Wilxy

Its not over yet either more storms developing behind!

I think he means whether it will keep along the current area or if a new area of storms will develop further west or east?

I would say the GFS is about right if that is to be believed expect storms around Exeter by 3pm!

I'm still waiting for Estofex to release a forecast I'm surprised they have not issued one yet!

That definitely won't happen Bristol has a storm shield it will destroy it before it even gets close!

Looks the same to me nothing has changed at all which is a relieve someone correct me if I'm wrong?

Trying not to get my hopes up but its hard when you have all the forecasts going your way but at the end of the day it never goes to plan so I'll be prepared to go chasing tomorrow evening if I have to

Couldn't have picked a better week off from work plenty of storm risk for many areas for Tuesday and Wednesday! Interesting! Also means I can chase at any time which is a bonus.

Well the plume forecast for Tuesday night has been showing for around 5 days now and has been consistent which is worrying as I can't remember the last time the models correctly forecast a plume!

12Z has little change still going to plan for Tuesday night into Wednesday!

Looks a lot like the 27th May at the moment but, plenty of time for change so still not getting my hopes up.

2 years ago to this exact date what a night that was!

When was the last time a MCS hit the SE inland as I can't remember the last time?

sat outside Swindon but thinking of turning back home as don't want to travel all the way to Kent!

I'm waiting for the next euro4 output in the next 30-45mins that will decide it for me I think as it did a good job on Friday night

Getting darker to the south!

I got a headache so many different forecasts I have no idea where to go, some saying its going to be a kent clipper others saying it will be further west going to be a nowcast for now on!

Looks like I'll be chasing tonight as I have a gut feeling most of the action will be further east just not sure where the best place to go any recommendations?

Its part of the plan it should clear north of us by evening then its all eyes to are south!

Day 1 Convective Outlook: Sun 28 May 2017 VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 May 2017 ISSUED 14:33 UTC Sun 28 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan *Update at 1430z on Sunday to shift the main empahsis a little further west due to model trends* Upper trough approaching Iberia will advect a plume of high ThetaW air northwards across southern Britain through the course of Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Destabilisation of this plume is expected, with upper forcing combining with isentropic upglide to allow areas of elevated thunderstorms to develop and expand in coverage - at least for a time - before general weakening/reducing trend is anticipated later in the night. Current thinking is activity will develop around the 19-22z timeframe over the English Channel / Channel Islands / SW England, growing upscale as the whole area of potential shifts NE-wards through the night. Steep mid-level lapse rates and reasonable CAPE suggests lightning will be notably frequent with any thunderstorms, especially farther east where such parameters will be more favourable. As is often the case in such situations, there is some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution and position of areas most likely to experience thunderstorms - as such, the exact position of the SLGT/MDT is subject to some alterations. Some hail and strong gusts of wind will be possible with some of this convective activity.

Does anyone have any fax charts for tonight as the ones on weather online don't seem to work anymore?

I wouldn't worry yet any storms that do happen never were forecast to come up from France but instead develop either over the channel or near the south coast like what happened Friday night Saturday morning

New strikes near bognor regis

Turning darker to my south!