Severe Siberian icy blast

Yes it was a sleet snow mix hear, very very windy in my open village with damaging winds accompanying the wintry mix.Points west looked good , he appeared somewhat unsure as to where these showers will line up , but all of us at times could well see some snow falling . It would be better if there was no wind as evaporative cooling would play a big part , especially with slowing the showers down things could of been much better from a snow persctive .

Quite a marked difference at t120 on the 12z compared to the 06 , everything further west , and the cold air slightly further south , and the low coming behind the first low is negatively tilted in comparison to the 06 , so small steps in the right direction this evening . And a very very different northern profile

Umm interesting thanks mate. Wonder weather Cotswolds will be in on the fun ?!

I know lol, imagine what 850's of -15 with nights below -10 would do to them flooded acres upon acres of land . We could end up with severe lake affect snow generated by the new lakes lol , now that would be fun haha. I'm just joking by the way before some snow starved mad person on hear thinks I'm on to something !!!

It all depends on the track and shape of the low pressure , the ECM and ukmo have it sliding under a nice clean movement that in the past brings snow and normally continues to prolong the cold spell as once one goes under the rest tend to follow. I feel the low pressure by the 2 big ones has a knock on effect down the line , where's the gfs has it shabby, flabby , and just sits in place for too long mixing the cold out with it . It's unlikely the ukmo and ECM will both be wrong at this time frame but stranger things have happened and judging this winter so far I wouldn't be surprised . And re the ECM ens , i really don't think it means much at this range because as we saw just 3 weeks ago , we had a complete set going very cold , only to vanish 12 hours later , so the ens can be very fickle. Going by the ECM and gem, all picking up the same pattern , and with the ukmo looking identical as the ECM at t144 range you could argue that they may well be sniffing out a major pattern change . But we need to see this built on tonight. The models have been toying and froeing with thiis for a while so we shouldnt be completely surprised by it .

I think the intense strip to our southwest at the minute will grow in size as over the next few hours. Then as the band now across Ireland pushes north the band to our southwest will be the dominant band covering England

Very good GEM this morning also. With almost all models showing similar Synoptics just variations of the same thing really surely this has to be a trend . You can't have every model barking up the wrong tree can we? Meh !

Amongst the upgrades this morning , which the models have been hinting at for quite some time , especially as the 0'z this year have tended to be the set to bring us all crashing back to earth with a bump , this I feel has to be a very good sign . Nobody has mentioned this possible snow event either at a much more reliable time frame . Given the colder air in place and cold air sucking quickly in behind it there may be a genuine case for a snow event on its northern flank . Gfs has this low further north and a bit too flabby to bring anything , whereas the ECM keeps it clean . Not too mention this evening and tonight is going to be a very snowy night for the higher ground of northern England , and various streamers further south feeding consistent wintry showers , things are definitely beginning to get interesting . It's the 12 feb today so we have a good 5 weeks left available to receive disruptive snow with the right Synoptics . So all is not lost folks

Agreed , really at that time frame t144 absolutely everything is up for grabs at this point , the northern profile looks good at that point , just need the, hights to build and strengthen , or at least remain strong enough to push the lows coming off the Canadian vortex to dive south east , if we can get low pressure into Southern Europe then the likelihood is other systems coming off it will follow suit .

Alright fella thanks for the heads up

Hi mate I haven't watched any weather , and I'm wondering what's the forecast tonight cause I did see points west and although it looks like rain toninght he mentioned snow , but then on the northwest thread they showed a screen shot from bbc national and it showed lots of snow up there , has it moved further north now ? Anyone give us the heads up please ?Thanks

What a sickening winter

Hi tony, so it's turned to sleet has it? I woke up at Half 5 to see it sleeting with proper flakes mixed in. Unexpected !

Chaps lets move on please from this debate it happens every year. Rather than debate tirelessly why not research it like Steve has done lots of times. Figures don't lie. Let's discuss the potential weather coming up and keep this ongoing debate for another thread .

It's been a difficult winter that's for sure , the models have twice gave led us up the garden path for longer than a few days. First one was the failed northerly for the first few days of December , and the second was the failed easterly a few weeks ago . But I'm absolutely amazed by the strength of the Canadian vortex this year and in turn the jet stream. Iv never known a winter like this before , Iv read that 89/90 was similar but I was 7 then and can't remember . But I have to say on a personal level it's a horrible , disgusting excuse of a winter , and If we have more winters like this on a regular basis il seriously think about moving abroad . Everywhere else in the world at 50* north (estimate) has cold winters , warm sunny summers. We have cool wet summers , mild wet winters. And been a weather enthusiast it actually gets me down . Let's hope this next 10 years as we head toward a solar minimum we have the jet stream go quiet and in turn more continental winters because this is unbearable , especially for those that's had there lives ripped apart from the flooding and damaging winds.

Yes I have to admit when I looked at the ECM for early next week , with upper around -3/4 under a slack low pressure , especially if you have snow cover on any higher ground , may well end up quite a wintry week for some , higher the better obviously but things look to be going in the right direction , finally !

congratulations feller

A really well written post rjbw . Things are showing up for a change next week with some colder air mixed in so maybe some snow for some. And re deep cold in late feb we all know is easily accessible in fact much more likely than in december. I think most importantly we need Europe to go into the freezer by mid feb. Yes northerly winds are good. But if we can have a freezing continent we will always have a chance of tapping into cold. Very cold air bottled in the Arctic flooding unto europe will bring exceptionally cold air a long way south well into march as we saw last year . Remember the isle of white having 40cm last march ? Not to mention the snow storm on the 22nd in many places. Anywhere that had uppers below 0c were having heavy snow . I was on the border line so I had snow to rain as it first went north then back to snow as it sank south during the friday night . so still plenty of time yet. But first thing first wait for this horribly tough vortex to weaken and move northwest some what before we can look out for real cold air .

It doesn't really show the whole picture at just 10mb , we need a warming to propagate right thought , top to bottom of the strat. But still very good to see the vortex dieing away in fi , the building blocks are there from early on . Let's hope things move forward and replicate through other models !

I realise that if only looking at 10mb it's misleading , and the fact it isn't a SSW , but just thought/hoped it would be enough to put this disgusting vortex to bed. Thanks for your reply , I really think it's getting to the point now where we kiss goodnight . I'm growing in frustration every day that passes and for my sanity I think I need to move on . A part of me come the summer will be glad of it because we knew we were due one . Just didn't expect one this bad . My heart tells me we still have 6/7 weeks left for a decent cold spell. But my head is telling me if we were to have one , we would be seeing signs by now . We can kiss goodbye to another 2 weeks at the minute I think . Then hopefully we will have some signals !

So this basically takes the biscuit , we wait all winter for a warming , and all it does is pressure the vortex and make it even more concentrated in the remaining major segment ? Even with this warming , polar flux for the first time this winter , it's still a bleak outlook? Is there a possibility that once the warming hits , and begins to filter down toward the troposphere , could we not see more of a break in the troposphere vortex than been currently modelled ?As we know we have this downwelling of winds that gets flushed through the stratosphere (peeling the onion!) but surely once the warming takes place and filters down the strat after the flushing of the cold air we will be in a much better place synoptically than where are now? I'm just having reall trouble getting my head round the fact we look out every year for this , and there doesn't even seem to be a hint of anything favourable coming from it . Hope you don't mind me asking mate

Tamara with regards to the vortex moving further west to central parts of Canada , I think this is starting to show the first signs of that . As suppose to this we have for next week . Now it actually goes Pete tong after that I thought we would see blocking ridge north and cut it off but it didn't. But is this maybe a straw to clutch with regards the vortex slipping west ?

Just for fun . . .go on then !

To me this is key to where we go next week to 10 days. I expect wave 2 activity next week will show it's hand more in the trop response. Jet diving south. Big scandi high to force westwards and the mighty canadian vortex weaken . Easy right?!!

Right ok but surely that leads to more of an influence of a scandi high then ? Back to square one besically it all depends if the wave activity coming up can weaken the vortex sufficiently to allow a stronger influence from it than last.