beefy201
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Posts posted by beefy201
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Could be a lot of nice surprises for west, south and north midlands later on in regards to snow fall ...if you like snow that is
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temps are warmer than expected so mostly sleet and rain
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7 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
Hi sir this is who you speak of!!!!! Good to hear you mate how's things? Where you working these days?
Enjoy the snow tomoz think you will have some i stand no chance living near evashum very low ground I'm gutted lol
Hi Mate great to see you
Fingers crossed for today. I am in micro climate Alvechurch do have a good feeling about the rest of this winter and you could well be in a sweet spot down in Evesham And you mark in mountainous Brum lol
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This front coming in has a very clean sharp edge to the back of it which is indicative of much colder air digging in
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Where’s your bro mark do miss his input tell him Mr Morgan is telling him to get his ass on here
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Temp risen to 4.2 and dew point to 2.5 from 2.2 and 1.6 so definitely rain to start
Alvechurch
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1 minute ago, Team Jo said:
If you are unable to support your one liner or cannot keep your emotions in check I really suggest you head into banter to moan or even better just step back from the models for a couple of hours.
Writing off the winter in January is totally ridiculous. Let’s just nip that in the bud.
Hi Jo, mine was a tease in reaction to the over reaction to the slightest pattern change many apologies
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With most squabbling over in the model forum I can announce I have seen my first snowflakes of the winter from the showers coming from the northwest!!!! Nice surprise tbf and shows that looking at t6000 lol is no substitute for window watching
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6 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:
To think all those multi millions spent on models and super computers when they could have just been watching the behaviour patterns of snow geese, the amount of berries on the trees and what someone's mates cousin said down the pub.
Not quite my point but love your sarcastic humor
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3 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late.
Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer rea-justs to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations,
Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas.
This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face.
Have a good one
I think to put too much emphasis on model outputs is fraught with pit falls I tend to rely on old school methods and gut instinct. Never let you down yet have I SSIB .
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Forecasters near the mark really we were in the yellow zone for snow and ice met office is performing shockingly at the moment and have been for the last 16 months
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Well it is raining here in Alvechurch bit surprised when local weather station is showing 0.5 c with a dew point of -0.8
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My personal un- educated view there’re a few hot spots that might get some surprise snow falls this weekend
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Blue army I don't have confidence in the models 4 days away let alone 4 weeks !!!! its not the finer detail I am interested in which switches every run on the models its quite unusual larger scale synopitcs that are playing out.
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A very dreary typical mild run up to Christmas just a few glimmers of frost for the lucky few.... I do believe the models are showing some very tasty synoptics on going into early January watch this space
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2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Agreed, looking south
some nice echoes on the radar.....
Its all due to tilt and head N.W though hence the red warnings in south wales and west country
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wales weather .webs hasn't been used for 5 years
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This band is starting to fragment now, never mind the mod thread will defiantly swear gospel a cold spell is on its way again soon...... this cold spell has produced 2 nights at 0c and a sugar dusting of snow thank god for my thermals :-)
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A wet and windy week for majority of uk next week is my interpretation ......
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Rather disappointed to see the slaying that Siberian icy blast took from a member this morning he actually is a well informed young man who knows a lot when it comes to model analysis. Me an older foggie is constantly amazed at the knee jerk reaction to day to day model changes , my time analysing both professional and other wise teaches me to look learn and listen ..... sorry just needed to get that off my chest ?
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17 minutes ago, fat chad said:
It's what makes this forum so great. If you can detach yourself from the dramatics and toy trowing when it usually doesn't go to plan, then you can enjoy an educated thread...
Agree with everything you say except educated lol
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I do love this thread I really do but if some of you guys looked back 3 weeks ago to what was expected today and lookout the window then look out the window in 3 weeks today and your comments today hmmmm
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how come rain always finds its way into the midlands but snow never does
some nice echoes on the radar.....
Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Hit and miss to the east in my humble opinion but you might get a slice of the pie in Melton.