Wilxy

Good morning. Mostly Cloudy, with strengthening winds and have already recorded a 30mph gust with rain not far away. Davis Vantage Vue: 9.7°c, 81% RH, Dew P 7°C 1014.6mb falling rapidly, no rain, Yet!

What app is this :).

Hello All. Last night the temp got lower than I imagined here with a low of -7.0. Cloud and milder air is approaching from the SW so nothing on this scale again for a while it seems.

Hello Everyone the 12z runs are upon us so lets all relax and put the toys away its still looking cold for a time next week the models will always struggle with cold set up's and yes perhaps there will be some changes to the outlook by the end of next week but that is still a very long way off especially in a complex set-up that is showing currently and I can't wait to see the roller-coaster arrive this evening as I feel it will surprise us again whether that be a colder or less cold outlook. So what are we looking for to a backtrack to something remarkable, better wave activity heading up to Greenland and further east like UKMO output, less short wave drama around Iceland, and most importantly how the Azores low/Tropical storm behaves. Again I'll share the ECM ENS and also the GFS Ensembles. Clearly there is more uncertainty than yesterday but that is to be expected really even at the range of the uncertainty in a cold set-up and the ECM operational was at the top of the milder ensembles, same as the GFS operational and control run so going by this evidence its a case of waiting for more cross agreement across the models before we start to panic. Anyway enjoy the charts/models and be happy that we are finally seeing something a bit more seasonal at least for next week.

Hello Everyone! Nice to see the 18z last night was a blip, although not ignoring it completely, thought I would share the ECM ENS Ensemble 850hpa Graph Attached below for anyone interested in comparing to the operational run. Red Line: Ensemble Mean Black Line: Operational Run The Ensemble mean is looking colder than last nights run

Hello All. Thought I would throw this in as its quite interesting comparing the latest ECM with its Ensembles its not far off with a lot more uncertainty past the 13th of January. Black line is the operational ECM Red line is the Ensemble mean.

I already know I was just wondering if people get the same results or whether it's a isolated problem.

I did give it a clean the other day and cleaned the little mesh bit but this is a ongoing problem and was trying to compare to others to see if this is a Davis thing or if my sensor is going faulty my temperature is fine just the humidity that seems off

Hello everyone. For a while now I have noticed that my vantage vue humidity records lower levels of humidity compared to other stations around my area I know the console has a in built calibration but it does fine in mid range humidity but when it goes above 90% it struggles to get any higher than 95% the highest I have ever seen it go is 96% on a very foggy morning while other stations were reporting around 97-99%. If anyone has a vantage vue I would like to hear from you to compare. Thank you.

I'm looking forward to the return of unsettled weather as this anti cyclonic weather can get a bit boring after a while.

A damp morning after showery bursts of rain overnight 10.4mm of rain recorded overnight.

11mm on the dot as the rain pivoted right over the area during the afternoon and evening.

yeah there is shower development behind the main band of rain these will move towards the SE later this afternoon into this evening.

I can see it!

Hilarious I must say things went from nothing to big storms in a matter of minuets 2 weeks ago, its only just coming up to 7pm its looking great for the SE of England and the first signs of activity kicking off is happening right now to my North and East!

That is true but any storms that do develop further west would only be pulse type storms whilst further east it would be more organised.

Looking brilliant for the SE already with storms developing in the English channel! Looking good for the Isle of Wight eastwards later.

Looks very poor on latest gfs for western areas i think heading east is a safer option at this stage i think oxford is going to be a good place to start.

I think Oxford would be a good start point but lets be honest its going to be a case of waiting for developments.

What is the difference between 300hpa winds and 850hpa winds?

Tonight is going to be a headache for storm chasers including myself not even sure where to head to.

This is exactly my plan as well because the nature of the direction the storms will generally suggest that the M4 will be a very good route to intercept storms moving north

At least its being realistic

Fair enough but there is one thing I don't understand what is the trigger because the energy is modelled further SE?

Yet all the ingredients for storms are in the SE not really going to listen to the BBC that's for sure.