Blizzardo

A lot of rain over parts of South West England and Southern parts of Ireland just now and things trundling north very slowly. It relation to the how far north, today seems to have been good so far for Southern and even some Central parts of Scotland with higher parts of South West Scotland likely to see big totals. These faxes show the picture tomorrow at midday and midnight. The Glasgow area has been really unlucky this winter but should catch something this time - although if anything can go wrong it probably will. This graphic posted on the model thread does seem to broadly show the current predicted snow totals with some parts of the UK likely to see huge falls.

I note with interest he's now suggesting it may actually reach South West Scotland. A fantastic poster and brings so much energy to this forum but he sometimes focuses a but too much on his own and surrounding areas in my opinion.

I think its becoming clear this morning that the front will reach Dumfries and Galloway and parts of Ayrshire where there should be some heavy snow. Whats not settled is how far north its effects will go. I dont think there is the big shift south this morning that many on the model thread were predicting although that could still happen. GFS snow prediction for 6pm Friday looks good but still subject to shifts.

I'm surprised at this comment to be honest as I find the GFS good at short range for frontal events. PS I notice the usual South East posters on the model thread are discounting the front reaching Scotland. Thats not how it looks to me.

On GFS 18z rolling out now snow pushing into the west of the Central Belt around Friday rush hour.

A lot will depend on the intensity but dew points look good and uppers -5c and below should hold it as snow especially if there is an early covering.

I think its time for South West Scotland to get a good snowfall. Latest view is that weather warnings may be corrected southwards missing Scotland entirely. I hope not as this is not a situation where the Atlantic will smash through leaving things mild. If the front does move into Scotland it will get pushed back south anyway so plenty of opportunity for eastern parts to get convective showers next week. I'd love to see some snow starved parts get a huge snowfall.

Light snow falling and some showers on the radar seem to be pepping up a little. I didnt really expect that but I'm wondering if there might be a few surpises today as the colder uppers move back in. The outlook looks like winter will stay firmly in place. Possible blizzard conditions could hit some parts of Southern Scotland on Friday and there should be some heavy showers following across many parts as we move into the weekend. The long term looks colder with the GFS ensembles going lower and it is 29th March before the mean line breaches -5c.

Some heavier bursts of snow in the last half hour but still struggling to lie. Temperature very gradually dropping, now 1.6c/0.5c.

ECM is a cracking run with cold holding firm. This would give blizzard conditions on Friday to much of Southern Scotland with cold uppers just about holding at around -6/-7c. If you then look at Saturday you can see the -8c line moving south again and the energy from the low pressure starts to disapate. This spell of weather looks like it could become memorable.

Despite have lost the cover of snow I had this morning I remain optimistic about tonight. Air temperature should gradually fall and the dew point should drop a little bit as well. Winds are strong and the radar is looking good as well. Incredible to think we're moving towards the end of March and we look as though we could be locked in the cold for at least another week. 2.1c/0.7c.

A quick scan of the models show that the GFS is worse than yesterday with cold and some snow initally before mild wins out in the latter part of the weekend going into next week. The UKMO and ECM go for the low from the south west being deflected under the cold block. The ECM looks cracking right out to day 10. Here I've got a light covering of snow and light snow falling. The radar looks good though with snow potentially more prolonged snow pushing in from the east. 1.3c/-1.8c.

Light snow here but seems to be getting a bit heavier 2.3c/-0.4c.

Precipitation band close to me. It will be rain initially but I'm hopeful of some sleet or wet snow as it sets in 3.4c/1.9c.

New Met Office warning issued for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England. Issued at - 17 Mar 2013, 12:51 Valid from - 19 Mar 2013, 00:05 Valid to - 19 Mar 2013, 23:59 During Tuesday an area of sleet and snow over Scotland will move south into parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland. Snowfall will be heaviest over hills, where 5 to 10 cm of snow seems likely and with around 15 cm or more across some upland areas. At lower levels accumulations will generally be less than 5 cm and east coastal areas are likely to see little lying snow. However over many upland areas, the snow will drift in the strong easterly winds, (gusting to 40 to 50 mph quite widely), bringing significant drifting over many hill routes. Icy stretches will add to the hazardous conditions. Conditions should start to ease from the north through the day, although the speed of this improvement is unclear. The public should be aware that some disruption to travel may well develop, and depending on subsequent information, this warning may be upgraded to Amber across parts of the region.

Snow risk increasing as we go through today into tomorrow - snow only on high ground throughout much of today. Then on Tuesday, as the flabby low sitting over us, sinks south east the door is opened to colder air that will cover all of Scotland with the prospect of snow showers for many, particulary the east of the country. This cold will dig in for the next 3 days with some really low temperatures in some parts. As we move into the end of the week we have what looks like a classic battleground set up with low pressure and milder conditions clashing with our entreched cold. We have a really interesting week of weather coming up.

Rain likely to arrive with me any time soon. I'm not expecting snow or even sleet initially with temperature 3.4c and dew point 1.1c so anything other than rain will be a bonus.

Short term interest today with rain and sleet turning to snow as it moves north this morning. The models do indicate that before winter loses its grip we will be in for a memorable cold spell with deep cold moving across all of Scotland and high likelyhood of snow at times. I dont think I've seen seen projected temperatures as low moving towards the end of March with maximums of around 2c-4c and lows of about -2c--4c for 10 days. There is a lot of interest if your looking for snow and on Tuesday for example more deep cold upper air moves in from the North East. Maximum temperatures are low. and the wind is coming from an ENE direction. This could well bring more snow showers or prolonged snow to many parts. The above is just early in the week before the possibility of fronts moving up from the South West meet the deep cold to the North East. As always things are subject to change and disappointment but looking good for cold and snow.

The ECM would give huge snowfall next week for some parts of Scotland with a battleground set up - approaching low pressure from the South West meeting deep cold to the North East - and we'd be in the middle.

Scotland still looking good for an extended cold spell with lots of snow chances before winter loses its grip. Some exceptional model output tonight again that would bring about a memorable March. Another cold night ahead with the temperature falling quickly over the last hour 1.1c/-5.1c.

Based on the ECM rolling out just now you could be right.

The weekend is looking borderline for some prolonged snow for some. Using the GFS 12z to illustrate. You can see that an area of low pressure and associated band of precipitation moves in on Saturday afternoon from the North West and it then almost grinds to a halt over the UK. There is a fair amount of heavy precipitation wrapped around it. It moves a little North East over the next 12 hours but precipitation still falling over pretty much the same area. The question then is rain or snow? The afternoon temperature is quite low, especially the futher west you go and the thickness values are 528dam or below. Its a marginal set up but definately one to watch over the nexy couple of days.

I think yesterday may mark the start of a notable cold spell, especially given the time of year. Yesterdays upper temps will obviously be hard to better but no big warm up seems on the cards. A lot of parts got snow cover and there will be a hard frost tonight that will have a small impact/reductions on temperatures the rest of the week. The end of the week into the weekend looks really interesting for Scotland with pressure falling and colder uppers moving in again, the chance of more prolonged snow showers looks possible. Looks like winter could go out with a bang rather than a wimper.

Just had a 20 minute blizzard there that must have dropped almost 2cm. Thick flakes mixed with the wind whipping up the lying snow was great to see. -1.3c/-3.8c.

The next 10-14 days really do look cold and -14c uppers is quite remarkable. -1.0c/-4.5c.