Wilxy

Least they don't show the GEM soloution but what does the chart below show as i'm a novice to understanding what it means

Heavy wet snow lansdown!

I've seen a cross model agreement on a easterly as close as 72h then one of the models have a complete flip and sent more energy over the top so its not a done deal! can't remember what year it was but wasn't that long ago couple of years!

00z 06z Looks fine to me although looked a risker run as more shortwave drama over the top of the high pressure, but we still end up over colder uppers!

Wait for the ensembles first could be a massive outliner

People forget that the 12z is one run and the 6z was brilliant so i'm waiting for more runs along with the ensembles there is a awful lot of uncertainty could go either way at this stage! At least its pointing in the direction of more seasonal starting from tomorrow

Well looking at the GEFS and ECM ENS there really isn't a strong signal for cold weather for at least another 10 days yes I do understand that could change but I'm only seeing what it currently shows, so when someone continues to post a cold chart its no longer from the GFS which everybody was trusting when it was showing a blocked end of month to early start of December which is why I find it hard to believe when people trust long range models for months ahead when the charts still chop and change for 10 days ahead so i'm sitting back and enjoy what this winter has to throw at us because its going to be a long winter at this rate! So today I'm not posting a cold chart so I don't expect any likes which is fine because i'm only posting what the charts say and I can't be bothered to go through every ensemble just to pick out a cold chart and say there is still hope, winter hasn't even begun yet and people are already upset, some of the best winters don't even start until after Christmas so its pointless getting annoyed already, there are a few factors that support a colder winter like the weaker polar vortex, ENSO netural or weak La Nina, North Pacific starting to cool down, overall I'm feeling more confident in colder spells this winter but if people are looking for a winter like 1962-1963, 1942-1943, 2009-2010, December 2010, there very rare and its funny when I see people try to compare weather patterns to that year, nothing is impossible but its very unlikely.

Just saw another flash to my west with thunder!

and another! wasn't expecting that.

thunder and lightning in Winterbourne!

2 things less blocking over the pole but also lost the heights to the south so that would suggest a southerly jet tracking which is good news!

Over 100mm of Rain over the Welsh border if 18z verified just as well its still a week away so hopefully wouldn't be as bad as shown here!

And going by the ensembles its a similar story across all of them!

Morning all. I'm just enjoying a week away in North Devon, Woolacombe, but can't stay away from the charts! But I have noticed a big shift to a new blocking high setting up somewhere around Greenland or Iceland, whilst I know there is caution with that as previous years overdue heights around Greenland this year has proven to be very different! And yes your right I did cherry pick but who doesn't! As far as I'm aware this is what most people wan't to see unless your against cold weather which can't be many people considering winter is the busiest time at netweather

What about the warmer waters south of Greenland no tripole this year though so its a tad different to me?

Evening. Looking through the GFS and ECM tonight, there is clearly some uncertainty in how close low pressure will get to the SW. GFS is showing spells of showery rain moving north across the country. Also milder air moving north but with colder air never far away! ECM looks less unsettled away from the SW as the block of high pressure causes the low to undercut towards Spain. ECM also has slightly warmer uppers at the same time frame as GFS. Overall its been a very interesting and unusual October so far and that doesn't look like changing in the near future.

Friend reporting a storm just out to sea on isle of wight!

Some great WAA into the Arctic and Greenland, although I fear this is to early to have a impact as the vortex doesn't usually get going until the end of October.

So overall its been a good day for storms but one thing that has surprised me is the lack of storms further SE across the home counties etc central areas was the place to be today!

Well what an afternoon that was glad I made the journey towards Swindon and I have never seen it so dark at 2pm even the street lights came on at one point plenty of thunder and lightning to be seen and whilst traveling through the area there was a lot of surface flooding but I'm happy with that storm fix for now hopefully won't be long before another chance comes along as plenty of time for storms, can even see storms like today until October if the setup is right. Some picture I took whilst out earlier.

Gone dark again to the south of swindon!

Wow!

Lightning visible now glad I drove east now

Picked a good spot nearly right under that lot heading towards Chippenham and it's very high up

Almost constant thunder to my south