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beefy201

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Posts posted by beefy201

    Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Alex Deakin for the Met O as the completely opposite forecast to BBC

    He states as we go into the evening the rain will increasingly turn to snow

    7BCBEDA7-D7D5-4C3C-9551-3C2D61D9D2B9.thumb.jpeg.74bf9c7629db6fbf9985edef1ce1676f.jpeg 

    MO_Master_W.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn UK weather forecast map - Met Office

    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
    Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

     

    But there is very little precipitation around it’s all heading NW

    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Good heavens.   If I'm reading that correct there is some patchy drizzle in the south east and snow sleet shows in across south Yorkshire into Cheshire. 

    What is this model please and its reputation

    Sorry spelt it wrong its the arpege I have found its precipitation forecasts the best this winter in my line of work, not to say  its always right mind you 

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

    Absolutely stunning run and with ECM upgrading too surely were reaching a consensus on the jackpot zones Sunday-Monday BBC forecast looked awesome also mentioned it continuing into Monday which matches these charts pretty well!

    Yes the SE is going to get buried .... cold and windy most other places with occasional wintry flurries 

    • Like 2

    Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Hope to see some North Sea troughs appearing on the fax charts soon. Assume it’s probably too early for that detail.

    Think you are right ... think we might get a few flurries from this ....thinks could change but our bite of the cherry dosent look good this weekend 

    Model output discussion - into the last third of January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's a great question . . . I learned how to read weather charts way back in the 1960s, when snow (and thunderstorms) either failed to show, or exploded out of nowhere, with little no warning at all, more times than I care to remember; so, from that perspective (or maybe habit, as short-range weather forecasting has advanced immensely, since then) . . .

    But, the models are something else: by combining the 500hPa anomalies and the run-of-the-mill daily outputs, you can get some idea of the extents of various airmasses and upper wind direction, over a much longer time period? But what you definitely can't do, is pinpoint detailed local mesoscale weather-phenomena, thunderstorms, snow showers et. al. 10-days+ in advance... deterministic chaos just doesn't work that way!

    But you can have bloody good fun trying!??‍♂️

    Like you I’ve been reading models since the 70s good old Alt sci days lol but don’t you feel everyone hangs on to the models like gospel is oldies know the best surprises are not even seen 24hrs out (snow of course)

    Model output discussion - into the last third of January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just a question as much as love the entertainment on here do you guys actually realise that most of the weather and in particular snow has not shown up further than 4 days ahead .... I can point to much of the snow fall last night as an example . Just for fun I have been comparing much of the hmmmm models chat on here for the last 8 weeks and also looking at the bbc country file forecast for the week ahead and to be honest shock horror not one has achieved more than 40% accuracy 

    • Like 4

    Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by beefy201

    So my Thoughts on Sunday’s front .... firstly it’s being driven by some very cold air and as yet is still not clear how it might fill and grow or which direction it may take .... however I feel it will be more potent than what’s beign forcast also I think the pivotal point of it may hang around for a few hours .... radar watching is the key but my guess is places slightly SW of Birmingham could be in for 3 -4 hours of constant heavy snow and  places slightly north and east of that an hour or 2 of similar.... all to play for and some good falls in place ❄️ ❄️❄️❄️ ❄️   

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