Blizzardo

Moderate rain on now 4.4c. I'm expecting a high rainfall total over the next 12 hours.

Steady drop in temperature in the rain just now down from 5.7c to 4.4c in under an hour.

The models all indicate more of the same cool and showery theme as we move towards the New Year with the driver for this being a pretty solid looking Polar Vortex to the north of Canada. Pressure remains quite low to our north and quite high to our south and this pattern doesnt look as though it will change much over the next 7 days. The positives this morning would be the occasional chart showing marginal snow conditions, more particularly the further north you go, and there is no shortage of precipitation, so if things fall into place there could still be some heavy snowfall for someone over the next 10 days or so. Pressure is also predicted to rise a little over Greenland and ensembles also indicate a very gradual drop in temperature. Overall though no big changes showing yet.

Merry Christmas everyone! A few rain showers rattling in this morning with the last one turning to sleet. 4.0c/2.9c. I like the look of the ECM this morning with the trend being for small pressure rises over the Pole and Greenland forcing low pressure to our North West on a more NW/SE trajectory. This in turn is putting pressure on the vast area of high pressure over the near continent. It's baby steps just now but there does look like some potential for a gradual cool down and with that some opportunities for snow.

Most interesting weather of the day for me just now. Like others the wind is now gusting strong, it's raining heavily and the temperature is steadily falling. 4.3c/2.8c.

Snowing. Just a shower and may not last too long but looks good all the same. 1.8c/0.6c.

Snow lying on the hills above about 300m. Temp still dropping slowly 2.8c/1.8c. Sleet showers off and on over the last few hours.

Temperature currently 3.4c/2.3c and showers have now turned to sleet. Looks like snow falling now over the hills. Great weather watching day ahead.

I think this run is quite interesting. Having read the comments on the model thread there is a lot folk writing off December for any significant cold. Things can change quickly and it sometimes only takes one run to pick up a new signal.

Yip. I had a light snow shower and its given a covering of snow 0.0c/-1.0.

Looking quite frozen outside at 0.2c/-0.7c. Decent amount of shower activity to my north west. First night of radar watching of the season.

The first cold and frosty morning of this winter season. -1.9c/-2.6c.

A little snow on the hills overnight above about 1,000 feet. Currently 3.1c/1.0c.

A few more cold days to come but its looking more likely now that the embeded cold we've had in Scotland for a few weeks will move off as we go into the weekend. The continent is starting to warm up now and its unrealistic to expect the cold block to our east to not weaken. Given the deep cold in the polar regions just now its unlikely that there will be no more cold incursions as we go through the rest of April and into May. These are more likely to come from the north and north west moving forward.

There does look like there's a bit more energy coming our way that will be a big test for the cold pooling. Going through the models this morning it's also interesting to note that the cold uppers over Scotland have been extended by another day again and its probably Friday now before they move north of the mainland. The initial projected end to this cold spell was 29th March as shown on the GFS ensembles below and we are now looking at the 12th April according to the latest set this morning. It cant go on for ever but its been quite a remarkable cold spell.

Some heavy showers showing up now in the far north and this weather warning indicates that these should continue overnight and spread a little further south:- Outbreaks of sleet and snow are expected to affect the north of Scotland and the Northern Isles overnight, leading to accumulations of 2 to 5 cm on high ground perhaps locally 1-2 cm in places on low ground. In addition icy stretches on roads may pose an additional hazard. Any lying snow should thaw on road surfaces during Sunday morning. Looking further ahead Tuesday looks interesting with low pressure and associated fronts crossing central and southern parts of the UK with Scotland currently on the right side for some wintery stuff should precipitation get far enough north to cross the border. Something else that caught my eye this morning was the latest GFS 2m temperature ensembles for my location which would not look to out of place in a winter month.

A beautiful clear morning after an overnight low of -3.7c. Last week at this time we were looking at a situation where the models were pointing to the Atlantic breaking through at the end of this weekend bringing an end to the unseasonably cold weather. The ECM actually looked really bullish about this scenario. As has been the case many times over the last fews months as T0 gets closer things have started to correct themselves further south with the cold stubbornly refusing to budge and the Atlantic looking weak and just not up to the task. If anything, over the last couple of days high pressure is building again over Scandinavia and Greenland giving signs of renewed northern blocking. The strong low pressure zipping across the Atlantic has almost gone and anything reaching us looks as though it will give some wintery precipitation before being deflected south east. The pattern change has again been put back to the middle of next week and I wouldnt be surprised to see this delayed further as time goes on with the cold upper air hanging on a bit longer yet.

I would always weight the ECM higher.

At the end of this week will either see a return of milder conditions or a renewed push of cold. Surprisingly it's the ECM that has the Atlantic pushing in with this being assisted by Azores high pressure that deflects the lows off the Atlantic north east and with it end of cold. UKMO and GFS are less progresssive with the Atlantic and allow enough of a block to form to to our west. If this played out there would be a decent chance of colder air flooding down from the north east. It looks very much 50/50 at this stage.

Another really interesting week for the weather coming up. Its starts with a continuation of the dry, clear conditions with low temperatures overnight but relatively pleasant during the day. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday it looks as though we'll start to pull in more of a North Easterly draw with the winds picking up a bit. There could be some showers developing for some although they may well be marginal (rain/snow) on low ground. Moving on to next weekend is where things are much more uncertain. Most models are currently going for the Atlantic making another attempt to break down the cold conditions but if things follow the same pattern as its last 2 or 3 incursions things may correct south as we move closer to the time so this may give more prolonged snow for some.

Cold and clear start to the day -3.4c/-5.5c.

There looks to be some signs this morning that the cold may start to lose its grip in just over a weeks time. The GFS gets milder from around 8th April, although if you are looking for a continuation of cold conditions you can take comfort from the GFS ensembles that show that the 0z was on the mild side in comparisor to the mean. However, the ECM is now starting to show milders runs around the 8-10 day mark and if you look at the northern hemisphere view you can see the PV starting to regroup which should bring a bit of life back into the Atlantic. The northern blocking also seems on the wane. Despite the last couple of weeks extending out the cold spell on an almost daily basis maybe this time more seasonable conditions are finally on the way.

Some light snow showers pushing through and there could be some more to come as the day goes on. Looking across the model suite this morning there is no real sign of an end to the cold conditions with some models hinting of a renewed push of cold in around a weeks time. This is a long way off and highly likley to change but this is an example from the GFS that a couple of days ago was going for mild conditions at this timescale.

Cheers, I didnt think it would get as far north though. The next questions are how far north will it get and will it stall.

The line of snow continues to trundle north and is now touching the Forth. Hopefully it can keep its intensity as there's a long line of showers behind it running out into the North Sea.