Severe Siberian icy blast

I have to admit that I was puzzled by purga's comments without even looking at 850's , to be honest he's on a wind up a lot of the time so I never take him seriously because he says 90% of what he says for a reaction .On to the models , Sunday night into Monday is looking exciting and has done for days now , it's the first time a westerly hasn't lost its cold uppers as the time gets closer of a long time. Let's not forget the Atlantic sea is warmer than the North Sea , maybe sitting at around 8-11c? (Don't know exact) but with uppers of -5/6 that will make it things very turbulent in the west of the country coming well inland with thunder snow a distinct possibility I expect . I no I'm been dumb hear but do you mean very cold and snowy that will make this place erupt?????!

So do you see the dreaded shortwave drams been the spoil again nick? As models only pick up on them closer to the time so that would only now be coming into range , that will be yet another kick in the teeth !??

Hi Karl ,I think because there was a lot of noise in the background back then , we had the a completely under developed vortex as it was only November , the Atlantic was very quiet also , and all the long range computer models were painting the same story . Now we have a raging vortex , although not as bad as December , and a strong jet, also it's only been the last 2 days that the models have developed this (apart from the ukmo model) , so with the fact it's still 4/5 days away and beyond , you can understand them holding off from shouting at the roof tops . Let's hope their morgreps model isn't showing something we don't want !? If we can get cross model agreement this evening I'm sure they will come on board.

I know it's the wrong thread but just to clarify a few things ,there is an ongoing fairly potent wave 1 activity hitting the stratosphere from now all the way through to day 9 Easing off somewhat toward the end. Along with decent wave 2 picking up just in time when the wave 1 eases somewhat , There is stress on the vortex over the next 10 days , so yes that might not mean a split vortex all the way through the strat but it may well be enough to split it , as we have just seen recently about the effect our weather next week , so with everything considered things are looking a lot brighter than what they did 4 weeks ago .

A day 10 strat chart is still very volatile and open to change for one , and even with a raging Atlantic you can have a scandi high , this 2 weeks we have had one with bitter cold air 200 miles east , with cold air already in place , a scandi high can be very influential even in the most zonal of winters , once the low pressure heads southeast , you find the rest up north follow suite . Nothing to be downbeat in the models this morning .

Like I said earlier their is further warmings in the stratosphere in the next 2 weeks , not a SSW by any means but the strongest warmings at 30hpa of the season , and all within the reliable time frame , what effects this will have remains to be seen but the split vortex we see next week is certainly from the wave 1/2 activity from recent weeks along with the minor warmings they bring , so given the fact that we are now entering a time when the vortex weakens anyway I see much to be excited about

Yes I noticed that this morning , especially in the gem , it seems the models over estimate the strength of the vortex in fi , they always have done , and given the strength of it this year it was more believable than most , but the tide is turning , we have minor warmings continuing to hit the stratosphere over the next week and while it's certainly not a SSW I think this will have a further knock on affect in the next few weeks. With more wave 2 activity forecast in about 8 days time I believe , the -AO setting up is due to the contineous wave activity this season peeling the vortex like an onion slowly but surely , so whether people realise it or not this vortex split we have is stratospheric led , with the vortex weakening with the progression of seasons over the next few months , February is certainly looking interesting to say the least , at last ! Obviously things are never clear cut but their is tentative signs of hights from Russia/scandi moving west in time toward Greenland , which as we all know could be the wholy grail if blocking is your thing. The gem shows what could happen in the latter time frames if things go our way . But in the mid term next week is looking potentially snowy . Not too mention heavy wintry showers rattling through on a strong westerly wind Sunday nignt into Monday .

Anything else past this point at t144 is just for trends remember And the trend is , a massive Russian high , an absolute beast , low pressure coming SSE across the uk , into cold air Really nice wintry flavour this morning , nice UKMO aswell , and the signs as we move into feb are for hights to build northwards . Winter is about to arrive guys . . ..

Very surprised to wake up to wet snow this far south this morning guys

Well Iv woke up to wet snow this morning, what a surprise

Well I'm sure that's a very professional and balanced view at this moment in time , especially with the public in mind , however looking at the UKMO raw , the ECM postage stamps for Europe , and the JMA which has even excellent so far I for one is thinking their is a distinct possibility of a snow event next week for the uk, but I understand that you guys are the pro's and have insight to things we don't . Along with the fact been a model thread discussion we can talk more openly about what may happen as we have nothing to loose I suppose .

Looking at that alone though how likely is it to be right at this time frame? The 06z is so progressive that's what it's famous for , so if it struggles with things inside the 100hr time frame how much more so is it likely to struggle after t144? The models are slowly getting to grips with a pattern change and expect more flip flopping over the coming runs , the Russian high is an absolute beast , if the gfs was right a week ago we would have swept the Russian high aside as soon as it made its first appearance . All in all a very big step this morning toward cold and snow , that's not dressing anything up , its how it is .

Emm interesting , I know there are ones that's actually routing for 1991 type blizzard come mid feb , and not off the likes of madden either . Someone in hear actually ! On that note my lips are sealed !!!

For me the biggest difference in this run is the polar profile compared with the 0z , the 06z has the eastern pacific ridge infiltrating the polar regions significantly more on this run , think that can only be a good thing going toward .

I must say I'm really impressed with the JMA , and the UKMO , these two have in my mind undoubtedly led the way over the last few days , and very glad to see the ECM ensembles trending very much colder especially for Europe , Iv been convinced we are about to see a major pattern change and remain so even more this morning , sliders coming down the country have bought lots of snow the uk over the years , and last years snow was as a result of that . Game on , finally !! The 06 is notorious for not handling blocking situations , I barely take note .

Yes models smelling the cheese put out 2 days ago by the ukmo and chasing it like rats searching for their last meal . . . With the first low on Monday sinking southeast , cold uppers arriving from east , then as that sinks into Europe the next low pressure system comes in and follows the path made by Mondays low , but with cold uppers already embedded next week is beginning to look a snowy week , not a done deal , but very good signs. Yes the whole profile looks a lot better today not just from the ukmo but the gfs and ECM , northern blocking looking better and certainly dictating the flow a lot more, once the ECM gets past 168 it rapidly strengthens the vortex again as it does a lot this year , whereas the gfs shows a disrupted vortex well into fi land , we don't know which if any will be right but we know their is warmings forecast in the next few wks and that will help create more volatile outputs to keep us all on our toes ! But all in all a very good view this morning , let's hope the mood in hear a bit lighter today because it makes me and others I'm guessing not wanto look on hear , I have enough bickering with my wife and don't want it on hear aswel !

We can't really tell which one is likely to be right at the minute , everything up for grabs it seems but i truly hope anything happens other than the gfs 18's , what a load of crap . Does my flippin nut in when it does this , and before anyone shoots me down no I'm not dis'n it because i don't like it, I'm dis's it cause it's known for dragging its heals and refusing to fit into a pattern that looks plausible . I'm not sure what the reasons behind the gfs doing this time and time again but it's absolutely Jank at patterns that breaks the norm . Ie , HLB

I'm beginning to lean that way myself to be honest .When I was a kid i remember me and my brother used to wish northwesterlies with snow showers coming through the Cheshire gap , I remember in 2001/2 I think it was we had a very snowy day via the Cheshire gap , parts of northwest mids , ie Stourbridge , Wolverhampton , frankly etc had 5" of snow one Saturday night , I was driving back from Lichfield and got caught in a blizzard it was unreal , extremely heavy , loved every minute of it though . It will be a good trend to watch over the coming days as the models have been hinting at this recently.

Yes it's ironic that we spend all our time dreading the westerlies but the west is so cold because of the mighty strong and cold vortex this year we actually stand a chance of having a snowy westerly , it's not unheard of , and Iv seen it twice in my life, the Atlantic is mild so throw 850's of -5/6 to the uk and that would be a snow machine in the truest sense , it is of course all speculation at this juncture but very interesting to talk about , Sunday night into Monday could be our first taste of something snowy from the . . . . Wait for it . . . . WEST!!!!!

Iv saw enough tonight to keep us all interested , much to be finalised yet , the uppers don't look great on this run but anything past t96 is just for fun to be honest , so we have solid building blocks going into next wk , a chance for snow , cold continent . All the models become very progressive in the latter parts of the run so really not much point looking beyond 144 . Good progress and the ukmo leading the way from this morning .

The high over Greenland has grown in strength from 1024 to 1032 on the 06

The high pressure of 1040 which is pretty strong is moving southwest deflecting the low pressure southeast , with cold air advancing west as the 850's chart shows

Frosty I agree entirely , I think we're a lot closer now than the previous 6 wks , the models look full of interest , really puzzled by the downbeat nature this morning . Trough disruption with northern blocking on the 2 big 2 , yes the ECM is not too good but 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Snow for quite a few Sunday night and Monday , a taste of reall cold zonality for a change , followed by a very very cold block moving west. That to me screams potential , yes people get fed up of this word and it's understandable given the winter so far but things really are changing aloft and the vortex is prone to distortion and splits from now on given the change to the weakening westerly waves due to seasonal progression .But even if we don't see any snow this year which is highly unlikely it's not the end of the world and we all know how fast time goes by , another 9 months and it all starts again , but having past the solar maximum and in an -QBO faze next winter is already better than this one !!

With a core high of 1040 that is one strong high pressure. Also it's more about the shape and position of it , with it positioned as it is (murr sausage ) the low pressures will not be able to go through it , we can see the angle of the lows they are sinking southeast with our name on it . Risky but high reward, with cold air already in place the ukmo really is a snow fest this morning.If you compare the two charts 120 and 144 we can see the high pressure moving southwest which moves it to a near perfect position to set up battles with us on the cold side . Once the front passes through did we notice the cold 850's pushing in from the east ? Folks please understand taking models from face value this is best run of the winter by ukmo , and what a model to show it because we all know if the ukmo doesn't show it , it usually doesn't happen , I'm not of course saying this is how it will happen , but it is setting us up for a very. Cold and snowy spell. And for those that's not happy with the gfs , look at trends , not detail ,fronts disrupting against northern blocking ,pushing southeast , cold continent , snowy northwesterlies , warmings in the stratosphere , need I go on? Really puzzled by people's reactions sometimes

Ian have you saw the latest infamous gfs run?! Normally laugh it off but lots of support from its ensemble suit . Could the complete set bark up the wrong tree? Or the beginning of a trend?