pressure cells in place in the artic , then a SSW will have much less of an impact , with warmer air already in place , there's less to blow up as it were . Put a bomb in the middle of the city and watch it cause devestaion . Put a bomb in a field with nothing round it , much less of an impact will be evident !

Lol like you say Ian it's really because in winter time we chase the freeze, and generally it comes from the ease , so if there's signs of cold to our East , we can try our hardest to put a twist on it and give us yet another false hope of an easterly! A little bit more to it than that maybe but in all honesty that's the nuts and bolts of it I think !!

So really we need to see flux charts actually beginning to point polward? And yes the other factor you said . By judging by that a SSW is not really on the horizon ? I mean at least at not in model terms ? I'm sure once the wave breaking can start progressing again via the siberian high we will see things move forward . Shame we'v had a fly in the ointment so far . Just delayed rather than postponed I'm guessing ??

You obviously know nothing about him then cause you couldn't be more wrong . His a good hardworking amature weather enthusiast/forecaster , he merely is just pointing out what the CFS is pointing to and looking for trends . He states it's just for fun , he does very comprehensive and realistic videos based on what data he has available . Maybe you should do your research on him first before commenting ?

Iv had trouble PM' people since I started , I just can't seem to find out how to do it ! It must be eyes but I can never see the option in my profile ? Someone point me in the right direction please ?I thought u were not feeling well Carl , but remeber tomorrow is another day , and the only thing in our power to change is the future . . . Keep smiling !! Winter is coming on a steam train all the way from Siberia !!!

Frosty I have to say I find this very confusing , it was only yesterday you were posting lots of cold charts saying snow was on the way for some . I no the weather can be fustrating in the winter for us snow lovers but in reality things are looking a lot better this year than last , completely different actually , don't be blinded by low hights over Greenland and think that's it for another month , things are changing , and I get the feeling sooner rather than later , the bench mark has always been set to be around Xmas time and this hasn't changed , in the mean time we have some cold zonality , interesting squally showers at times with a bit of the White stuff chucked in at times for good measure . We all expected to have a zonal spell of weather . And re the met o forecast . . . I'm not sure whether you'v read the met o winter expectations ? It was posted a few days ago on here , the main reason why they've gone for a +nao this year is because they have faith in there own model , although they freely agree that all the signals are pointing to the opposite , they also speak about an expected SSW a little later in the season , so really not a mild outlook at all Carl . Keep your chin up buddy 😄

Much better amplification on this run which is in itself surprising being 06z , When compared to the 0z you can see the difference in the pattern , vortex also looks like it's weakening somewhat with low hights draining from Greenland . Models are beginning to show signs of moving toward a more blocked outlook toward the last 3rd of the month , also on this run the siberian high is much more of a player than recently , it's March west has begun , more importantly is the removal of Asian low hights , with the return of the Siberian high will allow wave activity to resume again , which of course bodes well for further down the line , still the Xmas period is bench marked as what could be a very interesting period synopticaly at the very least .

Yes some very good matches there to see where we are at present , all very interesting , and like you say some very tentative but early signs of the change toward mid month , maybe this time next week things will start very different In the models ?

You know what that really bought a smile to my face , I love it when we all pull together and help out , everyone mucks in and turns a desperate situation into a good laugh . Back on sat 18th December 2010 , I was living in my first house in the Cotswolds with my now brother in law , we was in chelt , because we knew we should stay on low ground as we really needed our cars the next day , but typical Leah(my now wife!) told me she had something up at the house she needed for the next day so me and Ryan (bro in law) went on the journey , conditions rapidly deteriated as we drove up into the Cotswolds on the A40 , but it was so beautiful to see obviously me been a complete snow lover ! We couldn't resist the chance to have a cheeky "one" in our local , which turned into 2 , with chicken and chips in a basket . . . Mmmmm !! We watched from the window for an hour in the warm pub with the open fires , the blizzard , with smow rapidly building , with a good 10 inches already down , we decided we should get moving , as we got back on the A40 people were jacknifing their lorries , cars were stuck in the deep snow , so we decided to stop and help an elderly guy , so we pushed him free, we then stayed there for an hour and a half trying to help everyone , once we got back into the car we realised we ourselves were stuck and began to try and push ourselves out of it but to no evail , so we abandoned our car and began the long walk into chelt , thankfully some random stranger pulled over in there 4x4 and picked us up and took us to chelt , we all had a good laugh and a good old drink that evening talking about our shininagans !! Makes good stories and will never forget that memorable day .

I'm completely bemused why you post charts day after at t384 ?If there is background noise to show its hand , when ever do you see it start at the 384 timeframe and work forward day by day? Always it will suddenly show its hand in the 2(something) hundred hours . So if the postage stamps at day 6 show some interest. Why would you even look any further into fi out the reliable timeframe ? Firstly we don't need a SSW to bring cold to uk , it helps yes sure . But there are instantces when the Scandi high marches west bringing easterlies . Theres troughs dropping into Europe bringing colder conditions without high lat blocking . Then there's what were looking at the next week when we see polar air coming down from the northwest . With the Siberian high gaining strength again next wk , we all watch out for changes aloft as its expected to have a knock on effect down the line , pumping warmer air into the polar regions , renewing wave activity , and hence forth effecting the tropospheric pattern there after . There's no point in cherry picking fi charts before models have an idea of what's even happening next wk .

Quite agree there Nick , also the changes regarding the Siberian ridge is quite stark don't you think ?particualry last nights 144 next to today's 120? All in quite an interesting period of weather coming up with some polar maritime air creeping in more frequently next week may well throw a few surprises, I no Cheshire gap streamers can have quite a dramatic effect for the west midlanders when the conditions are ripe , and feel particualy at night there may well be some action . With things slowly moving forward regarding the dropping of the Asian low been replaced by high pressure backing west again , should allow the next cycle of the SAI to show its hand as we move through the month , maybe just delayed by 10 days of so from the initial expectations .

Blimey that was one hell of a forecast though lol one can hope hey

That's a relief I must say . I would like to just paste this from what Roger J smith has said in the winter thread hope he doesn't mind. ("The cut-off high (surface and upper level) over far northern Russia and adjacent Arctic Ocean (1054 mb, 82N 95E) is very unusual. An inspection of same date maps in the wetterzentrale archives (1871 to 2013) shows only four cases where a high stronger than 1030 mb was located north of 70N in that general area. Four cases include 1916, 1928, 1946, and 1966. The 1946 case led to a similar looking strong high on 6-7 Dec which then sank southwest into Russia. Although there were a few weak analogues this particular case is still 15-20 mb stronger and is thus outside the general range of normal atmospheric variability. A singularity. We have already seen another very unusual situation in eastern North America about ten days back with the massive snow squall regime. One wonders what other singularity features this winter may have in store. Although the near term is locked into cold zonal patterns for Britain and Ireland, there could be a rather fast transition to northern blocking as models may not have a very firm handle on where this super-strong blocking high drifts. The 00z (and previous) model consensus was that it would just weaken in place and feed across the pole to build up a Greenland high, but it is conceivable that a stronger feature will remain in place and drift towards northern Scandinavia in ten to fifteen days. Once the deep low passes around the 9th-10th, the door might open for very cold air to surge south(west) towards you. A placid and rather mild looking circulation pattern developing over west-central North America would support this development by anchoring ridges at about 110W and 40W as well as 30-50E. However, other evolutions are possible and the solution may be continued cold zonality or a weak return to milder for a while. It seems likely that with this massive blocking in place at very high latitudes, the winter is very unlikely to pass without a significant cold outbreak towards Western Europe .") In my very basic understanding what this does with the low pressure lifting out of the area that's caused concern is it enables the massive SAI to resume its feedback propegation again , so it really just delayed the feedback mechanisms somewhat . Once this high pressure can reassert itself over Siberia and link up with the polar high then there's nothing to really stop cold air heading Southwest over Europe . With the return of high pressure over Siberia it will also aid wave activity again so once the vortex begins to take another hit maybe in the 2 wk frame ? Then we should start to see things move again , so maybe look for vortex disruption occur toward the 17/18th of dec? But a significant warming not occurring untill early January ? Remeber a SSW is the holy grail if looking for complete vortex destruction , but with the other background signals so widely talked about this year (won't mention them now as covered in many winter forecasts ) we can attain a disrupted vortex with relative ease as we saw during November , which although doesn't guarentee cold , does given the fact we are now in winter give us a much better chance than we had Nov . So watch for the March west of cold through Europe around the 17/18 of December ?

No it wasn't , I remeber watching the local Midlands weather forecast and they headlined in big bold letters , a BBQ summer this year , it was followed by the wettest summer in 100 yrs , the met have been so wrong in the past it's been a catasrophe , everyone sticks up for them like we are offending people but In reality when someone consistently forecasts something , and then the opposite happens , not just once but lots of occasions , then they become a laughing stock . There every day forecasts are bang on , and their monthly ones aren't bad either , but there's reasons why they stopped doing LRF's , because it was embarrassing them . I'm not hating on them , I'm just saying it as I see it , and there probability maps are no better . But when it comes to weekly/daily forecasts , knowone can touch them .

The thing about the anomaly charts is like all computer models , once they pick up on a new signal , they do change drastically , Iv seen lots of times the anomaly charts showing a Scandi high for example for a time period of say 6-10 day period , then a few days later they pick upon new signal and they change accoranly, before the Scandi hight rise was even due to take place , so it picked up a false signal .Not saying thats gonna happen now of course , particuarly as we are expecting a more Atlantic type period , but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Scandi high become big player again in the 7-12 day range from now , especially as December progresses with the SAI feedback propergation moves forward a fase . This is the other point I wanted to make , considering the vortex is at a weakened state this year , especially higher up the strat , it means the vortex is not doing the same dictatorship this time round like it was last year , so we can have a major pattern change that's trop led rather than strat led. So if we can get some decent amplification downstream , pump some WAA into the polar regions then there's nothing to say that warm air can infiltrate the strat from the bottom up , as a suppose to top to bottom . So we really just need to keep watching for signals in the models , knowing its only a matter of time untill we see the wave activity pick up again and this time the Scandi high should force itself further west with cold air much more likely on the second round to put Europe in the freezer . Tick tock tick tock

As always a very informative and interesting forecast . Netweather forecasts in general do quite well , and get the general picture normally correct , last year aside of course but nobody saw that coming . All the best with the success , I'm touting for a very interesting season myself , it's as interesting as the 2012/13 forecast , which really was better than the reality , but in the main a very good synoptic year that was . Bar the failed dec easterly ! Let it snow let it snow let it snow ! . . .

Chiono I may barking up the wrong tree here , in distribution of low and high pressure terms would be , I would say the Greenland trough pushing South of the uk , the Azores high drifting up towards Greenland , and the Scandi high driving North And west , pushing into the polar regions but linking up with the sister high pressure over Greenland , with the main trough over Southern Europe becming cut off ??? Please tell me how I'm doing there !

Morning carinthin , I have never bought into the Atlantic taking charge , although that really is what we all should expect given the time of year , but it just goes to show how different the set up is this year , to have a Scandi high so powerful so early having this much influence on brittish weather is quite unusual for November/December , I think we all should expect maybe a week or so the Scandi high easing its grip somewhat (wanning) as Tamara explained , but looking at the output this morning we can see the strength of the blocking isn't really going anywhere , looking at 2 charts It's easy to see , firstly we have WWA straight into the Artic , the high really is very strong , we have the low pressure systems grinding to halt and really trying there best to dig south , then looking at the jet steam , it splits in 2 pieces , the small arm going direct North and the other main arm going South infact almost been forced back on itself . You would expect once the low pressure systems goes south the high to the north East will strengthen , and exert more influence on us , particuarly with the continued warm air into polar regions , it looks very interesting to say the least and feel December may well trend cold very quickly .

No probs mate. What I would give for that , true lake affect snow is the most exciting weather on earth . At least this year we have a winter full of potential , we're in a good place this time round at least , nice to see genuine pointers this year , whereas last year really was hope casting from me and everyone else I think ! Iv been a quiet so far but everyone is doing such a fantastic job of analysing the situ I really haven't felt the need yet ! Roll on December now

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/snowfall-covers-large-portion-us-26990202?from=related O my days watch this

A lot of effort has gone into it so I appreciate the work . However to base a forecast on SST's and solar cycle alone is in my opinion naive . If you build a house with lots of insulation put in the walls , a nice log burner and Central heating , but forget to put the windows in it simply won't keep you warm . No matter how well you do everything else . His basing a forecast solely on one or two factors and missing out some extremely vital other components in my opinion . But fair play to him what ever floats your boat I suppose.

Guys without wanting to sound out of line here iv just read through the best part of a page of one liners and daft questions been asked taking Eds comments out of context a little bit . The strat thread is globally respected and used by people all over the world , so to protect its reputation can we not limit the updates to the ones who have made this topic so hot ? For me I look forward every morning to waking up and checking the update , and this morning woke up to clutter . Sorry to sound a miserble git I'm not , I just don't want the good nature of the thread ruined . Mods delete if feel the need

The only thing that is kind of worrying to me is the lack of snow over Norway etc , yes it's well developed in Eurasia and Central Russia , but this next wk or so really is quite mild across Europe in general , and Norway and parts of Scandi is still quite bare , but I undertand it's more about the October build up of snow that's important ?

I looked through the 2009 strat thread a few days back and you were talking a fair bit about the Canadian warming as the risk was there . Although if I'm right in saying the Canadian warnings don't have the same tropospheric response ? I was thinking as long as the warming can work its way down the strat then will it not significantly weaken the vortex over toward Greenland area ?