Severe Siberian icy blast

As nice as that that is to read Ian , it's stil nearly a week away and much can change , been a westerly flow its certainly unusual , but there is time for the cold to be downgraded nearer the time , because like you say the air is very much colder than a normal westerly . Let's hope it keeps up the snow signals

I'm very realistic about what to expect thankyou. Iv not ramped up cold this winter , Iv been very realistic all winter. Everybody knows this winter has been about patience and still is . The facts are the pattern going forward is very very different to December , I'm not gonna bother to go through everything again , have a look at my previous posts if interested , I was merely commenting on the way the chart pushed the very strong arctic high out the way very very easily , when experience tells me even taking this last week as an example that models time and time again underestimate the block , especially when it's t144 plus . It looked an unrealistic jump from a fairly -AO to a much more positive one . Iv not ramped up a freeze , but I'm a lot more positive than some on hear and certainly don't jump from ecstasy to depression in the matter of 12 hours like some. I know what pattern we're in ,and know how to spot trends and "potential" pattern changes, and taking everything into account I think the next 6 wks is gonna be a lot more entertaining than the last .

O yes that's exactly right , I have no clue and no point.Look for yourself and them make your conclusion . I'm going from experience , and it doesn't take a genius to see it's far too progressive and unrealistic

I would like to take a minute to highlight the ECM a minute where I think it looses the plot . This is the 144 chart Notice the high pressure the northeast has a core of 1040. Everything looking good going forward , yes a distinct vortex toward Canada ,but it looks poised to head toward a wintry pattern from there , but instead we go to this we still have a very strong high but it's sinking , and the vortex is between the two pieces is rapidly joining forces again , yes we still have energy going southeast but it's game over from that point in my opinion , but it's far too progressive in the way it dictates the sinking of the high pressure .

But the progressive nature between 144 and 168 looks a bit extreme to me to be honest , gets rid of that polar -AO in a flash. Anything just past 144 is just for fun

Iv actually been following the warming from the t384 and watched come forward , it starts around the 26th and carries on for about 5days fairly strong , now as we know the modelled -AO to develop next week is courtesy of minor warmings already happened , and the one to come is stronger than the last ones , although I'm sure if it excited you then we would of known about it ! But given the time of year , weakening westerly wavelengths and a natural moderating of the polar vortex , do you think we stand a good chance of having a dramatic flip in the models over the next 2 weeks ? Really keen to know your thoughts ed ? Thanks

Bad early on as the low pressure next week doesn't detach from the vortex like it did on the 06 but roll it forward a few hours and the second one middle of next week does and we have a favourable profile picture and week hights to the north across Iceland . Think we will see a good fi coming up.

Glad to see the thread much more positive than yesterday , what is up with Monday blues huh?! Yes models looking loaded with potential , (sorry about the crap pic) Split vortex , Stratosphere warmings coming into the reliable Scandi high pressure , cold Europe , fronts diving into Europe , cold Atlantic somehow ! What could go wrong ?!!!! Easy for me to dress it up , the first time this season things are looking genuinely good. Plenty of hurdles to over come , but plenty of things working in our favour aswel , very interesting times . . . . Finally !

Yes I agree , I think ideally we need the massive high to migrate west somewhat , but even as it is if you look at the last chart on the ECMNot that it would look like that come the time , but the low pressure system to south of Greenland the only way for that to head is south east , with cold uppers in place that would be high reward although risky I would say . I'm encouraged by the strength of the high , it's mighty and strong and that really would dictate the pattern , and it's an evolving pattern that starts at t144 so the building blocks are in place for a very different pattern going into February . Not immediate cold and snow but a building block going forward .

So you really think the met outlook is zonal for 4-6 wks ? If you read Ian's post he stated the colder spells mean they could well mean continental air , plus even if he didn't say anything on that , just because the 16-30 dayer on the met sounds grim , I would never take note , because anything past 5 days is fickle and know model in the world can predict a forecast that far out , and they can and do change in the blink of an eye. I think it's good you have eased off the dramatic posts recently , but it'd be nice if you could be balanced for once. Back to the models .The gfs 18 is much slower in the Atlantic train , much more akin with the jma , and as the -AO is still evolving rest assured the models will chop and play around with different solutions over the next week , but the tide is turning , and feb looks the best month for cold and snow potential given the seasonal wave lengths , weaker vortex , slower jet (eventually ) and a freezing Europe .

Morning mate, I'm really happy to see the models correcting westwards this morning , it has to be the first time this year the gfs showing the block to be a lot stronger than anticipated , normally because of its progressive nature it hurdles the lows straight through , but it has to be said it's been right a lot this year because of the strength of the vortex , but it's good to see , because of this it makes me think its definitely onto something with regards this weekend , and because of this it effects the whole set up going forward and the scandi high dominates our weather in some way or another. Of course aided by the -AO set up , which also shows up well on the ECM in its later frames .It's possible the reason why we saw progressive models this wkend just gone is because they had only just picked up on the strong arctic plunge into the states which therefore fuels the Atlantic , with the PV the strength it is , it over egged everything in sending us back toward a zonal outlook , we often see the models do this . Pick up on something (in this case the massive -AO signature ) drop it , (in response to another trend been picked upon , in this case the ramp of the jet ) only to pick back up on the original idea , but with a better handling of the pattern .So to summarise if I were to make a forecast I would go with the front disrupting this wkend pushing southeast into Europe , with snow a distinct possibility for many , (remember Europe is becoming cold now finally so any southeast flow could well be enough for snow, ie similar to last years set up ) then into next week, fronts following suit , undercutting giving us a continental influence , I'm much more positive of things now going to February and I'm happy with the gfs coming on bored .

I think for me that's the key there , Europe is about to go much much colder , not just Scandinavia/Russia like this week , we all know the models underestimate the strength of the block on many occasions and already we can see this scandi high is not going anywhere , for the last 3 days or so we have saw troughing over the uk , if France was cold then our weather would of been much different to what we'v saw , so I think once we can get Europe cold we may well be seeing much better weather at the surface . It concerns me somewhat regarding the strength of the Canadian vortex , the jet looks angry , and the Azores that I thought would be our friend and ridge north and block doesn't look to be modeled too much at the minute , at least we have a -AO setting up and know doupt that will continue to cause havoc with the output , we really need to see the vortex loosen its grip over the next 10 days but the Synoptics over America don't look favourable . But then given the strat warming coming then that should help distort further , feb really is make or break for our winter . . . .

Hi Ian , it sounds like it's all for grabs at the minute , so given the potential easterly , is it still by means of this scandi ridge ? Because to me background signals given the enormous east pacific amplification seems to favour a potential -NAO in the 10-15 day period , i mentioned it days ago and now certain models beginning to show the pattern change firstly in the -AO , then with ridging into greenlands been met from both sides (ie polar high meeting Azores ) of course it's very tentative at the minute but I'm convinced that's where we could be heading . So my question is do you see the scandi ridge as a big player in the 2wk period , or do you see it coming from the -AO setting up leading to possible Greenland hight rises ? Really interested to hear your thoughts Ian . Thanks

It's all very fickle at the minute as it's so far out but one would assume with the vortex weakening , February is when the Atlantic dies of death , along with AO signature that looks like setting up , without looking at the ECM ens , the most likely scenario from that point would be for northern blocking to take hold , so not too worried at the minute about the ECM because post t144 it's been absolutely woeful , only last night was it looking like an easterly developing only to completely vanish from this mornings output, which leads me to my next point.After all the drama regarding the scandi high will it/won't it push west , I think if we were gonna stand a realistic chance of having it then we would see all models latch onto it for next wk by now , yesterday we were looking very close to snow event next wk and that's without the easterly , but now that's more or less gone this morning as the whole pattern gets shunted east , I think it's a case of the models over estimating the block once again to be honest , I really hope I'm wrong but just can't see it . But I also think we need to be looking post day 10 for a very interesting February , a negative AO with a southerly jet stream and northern blocking around Greenland into the arctic is my guess , aided originally by the significant east pacific ridge giving lots of amplification , with the Azores high playing a part ridging north a aswel. All to play for looking at feb , but this scandi high is becoming a nuisance . We may see a flip again tonight and I hope we do but can't see it .

Very -AO setting up , high pressure moving south over the pole towards Greenland , means one thing , southerly jet .

Whilst I agree with what your saying , there is also denying the ukmo/ECM is what I would call zonal, very progressive with taking the depressions east , on the plus side , there's not any more chance of them been right than they were 12 hours ago , but If we're to stand a chance of snow next week then we urgently need a correction west because the models will agree on it and settle on it in the next 24hrs or so .

Well firstly , thankyou for sharing your understanding with us all , I always look for your updates and I'm very impressed as to how accurate your thoughts have been so far this winter , and sobering as your thoughts have been , it's always kept my feet well and truly grounded .What I also know is a ramp when I see one !! And I'm not suggesting that's what you've just done , but it's also easy to see your thoughts are beginning to swing ?! Patience had certainly been required this winter , but I do finally see things changing , right on que with chiono's winter forecast actually , regarding the second half of winter , I do think many underestimated the vigorous vortex aiding the jet stream this year when the final winter forecast was made , because many people went for a very dry December , dominated by mid latitude blocking , but we know things didn't turn out like that . But what was clear from the beginning was , with +QBO , solar maximum , cold stratosphere , and limited SSI , that this winter was going to be slow burner , and chiono excellently predicted the scandi high to become a major player as the winter progresses , and it clearly is . As the vortex is (although quite strong still) on the ropes from the recent wave 1/2 activity , along with the fact it's past it's sell by date , it's only going to weaken further over the next month , along with the fact we have a much stronger warming in the pipe line (consistently showing in fi and getting closer) , it does look like we have a much better chance of seeing winter finally show its face as we head toward feb, lets not forget march can be nothing other than an extended winter month given the right Synoptics . So It does look like the tide has turned somewhat , and next week looks like some of us may see our first snow fall of the season . Once we can get cold air in place , then things can look very different very quickly with the models , and I genuinely believe we will begin to see the models move toward undercutting scenarios over the next 5/6 days . Interesting times and good to see the MORGREPS sniffing the coffee again .

Oh I don't think it's the fact know ones awake to it , it's just we're all burnt 2,3,4 times so very sceptical at minute , but I have to say the output today looks good , ECM and ukmo looking interesting , I think we are actually fairly close to a snow event next wk ? Uppers look very marginal , especially the ukmo , but the ECM looks very close , what do you think?Also looking at the gfs fi for what it's worth , it's showing a complete split in the vortex in fi ? Given the time of year I would say it looks plausible , that vortex has past it's sell by date , and only a matter of time before it's knocked out after been on the ropes for some time .

Well I'm having trouble viewing the 12 on meteociel for some reason , it's playing up as it flippin always does, but from what Iv seen yes it looks actually quite good , The scandi high starts retrogressing west somewhat as soon as t96 , and everything does look as if it wants to go under , the scandi high certainly is causing a few issues as usual , by t144 it looks like at least some of the energy is about to go under , but the same old issue hear is the fact that Europe is still mild , so not sure how low due points will be , our uppers of -3 or so would be fine , if we have cold due points to draw from France . Let's wait an see

Good to see you back Karl )I have to admit I'm getting tired of the same old charts , giving us a glimmer of hope one day , to be taken away the next . With the analysis John h gave last night we have to be realistic , along with the 10% easterly chance Ian f gave also , and with that said we have no argument for cold at the moment I'm afraid , the next 10 days or so it's gonna be average conditions , with westerly/northwesterly winds sweeping through after fronts pass, so basically zonal . The scandi high is only affecting the far north of Europe , with the likes of Poland/Germany staying mild , so until we can see Eastern Europe cool down we can forget looking east , whats the point in having easterly winds with uppers above zero? I understand that anything can happen in feb and march , so still plenty of time left for the winter to turn around , also with the eastern pacific ridge playing a major part in the weather then we will see some big amplification in the jet , which can in turn slow low pressure down allowing a pressure rise somewhere to our west maybe? Along with rumblings in the strat thread regarding a warming , although nothing set in stone regarding how much warming , and whether it can disrupt the vortex enough , but given the time of year it may well be enough of a final blow to finally dismantal it somewhat .But I have to say I'm sick to death of this winter as it is at the minute , it has to be the most vile first half of winter Iv saw since I became a member in hear at least which was 2008. I guess we'v been spoilt somewhat in recent years . Also just a quickie , Iv noticed the Azores high is showing its face again in fi recently , I think this is a red herring , I can't see how that's gonna have a sniff in the pattern going forward, other than ridging into the Atlantic slowing the jet down aiding amplification in response to the pacific ridge , but can't see it sitting flat to our south aiding zonal mush like some of the models are showing, I thinkin in the 10-15 day time frame we may be looking at a northerly , with the jet well south , and the Azores been our friend rather than foe , pushing northwards towards greenlands , that's my shout going forward . Time will tell I guess

Well those postage stamps are apart from probably 4 or 5 either negatively tilted or straight with a southerly air flow .so those straight troughs with the southerly winds must be more of a 50 50 split further down the line. With only some of those eventually digging southeastwards . Hence the dilluted mean. But saying that the mean doesnt look too bad to me. Definitely signs of an undercut in there.

Ok just for fun Iv attached the northern hemisphere charts for 192 and 240hrs , and it's quite easy to see the vortex and it's deep cold moving south , associated with it obviously is the low pressure that gets ejected off the main vortex southwards .I'm not suggesting for one minute this is how it will go , but it's very easy to see what CAN happen given the right Synoptics , we will know a bit more once the ens come out :)Edit : sorry i messed up the first post dam iPad !!

I know I really shouldn't say this because il give myself a stroke at the age of 30 lol . . . But that chart there you feel if the ECM carried on , you would get the vortex drop down the eastern edge of the high , bringing brutally cold uppers with it , once that low drops into Eastern Europe/Russia , you would see very very cold uppers (talking -20 850's!!!) move along the bottom of the high pressure , with ? You've guessed it . . . Our name on it !!

Blimey , this is the last thing I expected to see, certainly not for it to develop into the easterly it has, but we have to be realistic , it's unlikely , but not impossible , we can have a scandi high with a strong vortex , if we can dig as much energy southeast under the block that would really be the best we can hope for . Regarding the uppers , I wouldn't worry too much because the upper air pattern can only be took seriously within the 72hr time line , it doesn't take much for Europe to become very cold , upper air can cool over the continent in an instant , with no sun strength , home grown cold can build , Iv saw it at times in the past , given the right Synoptics we would have to pretty unlucky to have uppers above -3 in an easterly flow in the last wk 3rd of jan! As ever . . . More runs needed !!

I think that's a bit of hope casting there mate to be honest, there's so much scatter in there there is no clear trend, I certainly don't look at those and see a rise on the 23rd.As frustrating as it has been yet again , all of the experts on hear have never been shouting from the roof tops regarding a big freeze, we had one day where. We appeared to have cross model agreements of a cold spell , that was Wednesday , and it's been a steady clime down since then , at least things are looking more favourable now than all winter !