Severe Siberian icy blast

Totally agree bluearmy , iv been really fascinated this summer by the charts on offer rarely coming off , iv got to be honest with this and it has to be said the ECM ever since the 'upgrade' has been an utter shambles , I'm not sure what happened hear but it really has failed to live up the fine reputation it has/had , really think the programmers need to think seriously about rewriting its software if at all possible because if this continues into the winter season for the second year then it's gonna be in for some serious stick .

But before Saturday we have a week of settled warm weather , so the outlook summery has to be , a nice warm sunny week with the very strong sun . Unsure there after due to it been post t120 , so far I have experienced an amazing June with only Friday and Saturday just gone been unsettled , replaced my yet more sunny weather which is continuing into July . Yet only last week it was looking distinctly unsettled with a 36hr glancing ridge quickly blown away by the jet onslaught. It looks to me the classic north South divide will continue with nothing to suggest to me anything else.

But in all fairness that's your local experience, for people in many other parts of the country including northwest England and Ireland who traditionally have wetter summers they've had a fantastic month with temps into the mid 20's widely , and for me down in the southern midlands it's been an absolute corker of a month , a few thunderstorms , with many many sunny warm days , it's been the best June Iv had for years. If we have 2 wks of unsettled weather now I really still can't moan. Come middle of July and I expect we will all be seeing some nice weather again. Of course even Aberdeen can get the warmest spots in the uk sometimes with the shelter from the mountains , but then again you can get endless days of coastal mist and drizzle if the feed comes off the North Sea with temps in the low teens , if you get that sick of it I suggest you book a holiday or move further south maybe away from the coast

Hi polar maritime, whilst your statement is quite correct in what the gfs is showing , it's extremely unlikely a gfs chart from deep fairy tale land will verify , the last week we'v seen very few t144 charts get any where close let alone something that's over 300 hours away. For me June has even a fantastic month , despite lots of people forecasting it to be wash out . Lots of sunshine , 2/3 thunderstorms , and lots of warm temps in early 20's . Next week looking a week of transition in my opinion to a more westerly type pattern , no wash out , no northerly plunge , just weather breaking somewhat but pleasant by day and warm in Sunshine.

Morning,I'm really encouraged by the models , they have been somewhat changeable recently , but iv never bought the Scandi trough/Greenland high idea effecting us as much as was forecast . As in winter time things normally get watered down and this is the case again , obviously summer time is a different set up with the weak jet stream etc but I always thought things would temper down somewhat . The gfs picked up on this yesterday with keeping the high pressure more centrally based , and thankfully it looks like this could be the form horse next week , after the horrific winter we really could with a nice summer and since march really the weather has been quite kind to us . Quite optimistic of a nice second half to June with more emphasis on hot/humid Spanish plumes toward the last third with low pressure pushing north from bay of biscay bringing hot but thundery weather with it. But as ever time will tell .

Morning everyone. yes got woke up by the beast to my west, constant rumbles sounds like bombs in the distance , unfortunately the jack pot is to my west and it's moved on from me now. I think Gloucester and East Wales looked awesome . Good start to the day

But considering none of the models agree on the exact positioning of the low pressure/high pressure setting up , there's plenty of time for things to change and I'm sure it will.In the mean time we have a good 7 days of high pressure and lots of sunshine which is in the reliable so quite a good outlook in the near term.

Very nice summery Karl , it seems we are skipping April next week and going straight to May , for how long nobody knows ,but it sure is a welcome relief to see summery charts showing up again , since the turn of the month (March) we really have done very well in the main with very pleasant days becoming a regular thing . Which is very welcome after the most disgusting , vile , winter iv ever known , the thought of warm sunshine , t-shirts, and sitting outside a pub with a pint is mouth watering , roll on summer , and before we know it , October will be hear (only 7 months) and we will be on the hunt once again !

Well given the winter we'v had I would normally be well on the way looking for spring now , but after your comment I did a little research and it would seem there are some subtle hints as we move through march of some winter weather , indeed the first cold spell of the season ironically , and looking just simply at the ensembles this morning there is subtle hints of this as we reach the 10th march , I will post the graph format which not only shows the op was a ridiculous outlier , but also notice the clustering of members just past -5 line at 850hpa level , easy not to see much potential there but once you look through the individual postage stamps it's clear that the clustering of cold members are indeed a cold northerly wind with a euro trough and blocked Atlantic , some more potent than others of course .Obviously it's far away so really one to keep to an eye on rather than analyse but the chances are there with seasonal change in wave lengths as we go through spring and a relaxing of the vortex , the chances of northerly/easterly outbreaks will increase , also worth noting the North Pole has been extremely cold this year and there will be lots of very cold air to tap into well into spring I feel . Could well see snowy nights followed by thaws by day . All at this stage very tentative of course.

Mucka they haven't downgraded they've just moved south , which was always going to happen in my view going by experience , but I'm not expecting much from it to be honest .

Very early build was good in September , but it grinded to a holt in October and never moved westwards at all. Good Eurasian snow cover is a proven aid to our winter cold chances

That truly is incredible , at least somewhere has a snowy winter. Now all we need next winter is that eastern pacific ridge to set up shop in the mid Atlantic and be as dominating there as it has over there!! To be fair we was due a mild one , glad it's out the way now. Next year will be better , -QBO , past solar max . . . We need a good build up of Eurasian snow cover through October to push west this time !

Given the time of year last night I think that's very harsh. 99% of the public haven't got a clue about weather , probably never even watch it. Yes it's been stormy and on the news but you can't blame people for going out for a meal .

All in all a good start tonight by the models , think we're heading toward a pattern change folks. With the vortex on the move to Siberia that finally opens the door to other things , Greenland/Iceland high ? Scandi high with a deep low dropping into Eastern Europe ? There on the table as we go forward. And yes ok we may well be left with the same old Jank we'v had the last 3 months but honestly , I'm not in the slightest bit interested in looking at that so I will continue to search and search for a patten change until the end of march because it's all we have left to go on. So all those that slate ones for chasing cold I think it's more than understandable given the winter we'v had . And also these last few days have given me confidence that a change is aloft no matter how many times we'v been told it's not.

How high are you?

From a northern hemisphere point of view there is many positives hear , decent northern blocking with a good -AO signature , the problem we have is we still have cold air pushing way south into the western Atlantic and this in turn seems to fuel low pressure systems and ramps up the jet, so despite things looking potentially good we still have the same issue .

Hights stronger and pushing low pressure much further south on this run quite early on. Much better blocking to our north

I saw only just this morning a night anomaly chart for 10-12 days time which shows a strong scandi ridge with troughing to the west , but importantly the uk having an easterly air flow , it's really bugging where I saw it cause I just can't find it anywhere Iv searched all the forums and can't see it ! I really do hope for a change in the near future . Like John h said we have a test bite somewhat next week , really anything past t144 is liable to change anyway so maybe once we can get the hights to out north next week we can see something develop from there. I understand that it's not to preferred outlook by what's been churned out at the minute but it is a possibility given the time of year for the vortex to start to weaken its grip.

Yes sleet with wet snow flakes when I left for work at roughly 650ft then traveled to work in stow on the wold which is at 800ft thinking it would be snow but ppn is much much lighter so sleet ! If it gets heavier it should turn .

To be fair he isn't too bad. His a qualified scientist and meteorologist and in the past he has got certain predictions right , he predicted dec 10 way ahead of others. But yes he has got this year wrong in the sense he mentioned cold and snow , but regarding the storms his done quite well

Unfortunately he uses 384 charts and develops a forecast of his own that's a dead cert , then says other things to get a reaction , I don't even look at it to be honest I'm use to it by now .ECM running out now , and yes it does it appear to be going the same route as the 0z , can we reall go the whole winter without a small cold spell?

Woke up several times in the night to see blizzard conditions , really heavy snow , but melting between showers , so a covering on cars and grassy areas only.

Yes you can already see it setting up shop. Very exciting . I have a thin layer of snow and hail and much more to come by the looks of it. Should be some accumulations of snow on high ground .

Just as I read reports I told the mrs a storm was coming and then almighty hail bounced off windows followed by snow. Really nice and gone a lot colder now

Yes Iv been thinking along these lines myself to be honest , the Siberian sector really becoming a major player next week , with two notable sectors you could see a window of opportunity for hight rises in the middle toward Iceland , with deep cold into Europe pushing west along the southern arm of the high pressure over Iceland and just east of there . That could push the Atlantic systems southeast and undercutting the high giving an easterly. Those words may seem hard pushed to some but we're not far from that evolution from those charts you show. Interesting times