Severe Siberian icy blast

I think judging by the radar we are in for an interesting day. Any heavier bursts could see snow down to lower levels. Quite a lot of action over the east thats growing in strength

Lol iv literally just asked the question in the strat thread. With strong wave 2 in the near time that looks like verifying for once things look by far the best they have all season. Il be extremely surprised if we dont see a flip in the output in the next 5 days or so. Its really the best news yet as far as the strats concerned. I recognise its frustrating for people all this strat talk an nothing happening but the current split we have is as a result of the strat activity and we just missed out but Europe has been freezing as a result. So I get the feeling we may well be about to see the retrograde number 3 tamara has mentioned. If we can get a decent split from the activity the past 3 wks then this one coming up may well be a final goodbye from the vortex once we get the next week out the way. That leaves a good 4/5 weeks opportunity of cold and snowy weather to make its presence shown.

Ok but then that kind of goes against the whole trop/strat relations doesnt it? Because powerfull wave 2 along with a split vortex surely should have an effect on the trop output in some way regarding a split ? But yet all we see is one big powerful troposphere vortex

The thing is with such strong wave activity forecast and not in the far reaches of fi , along with a decent reversal in zonal winds , when will the models begin to show these affects in our trop outlook ? Because at the minute apart from a sniff of it las night on ECM 12's we appear to be staring down the barrel of doom ! We can see from the charts matt posted there's a decent split aswel , but yet either them charts are plain wrong or we are about to see a major flip in the models ?

I have just shone a touch out and it's sleety snow. Very wet but on the turn !

Completely agree cc . The wave activity is there for all to see on the ecm and that should rock the vortex again especially given the time of year. Im going for a week of atlantic starting friday then all change. Time will tell

You know full well that you posting charts on the last frames from gfs is absolutely ridiculous , and unless you have a crystal ball how the hell does that equate to late feb?The ECM looks very different in the strat forecasts with the vortex completely leaving Canada/Greenland but you choose the show the fickle gfs . I seriously think people need to chill out a bit before writing the whole of feb off before we'v entered it . Nobody can tell what's in the pipeline beyond day 7 I don't care who you are . The weather changes everyday and the computer models are only computers.

There is signs of a change in the strat from the ECM in the last 2 runs guys , decent wave 1/2 showing up with the vortex draining to Siberia and leaving Canada/Greenland finally. It's 8 days away so don't get excited , but at least it's something to watch in the next week , anything is better than what we have now guys.

Ridiculous I know but the last 2 charts on ECM shows the Russian high back west and cold air flooding into Europe again , with the positioning on the low pressure with a negative tilt looks like it could begin to undercut. All change in 12 hours though I expect .

This has and continues to be the most horrible , wet , windy winter Iv ever experienced , every cold spell gets downgraded to nothing. This week at the worst was meant to be at least cold with wintry weather over high ground , we now have just rain forecast apart from the ski resorts in Scotland , although I recognise we have feb to go yet , I'm at the point where I just can't wait wait to see the back of it now. Hope for a nice summer and look forward to next winter , after all we all no how quick time goes by .

The thing is I always notice once the models pick up on something (ie Atlantic influence , or indeed easterly elements , aka last 5 days ) models always over react to a trend , the last 2 days is no different , they blow the block away for fun , only to settle on something more reasonable a few days on , even the last 3 wks with a trough disrupting 100 miles east of us , although it hadn't benefitted us as a country , it's still reminded us how strong the blocking has been , now bring that west 100 miles , (exactly what's happening this week) then that brings the possibility of much more interesting weather , surely that's always been a very realistic idea? Why people believe model output that's over t144 away is beyond me what ever signals may appear to offer. How about the fact that the weather is changing all the time , especially now with decent wave activity this next week, that at least gives optimism ? It does with me anyway , I personally think that disruption and energy heading southeast is a good bet , especially given the deep cold over Europe . That's in my opinion where we need to be looking .

Sorry but your getting confused with your own country we have barley seen a snow flake all winter and are still waiting .

Your posting mean charts for the middle of feb when we aren't even in it yet ? That's ridiculous . The mean charts the other day were showing undercutting and snow , with Siberian air at t144 . Did that happen? No . So why even try and make a forecast on weather 2.5 weeks away?

What I find bizarre is a few days ago every models had us going toward a cold spell , it looked inevitable , but it never got any closer than t120 , now we have a zonal picture been painted at t144+ and everybody thinks it's happening know matter what ? Does knowbody look at the background signals ??? Why the hell does everybody throw toys out prams when it doesn't show what they want ? I understand the frustration to a point but if you look toward the pro's on hear they all talk of a much brighter outlook currently been painted today . Yes we may have to get through another zonal spell , but so what , it may only be a few days , all background signals are pointing toward a blocked cold February . Charts at t144 and later have as much chance of verifying as they did 5 days ago showing bitter easterlies . Which makes them fickle. Thankfully the met o didn't go screaming from the roof tops about bitter cold and snow like most wanted them too on hear . Don't get down when we all know how quick things change , and we are on day 1 of a coldish week and the breakdown is 5 days away , but yet people talk of weather 7 days away like it's written on the wall. The ensembles are crap guys as bad as anything else , otherwise we would be in the freezer like they all showed included the ECM ens , the other day . Take a step back and chill out my fellow weather enthusiasts .

Yes big differences upstream over the poles , hight rises toward Greenland quite early on , very interesting run actually. Told you there would be changes , once the models get to grips with the pattern change along with the wave 2 forecast in a weeks time I think we will be in for some real eye candidate this week.

The thing is nothing mate nothing is written on the wall yet , trough disruption looks the way forward but things are so volatile I wouldn't be surprised to see another change on the way

That's ridiculous , read the strat thread. Many changes occuring in the near term, we have a cold week to look forward to that's as far as we dare to go

Not really, the gfs and ECM yes , but how reliable is anything past t144? Not worth the time to even look at to be honest at the minute. Not sure why but the ECM is wild recently with its inconsistency , which is not like the ECM , but I do feel we are about to see yet another flip in the models to a much more blocked pattern, with the scandi high much more prominent , this week there will snow about . Also there is good wave 1/2 activity in the next week and that will be the final blow to the vortex I think.

Yes I was just thinking that myself , ECM aside which is dogs dinner and well and truly lost the plot again but all other models , including gem which synoptically is brilliant , has stepped toward a more blocked pattern this mooring , but really guys don't even bother looking further than t144 at min apart from pattern developments, because things are changing everyday at the minute .But In the mean time we have a good cold week with sleet and snow around .

As inconsistent as the ECM has been again recently , if this is the worst run of the morning Then as a trend and nothing more I would snap your arm off for it I think , northern blocking and a split vortex going forward seems to be agreed across the board in one way or another . It means nothing at this stage of course for our little island. But the JMA and the ukmo are very consistent with there modelling and by far the coldest , given the time of year you would expect Europe's temperature to be similar to what the UKMO is showing rather than anything else , but that's not to be taken for granted I suppose . But all in all a good start to the day . A good week coming up and good things to look forward to .

Indeed frosty taking the mean at face value there is fantastic support there for a very snowy set up , yes it's risky as these situations always are but with cold embedded air , we have low pressure across the uk on 3 successive days , with low pressure steaming southeast across uk , if that turns to be correct with embedded cold air next wkend Into the following week really could be epic indeed . I realise there's a long way to go but what an exciting outlook we have !

Yes but just look at that deep low about to drop through the middle stopping the Azores from spoiling the fun , AKA snowmagedon next Saturday anyone?

He means the "potential" for disruption snow guys , not a given but potential.

Better angle of high pressure , stronger better aligned easterly coming in. Azores ridge further north than on the 0z at t96. We await the rest of you sir ukmo .

Hahahahahaha that's hilarious lol , I'm sat in my shop on my tod laughing my head off. I'm about to give the mrs a nervous breakdown next wk lol lets hope she moves out so I can have all lot round mine for a good old sledge session/drinking sess lol