Severe Siberian icy blast

If you look into cohens theory re SAI then it's easy to see that November zonality is to be expected through at least the first 2/3'ds of Nov . I really don't understand the frustration in the first wk of November , firstly considering the time of year we are doing remarkable in terms of the vortex unable to develop like one would expect. And secondly there has been countless times the states have a cold winter with a -NAO pushing the jet stream South with the uk also having a cold winter last year we was in a VERY different position to this year .We have multible warmings forecast in the start over the next few wks , which will have further knock on affects down the line along with wave 1 activity pressing the vortex giving added pressure on it so we really are in a fantastic position this year , just patience is required .

Well iv just ready the first 6 pages of the 2009 thread and it's amazing to watch events unfold and the excitement of GP and chinomaniac grow , certainly chiono's silence last year was enough in itself that it was a no goer . Things looking very good this year and very similar to 09 , have a really good feeling this year folks .

Hi John. Like you say it looks close. From what I can see the ecm looks like the jet although dipping well south of the UK may come back over us taking us just the wrong side of the jet where as on the gfs the wave dips under the UK keeping us on the polar side therefore dragging the low pressures in a southerly track which would leave us open to attacks from the north and east ? Please feel free to correct me I'm reading this wrong ? Thanks ☺

When the models are predicting a northerly in 7 days time as they have been , the first thing that stood out clearly to me was the fact that as it gets closer the northerly will dwindle out to nothing , and this mooring it's began that process, it's very early in the season and although not impossible , it's unlikely to get 850's down to -5 during early November . Especially a glancing 24/36hr northerly , so to me 850's at around 0/-1 seem much more likely next wk with temperatures during the day at 6/7's in the north and 9/10's in the south .

Terrier you said the same thing last wk. in fact every week , you obviously haven't got a clue how to read signals , stratosphere impact , -QBO , and the fantastic correlation of the OPI ,all the major signals pointing to an interesting winter to say the least . Computer models have a verification stat that's best left in the cats litter tray .

Right so in affect the outlook is not to be trusted by the models , because loss of dats in snow and ice values means they don't have a clue what impact sea ice and Siberian snow cover could have moving forward?

If you think about it a neg AO in October will result in an increase of snow cover during the month , may not be in Siberia but a negative AO will normally spill cold weather to more southern latitudes (relative for time of year) so the OPI and the SSI is in my opinion intrinsically linked .

Think we are gonna see a very cold 8/9 day spell with snow , but a very mild wk after it . So because of that il go with 6.9c

Looking at the ECM and GFS northern hemisphere it's very startling to notice the polar vortex hasn't got the power this year , so many factors contributing to this , with more wave one activity forecast to hit the stratosphere going forward , with both of the big models hinting at Greenland hight rises as we head toward November .

The thing is we can safely say the first half of the month is definitely gonna be a negative value , I don't think there has been one day with a positive reading ? So we need some big + values now to drive it into positive territory . The winter is already looking loads better than last year .

Hi Steve , to be fair it wasn't only northeast USA that got battered , the were various extremely cold outbreaks pushing further south , it got into Central regions at times .I remember it clearly . With the news reports saying the vortex had dropped into Central parts. But obviously they have different variables to us and the fact they had such a stubborn ridge in the pacific meant low pressure naturally dropped further east into the states . A good article hear http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013–14_North_American_cold_wave

Guys what a fantastic early outlook to early winter we have hear , I personally never bother with long range models , I would sooner do the research myself and look at all the parameters as we head in to winter , and at the minute , every signal is pointing toward a very interesting winter , indeed we are so so different to this time last year , having not had a winter for 2 years now , I'm really relishing the possibility of a cold blocked winter , not just for the snow , but the model watching is so much fun , all the excitement in the model thread , it's the first thing I look at when I wake up in the morning , and now with the OPI to look at aswell gives a really good build up to winter . Really feel we are all in the best internet weather channel in the world here on netweather , it wipes the floor with anything else out there , with the most fantastic learning tools available . Happy days guys feeling really optimistic about the winter now . Here's hoping for a 09/10 style winter

It's a much different set up this year round thankfully , a lot more excitement to come from now for the build up and then the main course hopefully !

Steve that's really interesting , and while it all seems to good to be true in a forecasting sense , if the correlation is that strong , surely LRF's will be much more accurate than they are ? I understand it's only one tool in a big tool box used but we all know how much a blocked pattern can help us ?!

Fair enough but it wasn't going for a stormy winter , if remember righty it was going for a dry winter wasn't it ?

To be honest I Pay about as much attention to the met office long range models as I do with the CFS , they have been horrifically wrong over the years , which includes last year . Long range forecasting is a mugs game. We can all look for signals , ie QBO , SSI , El Niño/La Niña , solar activity , jet stream , and of course the very important stratosphere , and analogue years for pattern matching, then produce a forecast at the very end of autumn , but looking at computer models for over 3 months away is completely useless because no computer model can correctly forecast how all the pieces of the jigsaw falls into place , because say for example you have most signals pointing toward a mild winter , but Europe have a cold autumn with extensive Siberian snow cover ,(autumn 2012) then once that Siberian high forms it can be very difficult to shift , therefore can drive cold weather to out shores with the increased risk of southerly tracking lows . So lots of jigsaw pieces to fit together and only once we have the complete picture can we look at putting together an accurate forecast . Even then it's rarely right. As timing of events can be extremely volatile .

I can honestly say that these two comments are the most sterio-typical false statements iv ever heard , if you've never been to a BBQ then your not qualified to comment are you? BBQ's are a perfect opportunity to get outdoors when the weathers nice , have friends over , and sip wine in the garden (or drink white lightening if we believe what you've made out ) it's a fantastic opportune time to socialise with people you care about . Anyway back to the theme I'm really looking forward to cool evenings , the first frost. Red leaves , and the general excitement of knowing the winter is on its way , and looking for signals in the models and studying the stratosphere thread trying to pick out potential waves/warmings in the coming weeks.Roll on autumn

Yea I have to admit given that August has over the recent years been a wash out , it's normally around the time when I start looking for the first signals . As BFTP says , a weak El Niño , and an easterly QBO , already gives us a better start to last year , even my wife this year is looking forward to winter , we were only talking about this last night . If we can see the sun start to really quieten off , then that would help I feel , and during sept but more particularly October see the SSI (Siberian snow index) take off then that would really help to lock Europe in the freezer. Another 4 wks or so then we can really look in more depth .

Yes of course , and my post will look very different to yours , that's because iv focused on one run. So yes we have to say the gfs 0z looks wrong , but time will tell I suppose if it's s new trend or a one off , but the ensembles tend to agree that pressure will be on the rise next week .

A rather different picture been painted this morning by the gfs , a warm settled spell next week looking odds on now , with high pressure becoming more dominant as we move into August , we can see this looking at the pressure chart for my area , with pressure looking quite high throughout after the next few days

The thing is as this really is an evolving situation , the break down that is upon from today really isn't much of a break down , yes of course it's a fresher week , especially the further north you are , with spells of rain or showers like you say , but this week for England and Wales looks warm , with good spells of sunshine , and yes unsettled for some . But not a washout by any means . So with the el-niño really driving the background signals and teleconnections pointing to another push of hights from the east , I'm not looking at next wkend in the models with much confidence , after Tamara's excellent informative post although a bit hard to understand certain detail , we can see that over the next 10 days things will 'rinse and repeat' so I do expect the models to start showing this over the coming week. Watch for retrogressing heights over Scandi moving west , with the typically week summer jet being split in 2 , one very week arm going directly north , the other south , with a cut off low grinding to a holt to our southwest inviting as others have said another 'POSSIBLE' hot plume

Morning , I can say with absolute faith that I witnessed one of the most incredible storms of my life last night . Two intense storms , one to my west and one to my east . Constant lightening , fork , sheet , and bolts , with loud crackling thunder , bombs going off all around me, realy quite scary at times. The forecasters never saw that coming last night. I don't think any of us thought it was going to go off like that? Although warnings were issued by netweather an co come late afternoon , the intensity and how widespread they were really shocked me . What a night !!

Morning , I can say with absolute faith that I witnessed one of the most incredible storms of my life last night . Two intense storms , one to my west and one to my east . Constant lightening , fork , sheet , and bolts , with loud crackling thunder , bombs going off all around me, realy quite scary at times. The forecasters never saw that coming last night. I don't think any of us thought it was going to go off like that? Although warnings were issued by netweather an co come late afternoon , the intensity and how widespread they were really shocked me . What a night !

Lol when you put it like that ba ! Very hot weather coming our way by our standards , a nice lovely week next week aswell , a lovely summer this is turning out to be

Just thinking how amazing it is to see such lovely summer charts on offer , gfs absolutely blew me away with such amazing warm summer weather been the order of the day. The ECM although not as nice still looks good with more hot weather moving north in fi , what ever happens the secondhand half of July looks warm , albeit thundery at times , but with some hot sunshine aswell , after such a depressing winter this summery is/has been the perfect antidote needed to recover .