Severe Siberian icy blast

Well I think you must of installed the 18z program yourself OMM ??

Some top posts in hear tonight, although that is really wishful thinking at this stage , but that would tie in quite nicely with Ed's winter forecast regards to our cold coming via scandi high pressure , if we can get the jet to dive south , along with a scandi ridge then it will open the door to sliders coming across the uk !

I agree that the solar input has an effect on the weather and jet stream, but this winter has many other factors that has led to this spell , west QBO phase in a solar maximin been one of many , with the Asian snow advance really pegged far to the east through November , it's a slow burner this year. But all the signs point to change from the middle of jan , maybe a SSW late jan . Patience

Lol , so I finished work , went to the gym , then had a game of footie , came home , and see a very nice ECM , does this mean anything ? Well it means something until 7am tomorrow morning , with a good set of ensembles to go with it m which tells us it's not a done deal , so therefore please realise that this could go either way , but just because for 2 days on the trot we have nothing but rubbish (apart from gem and to an extent ukmo) it doesn't mean we can right off the next 3 weeks does it? So with a set of ensembles like that , it tells us the gem could well of been a trend setter. Also we had a low to our south toward the end of the run that vanished on the next frame , that looks suspicious , it looked like it would undercut . Game on :/))

It looks a lot better than the 06z looked at that time !

Morning all having looked at the GEM as already said its on its own but there is "some" backing from the ecm ensembles. I said the other day that by the weekend I think we will see some change in the output and I stand by that. If we can see a move tonight by the mods toward the gem then its really giving us a different outlook over the next 10days more akin to what ones thought would be the case 2 or 3 days ago. Lets not forget the ukmo is a lot better than the ecm/gfs although not as good orientation on the high as the gem , but as steve said the other day if the ukmo isnt on board then it's not reliable. So although the ukmo isnt amazing it does scream potential and I would prefer to have the ukmo standing alone (although in reality it has the gem as support which is statistically more reliable than gfs) than the gfs . All eyes on the 12z ) Ps sorry to the ones who felt I was argumentative yesterday the weather has this thing that has the power2 wind me up and I should not take it out on hear . . . Pls forgive my pettiness

Although the ECM looks very uninspiring , when we look at the polar profile in fi it's anything but , disrupted vortex there will high pressure well into polar regions . Maybe one to watch ?

I do feel a small step in the right direction on the 18z , disruption out west with very little Atlantic influence , and a slightly better southern arm to the jet , low pressure trying to push up from the south in fi which is always a good sign , and slightly better orientation on the high pressure in Europe . May not be cut and dry yet folks.

Agreed but the energy still looks like its gonna go through , we need a negative tilt on the low pressure out west to go under the block then we would be on the money, but definitely better than earlier !!

At no point did I suggest ian promised an easterly. So yes please read posts properly. What I said is forecasts are fickle. As they only go by what the charts show. And as for the ens , they have been awfull because 3 days ago for my area nearly the whole sets were going for a short but very cold shot. Now they very very briefly clip the -5 850hpa line. Along with ones showing signs of an easterly developing . Only to completely vanish a day later.

the thing about the ensembles and co is they change a lot. Yesterday ian f said all pointers were looking at an easterly . Now its not. What will it show come sat? Nobody knows . If the models change. The forecasts change. Simple as that. 3 days ago the bbc were bigging up this cold snap. Now theres no mention. Why? Because the models have downgraded it. Every forecast out there is fickle . As well as the models .

As it happens the 06z is not a million miles away from delivering an easterly . Its a sse but there does look to be more ridging into scandi on this one. Sorry can't post charts . Lets just get this pathetic of a northerly out the way first. Then look to what's coming next week. Remember next wk is a long way off and absolutely everything can change by the time sat comes .

completely agree. The gfs was going for a much flatter pattern than the other big 2 . Everybody slated it but when push to shove the gfs is good at picking upon trends. Yet it has its flaws . But initially its good ,then it tends to drop it , only to pick it back up, this wkends northerly is no different to last wkends short one. The difference between them is one was modeled correctly . The other one was misunderstood big time by the models. The vortex strength is too strong to allow ridging northwards . And until we can get a clear move away from a particular area be it greenland or siberia without leaving segments behind then high lat blocking is just not going to occur. A scandi high is a possibility if 1:the vortex moves to Canada without leaving energy behind and 2: the jet is split but a stronger southern arm. If the northern arm is strong then in my opinion a sustained block is unlikely IMO

Agreed , a few days ago this wkend was looking very cold and snowy for some , now it's a brief cold snap for the north over 24hrs thurs afternoon and fri morning , with westerly air under high pressure for the wkend dominating . The models are doing what they do all the time , over reacting to a signal , of milder air early next wk , and we have folks talking as if it's a "done deal" which is bizarre , wasn't this very cold wkend a "done deal" ? The scandi ridge is showing signs of showing its hand , but not yet , and IMO it is a good 12-15 days away . Which is what Ian f talked about . I'm going for 3 days of mild 850hpa's next week , before a decline from a southeasterly air , but no 'Deep cold' until 15th . But it will come IMHO.

Screaming zonality isn't it Ian ?!!!!

absolutely top post. I dont need to say anything more to this excellent post. Apart from remember this northerly was looking very potent 3 days ago. Only now does things look different. I dont think for one minute we will see unusually mild air next week. Maybe 2 days or 3 max before cooler air comes back. Models change very very quickly and why ones post with confidence anything past t120 at the very most is beyond me especially after the last 3 days of model watching . We have gone from a 4 day severe cold spell to a 24hr event. The strat simply didnt fit the profile it was suggesting with regards high lat blocking and low an behold we have witnessed the models coming to terms with this as come closer. And now we are left with the strat pointing to a more favourable position with the vortex moving away from siberia ,im sure as they get to grips with the changes aloft then we will see this reflected in the output.

I think rather than getting too caught up with one set of runs we need to chill a bit. First off the scandi high is progged for about 15 days time or so. The ecm 240 chart means nothing because its very fickle like any fi charts and very rarely verifies. Yes we can look for building blocks and they have all been there. We will not be seeing cold uppers in our shores for while yet. By the weekend I think we have some eye candi fi charts . But not yet.

absolutely bang on. Charts dont lie . The northerly was over amplified so much by all the models. In particular the ecm , I no the annalysis steve gave last night was very good , and in the main it got the profile in the northern hemisphere right . But small corrections have major implications on the UK. Mainly in the over amplification of the ridge to our west. Along with been to far west. But I think we are all aware of that when it comes to northerlies !Great to see the met o in favour of a battleground type scenario . I know it's a genuine threat when ian and john h talks of it. Interesting times

Indeed I would say this northerly has yet again been dropped more or less completely , or at least in comparison to what it was showing a few days ago , this wkends cold plunge is as short as last wkends brief fling with the northerly wind, and yet absolutely know one said a thing about it last wkend , mainly because it wasn't bigged up by the models in the days leading up to it . But it's been yet again another lesson for the ones that bought into the fickle predictions made by the models , but when one isn't backing it , nothing is a dead cert. All the stick the gfs gets for been rubbish but in reality this has been the best by a country mile in nailing this latest fiasco . As for the easterly . Believe it when it actually comes , not when the ECM is showing it at t192 .

The unfortunate realisation this morning that this severe cold spell with uppers below -10 has once again been watered down considerately , deep cold for one day , we should learn massive lessons from this , and those chasing deep cold at 240z on the ECM should think realistically if it's actually gonna happen ? The models still haven't got it right for 4 days time , so the chance of them getting it right for 10 days time is very very slim . Everyone backing the ECM but in reality it's backed right off the cold weather , it's gone from 4 days cold spell , to one day , the snow will be in Scotland , and maybe through western areas , with a few through the Cheshire gap , but nothing to get excited about . The gfs has been to progressive as always , but the ECM has been far to amplified . I think the scandi ridge will set up shop , but if I had to make a shout I would say we will be too far west , and more likely to have extremely mild southerly winds rather than cold easterlies . I hope I'm wrong I really do , I love snow as much as anyone but I'm not gonna be unrealistic again , and previous years Iv had my snow blinkers on all winter only to be let down time and again so to save disappointment it's best to look realistically at the models .

So in reality you don't think sustainable cold is achievable between now and feb , which is over 2 months away , that's a very big call to make before December begins , i hope to goodness that's wrong . Your knowledge is amazing and thanks for sharing it with us recently , although the optimism in me makes me pessimistic in regards to you writing off 2/3'rds of winter .

I really hope I'm wrong hear , but given the low heights over the pole the gfs solution is a possible one , if the high doesn't ridge north then that low would go over the top , sinking any high south , hence the warm uppers riding over the top of the high. Let's hope for a flip in the morning .

So we have gone from -10 850's for next weekend from this morning , and replaced it with +10 850's this evening for the same time . . . The joys of the gfs !!!

Oh deer . . . . its something we all should be use to by now . Which is why I never read into things more than t144 away . Not saying this is right of course. But I am quite confident the final jury will be a much more watered down version of events than what the gfs/ecm had this morning. Simply because the models over react to pattern changes when they pick up a signal first. They then completely drop it as we draw closer , to pick it back up again nearer the time with a more realistic look. But we also know many times especially northerlies things move East dramatically nearer the time. So dont be surprised if we dont get anything out of it. My advise if you dont want to be burnt with fire. Do not take model individual runs literally .

although the graph is misleading as we all know its only indicative of what the models are showing. Its not a background signal . Or a driver. Its simply as reliable as the models themselvs. Which at the minute are far from it .